Fantasy Football Outlook: Puka Nacua, Courtland Sutton, Kyren Williams, James Cook

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

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Fantasy Football Outlook

James Cook: Cook continues to hum along as Buffalo’s lead ball carrier. He’s the RB16 in fantasy, averaging 18 touches and 111.3 total yards, playing 59-62% of the snaps weekly. Cook has been explosive this year, ranking 12th in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He is 14th in route run per team dropback rate, 12th in target share, and 17th in YPRR among 45 qualifying running backs. The biggest issue Cook is having isn’t volume or pass game usage but the work near the goal line. Cook has only 33% of the red zone rushing attempts and one carry (of the seven total inside the five carries) inside the five-yard line. Cook will have to grind out tough yards this week, but his usage lines up pretty well with what Miami has issues defending. The Dolphins have given up the 12th-fewest missed tackles per attempt and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but they have been vulnerable to gap runs. Miami has allowed the ninth-highest yards per carry (4.72) to gap runs (Cook 79% gap). Miami also has given up the fourth-highest yards per reception to running backs, so if Cook doesn’t get it done on the ground, he can through the air. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Courtland Sutton: Over the last two weeks with Jeudy in the lineup, among 98 qualifying wide receivers, Sutton ranks 35th in receiving grade and 31st in YPRR. He has led the team with a 25.1% target share and a 30.4% air yard share. He’s also dominated end zone targets with three of the team’s four end zone targets in this stretch. Over this two-game span, Sutton has seen a whopping 29.2% target share and 25.0% first read share (second to only Jeudy) against zone coverage (2.17 YPRR). Sutton will run about 74% of his routes on the perimeter. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3

Kyren Williams: Williams has been Sean McVay’s new “Todd Gurley.” He has played at least 95% of the snaps in each of the last two games, averaging 16 touches and 82.5 total yards. His role has been impressive, but his level of play hasn’t been. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Over the last two weeks, he has led all running backs with a 77% route run per team dropback rate. In that same span, he’s second in target share (18.2%), but he’s only 31st in YPRR. With his every snap role and pass game usage, he’s an every-week RB1, but this matchup will be tough. Indy has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate while having the eighth-highest stuff rate. They have held backs to the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Colts have allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to running backs, so that’s a small feather in Williams’ cap. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Puka Nacua: Nacua is the WR7 in fantasy, commanding a 31.7% target share (fourth-best) and a 31.3% air-yard share. He ranks 12th in YPRR and fourth in first-read share. All of those numbers should bump even higher this week against Indy’s zone-centric defense (at least 80% of their corner’s snaps). Against zone, Nacua has a 37.0% target share, a 38.1% air-yard share, and a 43.9% first-read share (3.44 YPRR!). Nacua will run about 63% of his routes against Juju Brents (60% catch rate and 67.1 passer rating) and Dallis Flowers (61.5% catch rate and 107.2 passer rating). Get ready to shotgun a gallon of Puka Juice this week in celebration of another banner day. Week 4 Positional Value: Locked-in WR1