Hello and welcome to the Week 3 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here is the full article.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Wide Receiver Usage
- In the game of “one of these receivers has to catch the ball,” several Houston Texans wide receivers have stepped up to carve out a role for himself. Starting with Nico Collins, who has earned 20 total targets so far this season and is averaging an incredible 2.86 yards per route run along with a 0.61 WOPR thanks to his 13.5-yard aDOT. This past week, Tank Dell was worked in much more heavily as he led the team with 10 targets and ran a route on 86.5% of Houston’s dropbacks. Finally, Robert Woods is currently leading the team in route participation overall and has just one fewer target than Collins. I was trying to find something negative to say about Woods, but all of his peripheral stats are more encouraging than I would have expected. Still, though this appears to be a bit of a crowded room, I’m more willing to go in on the younger wide receivers and sell the aging veteran.
- Action: buy Nico Collins, hold Tank Dell and Robert Woods
- When the Giants traded for Darren Waller, everyone expected him to act as New York’s true WR1 and, well, that seems to have been the case as there isn’t a single wide receiver with a target share above 20% (Waller is at 20.3%). Truly, it’s bleak for Giants wide receivers because there also isn’t a single one running a route on more than 80% of the team’s dropbacks. The only one I’m holding out some hope for is Darius Slayton who has commanded 34.7% of the team’s air yards and, with his 172% target share, has a modest 0.48 WOPR. Isaiah Hodgins does have the team’s only two end zone targets this year (both came in Week 2), but with just eight total targets the volume isn’t there for me to want to burn a roster spot on him. Jalin Hyatt may be the only one I consider keeping an eye on based on his one deep reception Sunday, but I need to see more than just a 26% routes run rate before he clogs up a roster spot.
- Action: hold Darius Slayton and play him only as a deep flex option, drop all other Giants wide receivers
- Today’s theme is wide receiver corps with ambiguous situations entering the season and our final group under the microscope is that of the Carolina Panthers. Both Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo look to be the two primary receivers in this group, as they’re the only players to have run over 90% of routes in both games this season. Mingo appears to be operating as the team’s deep threat, with a 14.8-yard aDOT and 43.7% of the team’s air yards. Regrettably, that resulted in Mingo catching just three of his eight targets for 26 receiving yards. Terrace Marshall, who was at a 95% routes run rate in Week 1, was seemingly replaced by *checks notes* DJ Chark in Week 2, but Chark only got one target. If it were me, I’d be trying to evaluate my young receiver than give fruitless snaps to a journeyman receiver, but I suppose that’s why I’m writing this in my mom’s basement and not in an NFL front office. Unfortunately, Bryce Young‘s accuracy (59.2% completion percentage this year) and overall decision-making are keeping the ceiling on these receivers at about the same height that Young is. Mingo’s 0.60 WOPR is enough to keep me interested with the hope that, as Young develops, he continues to build a chemistry with his fellow rookie.
- Action: buy Jonathan Mingo, hold Adam Thielen, drop the remaining Panthers wide receivers
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