Fantasy Football Outlook: Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Deshaun Watson

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the TE18 in fantasy points per game despite all of his usage metrics pointing to better days ahead. He is first in route run per team dropback rate (85%), eighth in target share (19.3%), and sixth in routes. The problem has been that productivity hasn’t followed as he’s TE20 in YPRR (among 34 qualifying tight ends). Pitts is the TE4 in XFP/game. Jacksonville offers Pitts a plus matchup to get on track. The Jaguars have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards, 11th-highest yards per reception, and the third-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1

Deshaun Watson: Watson looked better against Tennessee’s pass funnel defense last week, but we need to see if he can continue that level of play. His numbers have not been impressive, ranking 17th in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 19th in adjusted completion rate. Baltimore has a tough pass defense, allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt and 12th-lowest passer rating. The Ravens have surrendered the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Baltimore’s 24th-ranked pressure rate is painful, but they have been blitzing at the eighth-highest rate. If the blitz can get home, Watson is in trouble. He has the 19th-best adjusted completion rate and the second-lowest yards per attempt this season against the blitz. Week 4 Positional Value: QB2

Zay Flowers: Flowers has been the team’s WR1 with a 29.1% target share (ninth-best) and 36.5% first-read share (tenth-best). The issue has been that his aDOT is the fourth-lowest among 91 qualifying wide receivers, which has contributed to him ranking 32nd in YPRR. Flowers draws tough assignments this week, running about 69% of his routes against Denzel Ward (50% catch rate and 87.5 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (25% catch rate and 39.9 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR3 with more PPR appeal

Mark Andrews: Andrews has a 20.3% target share and a 15.4% air-yard share. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, Andrews has the 17th-lowest aDOT while sitting at seventh in first-read share (20.8%). Andrews has drawn only one target in the red zone (Flowers five). Cleveland is a nightmare matchup for tight ends this year. The Browns have allowed the fewest receiving yards, zero touchdowns, and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1