Fantasy Football Outlook: Michael Pittman, Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson

Hello and welcome to the Week 4 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here is the full article for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few players.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

At face value, a matchup between the Patriots and Cowboys with a 42.5-point game total doesn’t scream shootout, but the pace at which these teams play would suggest otherwise. The Cowboys and Patriots are first and second in seconds per play and have posted the fourth and second-most plays per game on offense, respectively. New England also ranks third in neutral-script no-huddle rate at 17.1%. I have few doubts that Dallas will be able to move the ball against New England with an offense that ranks top eight in EPA per play, success rate, and EPA per drive. But, the biggest unknown about whether this game can get over the 43.5-point total is if New England will be able to move the ball against the Cowboys’ ferocious defense. That said, New England’s offense hasn’t been as abysmal as it might seem as they’re near league-median in offense series conversion rate.
- Action: bet over 42.5 total points
One thing I had my eye on this past weekend was how Indianapolis would approach their pace of play without Anthony Richardson. Fortunately, the Shane Steichen-led Colts remained fast-paced with Gardner Minshew under center. The Colts are now just one of five teams to have played faster than expected in all three games this season. Indianapolis also has the 2nd-highest neutral-script no-huddle rate at 18.2% – an astonishing number for a team with a rookie quarterback. While Colts players may not get there on efficiency, they should have ample opportunities – their 66.7 non-overtime plays per game ranks 15th in the league, which is solid for a team many expected to have a non-functioning offense early on. Two players in particular, Michael Pittman and Zack Moss, have benefitted greatly from volume this year. Pittman is one of just four receivers with double-digit targets in every game he’s played while Moss’ 90% running back touch share on the Colts leads the league. It will remain to be seen what happens to Moss’ workload when (or if) Jonathan Taylor returns, but I don’t think he’ll be thrown to the side immediately.
- Action: buy Michael Pittman, hold Zack Moss, and buy Jonathan Taylor (if you’re off to a good start and can afford some risk)

Team Pass Rates

This past week the Cleveland Browns had their first game in the post-Nick Chubb era following him tearing his MCL. In that game, Cleveland posted a 4.4% PROE, which was the fourth-highest mark in the Kevin Stefanski era (and the highest since bringing on Deshaun Watson). While Chubb missing the game may have been a large factor in that, it also may have been part of the game plan against Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense. In any case, the biggest beneficiaries of this increased passing have been Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. Both of them have 25 targets on the season and at least seven in each game this season, but they have two very different roles getting targeted at different levels of the field. Regretfully, the slight increase in passing hasn’t proliferated to David Njoku, who has just 10 targets and a 1.8-yard (!!!) average depth of target. If it were me, I would be targeting one of the most athletic tight ends in the league slightly further downfield. Because of this, his floor is low and his ceiling is extremely limited. I consider Cooper and Moore the only two worth considering in starting lineups going forward.
- Action: start Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, sit (or drop) David Njoku
For better or worse, Eric Bienemy is letting Sam Howell sling it. Washington’s 6.7% PROE currently ranks second in the league while their neutral-script pass rate of 58.4% ranks sixth. This is all well and good, but Washington also has one of the least-concentrated passing attacks in the league. Despite passing attempt totals of 31, 39, and 29, only one Commanders pass catcher has recorded more than seven targets in a single game (Logan Thomas had eight in Week 1). What’s most shocking about this is that Washington’s routes are tightly condensed between Jahan Dotson (95.1% routes run rate), Terry McLaurin (80.2%), and Curtis Samuel (73.2%). Those three players make up 48% of Washington’s targets, but the issue is that Howell is targeting running backs and tight ends on 46.7% of his attempts this year. Last year there were just two teams, Baltimore and Kansas City, to target wide receivers on less than 50% of targets, and they both have elite tight ends. I expect the distribution of targets to some of Washington’s best play makers to even out in the long run and, should they continue to pass this much, you can get most of these players at a solid discount.
- Action: buy Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, and add Curtis Samuel