Hello and welcome to the Week 4 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here is the full article for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few players.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Tight End Usage
- Luke Musgrave is primed to break out one of these days. The rookie tight end leads the Packers in routes run rate at 83.2% and doesn’t have a game running a route on fewer than 80% of dropbacks – only four other tight ends can say that so far. Musgrave had seven total targets in the first two weeks only to earn eight targets in the Week 3 comeback victory. Unfortunately, Musgrave does not have an end zone target yet this year, but his 11.5-yard average depth of target ranks second among tight ends with at least 10 targets this year, so the big plays will come eventually.
- Action: buy Luke Musgrave
- Dallas Goedert has been frustrating to have on fantasy teams, to say the least. Following his Week 1 goose egg, Goedert has recorded back-to-back games with seven targets. This has led to just 11 catches for 63 yards and no touchdowns, though. Currently the TE32 in half-PPR leagues, Goedert still has some solid peripheral stats. Goedert is one of the four other tight ends I mentioned above that’s running a ton of routes the 14 targets he has in the past two weeks are good for a solid 25% target share in that span. These combined are exceptional for a tight end, but he’s averaging an abysmal 2.1 yards after catch per reception so far this season, which is 3rd-worst among tight ends this season. That said, being on a team with a near-even PROE and a highly concentrated passing attack makes me more bullish on him than another tight end whose name rhymes with Pyle Kitts.
- Action: hold Dallas Goedert
Quick Hops
- Zach Charbonnet saw a season-high 11 opportunities and 44% snap share in Week 3. While this backfield is dominated by Kenneth Walker at the moment, a couple of weeks down the road we could see Charbonnet become more of a 1B option than the RB2. Your buy-low window may close sooner rather than later.
- Not a single Jets player is startable while Zach Wilson is the quarterback. The string of defenses New York has faced so far – Buffalo, Dallas, and New England – are no easy opponents, but a Wilson-led offense is putrid.
- Jordan Addison’s route participation has risen in every game this season, topping out at 80% in Week 3. Similar to Mattison, the rate at which Minnesota passes has me bullish on Addison’s ROS outlook.
- Sam LaPorta has been incredible so far. He’s one of just three tight ends with at least five catches in every game this season. He’s a top-six tight end rest of season.
- Jimmy Graham (nine routes run) caught a touchdown and Usher was announced as the Super Bowl halftime performer on Sunday. Apparently, I’m back in high school?
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