Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.
In recent years, targets and target share have become important to how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.
Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.
Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from the week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems.
Fantasy Football Outlook
| Name | Team | Att | Air Yds | aDOT |
| Jordan Love | GB | 44 | 517 | 11.75 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | 58 | 477 | 8.22 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | 44 | 456 | 10.36 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | 38 | 412 | 10.84 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 50 | 397 | 7.94 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | 44 | 348 | 7.91 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 37 | 346 | 9.35 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 49 | 344 | 7.02 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 47 | 319 | 6.79 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 33 | 317 | 9.61 |
There were some interesting results among the top 10 quarterbacks in air yards last week. Five of the top 10 leaders in air yards finished as top-11 fantasy quarterbacks. The other five finished 20th or worse in fantasy points. Of course, plenty of factors contribute to fantasy success besides air yards. For example, Tua Tagovailoa only had 150 air yards last week, but I don’t think any of his fantasy managers are complaining about his overall QB2 finish. The same sentiment goes for those with Lamar Jackson (189, QB3) and Patrick Mahomes (223, QB5).
Jordan Love led the way in Week 3 air yards as he led the Green Bay Packers to a spirited fourth-quarter comeback in his first start in Lambeau Field. The issue for fantasy managers is that the volume (44 pass attempts, nine rushing attempts) is not something the Packers want Love to replicate every week. Love had more air yards last week than he had in his previous two games combined. Having said that, it was an impressive performance without arguably the team’s best running back and best receiver against a good defense. Both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are questionable for Thursday night’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. Improved consistency may mitigate lower volume if Jones and/or Watson are in the lineup. I expect Jordan Love to be a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Week 4.
Matthew Stafford is the only NFL quarterback who has finished in the top 10 in air yards in all three weeks. Yet, it has not quite translated into fantasy points. Stafford is airing it out quite a bit. However, the veteran has just two touchdown passes to show for his efforts. His 1.6 touchdown percentage is 33rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Hopefully, some positive touchdown regression is headed Stafford’s way. Perhaps the eventual return to actual of Cooper Kupp can assist in that endeavor. Stafford and the Rams face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most passing yards this season. I expect the Rams to continue their pass-happy ways in this game, which should create a path for fantasy points for Stafford in what could be a sneaky shoutout in Indianapolis.
-Mick Ciallela
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