Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.
In recent years, targets and target share have become important to how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.
Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.
Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from the week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems.
Fantasy Football Outlook
| Name | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | aDOT | Air % | Tar % |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 9 | 5 | 41 | 107 | 11.89 | 36.77% | 23.68% |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 11 | 8 | 78 | 87 | 7.91 | 22.77% | 23.40% |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 11 | 8 | 84 | 87 | 7.91 | 31.07% | 35.48% |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | 8 | 6 | 49 | 76 | 9.5 | 14.90% | 18.60% |
| George Kittle | SF | 9 | 7 | 90 | 68 | 7.56 | 42.77% | 26.47% |
| Darren Waller | NYG | 7 | 3 | 20 | 68 | 9.71 | 33.50% | 21.88% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 8 | 7 | 69 | 54 | 6.75 | 21.69% | 21.62% |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL | 8 | 5 | 37 | 53 | 6.63 | 18.21% | 21.05% |
| Cole Turner | WAS | 7 | 4 | 35 | 52 | 7.43 | 25.37% | 24.14% |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 4 | 3 | 41 | 48 | 12 | 21.43% | 14.81% |
The good news is that Kyle Pitts is the only tight end to appear on this list in each of the season’s first three weeks. The bad news is that it has not yet translated into much fantasy production. Pitts enters Week 4 tied for 20th at the position in fantasy points. He has yet to finish inside the top 15 in any single week thus far. However, not all hope is lost. Pitts is tied for the team lead in targets, and he leads the Falcons in air yards. He also leads all tight ends in air yards while ranking among the top 10 at the position in targets. Perhaps we need to adjust our preseason adjustments when it comes to the Falcons’ passing game. But I still believe Kyle Pitts can be a fantasy asset.
Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions is one tight end who continues to exceed preseason expectations. The rookie has been a TE1 in 12-team leagues in each of his first three weeks in the NFL. That is no small task, even playing a position that is not always known for fantasy output. Last week was the first in which LaPorta placed on the air yards list. He has been a reliable target underneath for Jared Goff, and last week was the recipient of a deep ball that went for an easy score. LaPorta has proven he can score fantasy points regardless of his aDOT, which is promising for his fantasy prospects. His Week 4 matchup in Green Bay is not ideal, but I would continue to roll LaPorta out there unless I had an obvious better option. And, no, that does not include Kyle Pitts.
-Mick Ciallela
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