Fantasy Football Outlook: Luke Musgrave, James Cook, Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs

Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Along with snap counts…

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

Green Bay Packers

Buy Luke Musgrave, Christian Watson, Jordan Love, Sell Romeo Doubs

Again, it was a pretty flat target distribution with Romeo Doubs leading with 12 targets. 5 grabs for 73 yards and 1 TD. Tight end Luke Musgrave was solid 6-49 on 8 targets, despite a very tough matchup. Love missed him deep on a seam route that could have been a TD. Bodes well for him for the rest of the season. Both guys played 86% of the snaps which leads the Packers’ skill players. Buy low on Musgrave ahead of the Lions’ matchup on Thursday. The upcoming schedule is juicy for the entire Packers offense: Lions, Raiders, Broncos, Vikings and Rams.

Credit to the Packers for rallying to pull off the 18-17 win at home. They were dead in the water but left a lot of the production on the field. So even though they benefitted from a missed field goal, New Orleans had a number of opportunities to put this game out of reach.

A.J. Dillon was bad and saw his snaps dip to 51% from 68% in Week 2. Touches also decreased in a negative game script. The Lions run defense has been much better dating back to last season, so he needs to be benched in most cases even if Jones doesn’t play in Week 4.

This team/offense needs Aaron Jones‘ explosive playmaking. Dillon continues to underwhelm as the team’s starting RB. 11 carries for 33 yards. Dropped for a-7 loss at the start of the second half with zero big rushes to make up for it from my perspective.

I’d also say the team could use Christian Watson as another explosive element. He’s missed three games to start the year with a hamstring injury, but remains a buy-low like last week in my estimates. Again, Watson’s biggest fear for drafters was tied to Jordan Love. But three games in, he has earned the faith of his coaches and teammates. Fantasy managers should also buy in. He only threw one TD, but Jayden Reed dropped an easy one. Reed dropped two TDs, with another coming up short right as he was hitting the goal line. Love would eventually score a rushing TD on a QB scramble.

Every week this offense takes shots downfield that don’t connect because it’s another receiver not named Watson on the receiving end. Dontayvion Wicks is running the routes that Watson will most likely see and he’s a 5^th-round rookie from this year’s draft.

With Doubs’ production very good in two of his three games, he is an entertaining sell high based on his three red-zone TD receptions this season (tied for league-lead with Donald Parham Jr.) and Watson’s return hindering his weekly production.

Both Doubs and Reed have four inside-the-10-yard line targets, which suggests Love is fueling his receivers with high-value targets. Bodes extremely well for Watson upon his return.

Buffalo Bills

Buy James Cook

Running back James Cook came away with another great outing on the ground versus a fierce run defense. 15 carries for 98 rushing. 62% snap share was an increase from the first two weeks.

Sucks he doesn’t get red zone usage, but he’s a set-and-forget fantasy RB2 with his efficient play and three-down skill set. Because he ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (267). And he got tackled inside the 5-yard line in the fourth quarter. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Sean McDermott has been vocal about being physical and more balanced on offense, and we are seeing it three weeks in.

Cook is an easy-buy candidate with a schedule featuring Miami, Jacksonville and New York (Giants) over the next three weeks.

Gabe Davis had one catch (35-yard TD in the first quarter) on four targets (13%) with the classic boom-or-bust WR3 stat line. He caught another TD but was ruled out of bounds.

Davis only has a 14% Target share after three games. Still an auto start next week in a projected shootout.

After Stefon Diggs, the Bills’ target distribution flattens dramatically.

But stay assured that it will be an all-hands-on-deck offensive game plan for Buffalo in Week 4 when they host the high-flying Miami Dolphins offense in Week 4. Dawson Knox remains a frequent target for Josh Allen in the red zone.

-Andrew Erickson