Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…
Along with snap counts…
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Cleveland Browns
Sell Jerome Ford, Buy Kareem Hunt
Jerome Ford has three carries in the 1st half. He finished with 10 carries for 18 yards on a 56% snap share but scored two TDs. He added 2 catches on 3 targets while leading the backfield in routes run. The matchup was brutal, so the bad efficiency was to be expected. Currently, he ranks 2nd-worst in the NFL in success rate (32%).
But the involvement from the other backs was puzzling. Pierre Strong got six carries for 27 yards (although the majority in garbage time up 27-3). Kareem Hunt (supposedly on a pitch count) got 5 carries for 13 yards after being signed this week (20% snap share). Hunt also had three targets on just five routes run. Also, I think it’s extremely noteworthy that Ford was not the first Browns player to earn a carry. Or the second. Or the third. Elijah Moore, Hunt and Strong all carried the ball before Ford’s first carry on the second drive.
If this is “RB1” usage for Ford, you must sell high after the 2 TDs. The schedule sucks and there is a bye week in Week 5. Ravens, Bye Week, 49ers and then Colts. If anything, I’d buy low on Kareem Hunt. Looked decent in the game after no training camp. He’s clearly the RB2 ahead of Strong. Only imagine he gets better as he gets acclimated to game speed.
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Bijan Robinson, Sell Kyle Pitts
I expected more fireworks in this game…but got a dud instead. Atanta’s offense didn’t show up. Held under 50 total rushing yards. The Falcons were horrible on third down (4-14) and missed a field goal. They got an interception down 13-3 with a chance to put points on the board. But Ridder was constantly harassed, and he needs a clean pocket to be effective. He was sacked seven times. And just not enough plays were made by the Falcons receivers. Tight coverage, but you’d expect more from both Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
What’s more terrifying is the fact that Kyle Pitts saw a team-high 9 targets…but still finished with just 5 catches for 41 yards. First target? Deep play action toss for Pitts that Desmond Ridder overthrows. The issue with Pitts isn’t the role. 89% route participation and 78% snap share. He’s running a route on nearly every dropback. But the chemistry between Ridder and Pitts is just not present. Three weeks in, Pitts is averaging three catches for 33 yards on 5.6 targets per game from Ridder.
Ridder attempted 38 passes in Week 3 but completed just 21 for 210 yards. 38 attempts for a Falcons QB are the most since the Matt Ryan era…
Jonnu Smith was also heavily involved for the second straight game. 8 targets and 5 more catches. Woof.
Bijan Robinson was disappointing but maintained his role as a receiver with 4 catches for 27 yards on 6 targets. Started and saw 8 touches in the first half. Saw the first target in the game. Led team with a 22% target share through three games. Also leads the team with 14 catches. Played 81% of the snaps in Week 3, and uptick from his 72% snap share in Week 2.
He’s a sharp buy-low target. The Jaguars (in London) and Houston Texans are next up.
Detroit Lions
Drop Craig Reynolds, Start Sam LaPorta, Buy Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions were equally as bad on third down (4-14) but hit on the few big plays needed to come away with the win.
No David Montgomery led to a big usage game for Jahmyr Gibbs. 17 carries for 80 rushing yards on a 60% snap share. Craig Reynolds earned just four for 15 carries (three of which came in the 4th quarter). Zonovan Knight out-carried Reynolds in the first half (2 vs 1) and was the next backup behind Gibbs. Knight is an interesting DFS option for the one-game Thursday night slate, as the No. 2 RB.
Gibbs only had two targets, but there wasn’t a demand given the big lead. Still, I’d view him as buy-low given his separation between the other RBs. Also, he earned four red-zone carries, but just failed to punch it in for a score. On a short week, I don’t expect Montgomery to be ready to return, slating Gibbs for another solid workload. Dan Campbell said in his post-game presser that Gibbs will only get better with time and more reps. He also thought Gibbs started to heat up as the game progressed.
So, after a game where Gibbs only scored fewer than 10 fantasy points…he’s a screaming buy with the arrow pointing up.
As for receiving, Amon-Ra St. Brown showed zero restrains from his turf toe injury. 9-102 on 12 targets. 94% snap share. 100% route participation. Sun God.
But the big story was easily Sam LaPorta stringing together his third great game. But this was by far the best, with the rookie tight end catching 8 for 84 and 1 TD on 11 targets. Set it and forget it. Welcome to the club Sammy ballgame. The team loves him. The coaches love him. And most importantly, Jared Goff trusts him.
Josh Reynolds was out there but just was not targeted. Still ran a route on 74% of dropbacks. 77% snap share. WRs goose egg on occasion, so I’d just chalk it up as variance.
Kalif Raymond‘s routes increased to 53%, as perhaps he is pushing for a bigger role on offense. Goff missed him on a big TD throw, that he would hit later on a few plays later to LaPorta. The Falcons defense was shredded by the Lions’ play-action passing attack.
Baltimore Ravens
Avoid Melvin Gordon
Gus Edwards got the start but left the game with a concussion. 11 carries for 51 yards on a 44% snap share. Next up behind him was Melvin Gordon with 10 carries for 32 yards on a 40% snap share. Also added two grabs. MG3 seems like next man up with Edwards out. Kenyan Drake played just 15% of the snaps and fumbled.
Justice Hill also missed this game.
But they play Cleveland in Week 4. Horrible matchup.
No Odell Beckham Jr. made Zay Flowers continue his hot streak. 8 for 48 on 10 targets (33%) while running a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
32% target share on the year. 5th in red-zone targets without a TD.
A lot of underneath and short targets with the Ravens not testing the Colts’ secondary downfield. Tight end Mark Andrews was not as involved with just 5 targets (17%). Still highly involved running routes – 87% route participation – so just target variance in my opinion.
Lamar Jackson didn’t do a lot as a passer but rushed for 100 yards and 2 TDs on 14 carries. Rashod Bateman is dealing with a hamstring injury, putting Nelson Agholor in a larger role (72% snap share).
Rainy conditions likely contributed to the lackluster downfield passing attack. But I wouldn’t be overly bullish on a major bounceback for the passing game with the Browns’ defense next on the schedule in Week 4.
Following that game would be the time to buy any depressed Ravens stock.
-Andrew Erickson
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