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Fantasy Football Outlook: Jerome Ford, Rashid Shaheed, Garrett Wilson, Dameon Pierce

Fantasy Football Outlook: Jerome Ford, Rashid Shaheed, Garrett Wilson, Dameon Pierce

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jerome Ford: Ford will be one of the top waiver wire pickups this week. The news of Nick Chubb‘s injury is devastating. With Chubb lost for the season, Ford takes over as the team’s starting do-it-all back. He played 49% of the snaps, finishing with 19 touches and 131 total yards as the RB6 in Week 2. Ford is a talented player, ranking sixth in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in elusive rating. Ford only had a 25% route per team dropback rate in the fourth quarter of Week 2 (Pierre Strong 15%), so he might not be the undisputed passing down back in Week 3. Tennesse’s run defense remains an elite unit. They have the third-highest stuff rate, second-lowest rate of runs of 5-plus yards, sixth-lowest missed tackles, and third-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Keep expectations in check for Ford this week. Week 3 Positional Value: volume-based RB2/high-end RB3

Rashid Shaheed: With every passing week, Shaheed continues to prove that his small sample rookie season efficiency majesty isn’t a fluke. He has a 14.3% target share and a 21.0% air yard share as the WR26 in fantasy. His output against zone coverage over the last two seasons has been incredible, with 3.73 and 3.44 YPRR. Shaheed and Olave are Carr’s paths to a ceiling performance on the back of deep targets. Shaheed is second on the team with four deep targets. He’s also a go-route savant. This season, he’s been targeted on 57% of his go routes and leads the team with four go route targets. Shaheed will run about 63% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas. Week 3 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside this week

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has had an amazing run out the last two weeks, with a touchdown-saving his day in Week 1 and a long touchdown in Week 2 doing the same. He has a 24.5% target share and a 48.5% air yard share, which is amazing until you realize it’s amounted to only six targets and 58.5 receiving yards per game. He can’t sustain this type of output as the WR23 all season with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson will run about 80% of his routes against Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 58.5 passer rating) and some combination of Shaun Wade and Marcus Jones (combined have allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 40 receiving yards total). Week 3 Positional Value: WR4

Dameon Pierce: Pierce has not been the workhorse that I hoped for entering the season. He’s averaged only 46% of the snaps, 15 touches, and 41 total yards. He’s losing routes and snaps to Devon Singletary and Mike Boone weekly. He’s not breaking tackles at the same rate as last season, but I have to mention that his offensive line isn’t helping him out. Among 48 qualifying running backs, Pierce ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. This is behind an offensive line that has managed the fifth-lowest yards before contact. Pierce’s prospects in Week 3 look bleak. He faces a Jacksonville run defense with the second-best stuff rate, missed tackles allowed per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Houston will have to move the ball through the air this week. Week 3 Positional Value: RB3

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