Fantasy Football Outlook: Josh Downs, Marvin Mims, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been struggling in the early going. He is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with the 15th-best adjusted completion rate while running 23rd in yards per attempt. This isn’t the type of production you hoped for this season after his scorching end to the 2022 season. This week’s matchup is no cakewalk, so we’ll all collectively hold our breath to see if Lawrence can start to turn things around here. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB1

Marvin Mims: Mims remains only a part-time player. No, I don’t know why Sean Payton hasn’t made the talented rookie a full-time player yet. Mims has the eighth-best receiving grade and leads all wide receivers in YPRR (minimum five targets). Over the last two weeks, he has a 10% target share, a 29.9% air yard share, and a 29.7 aDOT. He could have another banner day on limited volume on deep shots against a secondary that has allowed the seventh-highest passer rating and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate to passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield.

Anthony Richardson: Richardson remains a work in progress as a passer ranking 28th in passing grade and 16th in adjusted completion rate. In fantasy he remains a must-start QB1. He ranks first in fantasy points per dropback with his legs doing the heavy lifting. He is fifth in carries per game, first in red zone carries, and fourth in rushing yards per game. The Rams have been a spunky pass defense. They are also outplaying preseason expectations. Los Angeles has held passers to the seventh-lowets yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Richardson will be forced to compensate with rushing yards to aid his fantasy day which shouldn’t be a problem. Week 4 Positional Value: QB1

Josh Downs: Downs has played solidly as Indy’s starting slot. He has a 19.0% target share with 1.38 YPRR and a 20% first-read share. Against zone coverage this season, all of those numbers have dipped. Against off-coverage, Downs has a 16.9% target share with 1.1 YPRR and a 15.7% first-read share. This isn’t an encouraging trend. The passing attack has condensed around Pittman when the team has seen zone. Downs will match up Cobie Durant this week (71.4% catch rate and 101.5 passer rating). Downs has only one less red zone target (three) than the team leader Pittman (four). Week 4 Positional Value: WR4/5