Fantasy Football Outlook: Jordan Addison, D’Andre Swift, Chris Godwin, Dallas Goedert

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Chris Godwin: Godwin ha a 19.4% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, and a 25.4% first-read share. Tampa Bay has him running more routes on the perimeter this year. Godwin ranks 23rd in receiving grade and 43rd in YPRR (among 87 qualifying wideouts). Godwin leads the team with five red zone targets. If Lattimore is in Evans’ back pocket all day that means Godwin will see Isacc Yiadom (36.4% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3

D’Andre Swift: Swift has taken over as the team’s lead back. He has played 75% and 54% of the snaps over the last two games while averaging 24 touches and 159.5 total yards. Over the last two weeks, Swift has been the RB8 in fantasy. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate and tenth-best in yards after contact per attempt. Washington is not a run defense to fear in 2023. They have allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate while also logging the 12th-lowest stuff rate. They are also 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Dallas Goedert: Dallas Goedert has soaked up a 16.1% target share and a 9.9% air yard share. He has a 20.7% first-read share. His 5.3 aDOT isn’t doing him any favors this season (0.68 YPRR), but the real culprit has been his fall-off in YAC ability. Last year, he had 6.8 YAC per reception (ninth-best). That has fallen to only 2.4 YAC per reception this season. Against zone coverage, his target share has bumped up to 19.0%, and his first read share has increased to 25.7%, so we could see a few more targets heading in Goedert’s direction this week. The problem for Goedert is that Washington has been exceptional at defending tight ends so far this season. They have surrendered the third-fewest receiving yards and the third-lowest yards per reception. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1

Jordan Addison: Addison is inching closer and closer to benign a full-time player. Last week he saw his route run rate increase against from 71.7% to 76.4%. Just do it Minnesota. Get it over with. Make Addison an 80-90% route run per team dropback rate player. Your offense needs it. Addison also saw his target share increase to 16.0% last week (20.1% air-yard share). Among 87 qualified receivers, Addison is ranked 50th in receiving grade and 38th in YPRR. Addison ranks fifth on the team with only two red zone targets, so if he scores this week it will likely have to be on a long reception. Addison will run about 78% of his routes against Jackson and Henderson. Week 4 Positional Value: WR3/4