Fantasy Football Outlook: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Downs, Elijah Moore, Zay Flowers

Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.

In recent years, targets and target share have become important to how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.

Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.

Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from the week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Name	Team	Tar	Rec	Rec Yds	Air Yds	aDOT	Air %	Tar %
Elijah Moore	CLE	9	9	49	10	1.11	4.27%	29.03%
Rondale Moore	ARI	6	4	8	13	2.17	9.92%	28.57%
Parris Campbell	NYG	6	6	24	19	3.17	9.36%	18.75%
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	5	4	21	21	4.2	10.34%	15.63%
Zay Flowers	BAL	10	8	48	28	2.8	15.73%	33.33%

For this section of the air yards report, I will continue to focus on the wide receiver position. We know that running back and tight end targets generally occur within close proximity of the line of scrimmage. I will also continue to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume.

In each of the first two weeks of the 2023 season, two rookies appeared in this section of the report. One is Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks. The other is Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, we saw how much of an impact total targets can have when it comes to fantasy production. That is especially true when it comes to wideouts who are on the receiving end of short throws. Downs was targeted 12 times, grabbing eight for 57 yards. He finished the week as the overall WR36. Smith-Njigba was targeted just three times, hauling in one for 10 yards. He finished the week as the overall WR103. Neither player saw a huge shift in his aDOT last week. But volume remains king, and Downs was a beneficiary in Week 3.

Elijah Moore is a player to keep an eye on. His fantasy production has not jumped off the page so far this season. That may have some antsy fantasy managers on edge. However, his usage has been extremely encouraging. Moore has seen 25 targets and also carried the ball six times. His 31 total opportunities through three weeks put him in the top 15 among wide receivers. Sure, it would be nice to see Moore cross the goalline with the ball in his hands at some point. But I like his Week 4 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. This is the same club that just gave up that WR36 I spoke about earlier to Josh Downs. And that came without the benefit of a touchdown. Moore should be in the Flex conversation in Week 4.

-Mick Ciallela