Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Tua Tagovailoa: How quickly all those offseason concerns for Tagovailoa have disappeared. That’s what happens when you continually prove the doubters wrong. Tagovailoa continues to do just that. He is the QB4 in fantasy, ranking first in passing grade, tenth-best in adjusted completion rate, and first in big-time throw rate. The Bills are a formidable pass defense, but Tagovailoa can still carve them up. Buffalo has held the opposition to 20th in yards per attempt, but they have surrendered the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate. Buffalo has also had issues defending the deep ball. Last year, Buffalo defended the 13th-fewest deep ball attempts in the NFL, but they gave up the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate and ninth-highest passer rating on throw 20 or more yards. This season, Tagovailoa has the eighth-most deep attempts (tied) and the ninth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Buffalo is sixth in pressure rate, but Miami has allowed Tagovailoa to face the league’s lowest pressure rate. The Tua train continues to roll this week. Week 4 Positional Value: QB1
Javonte Williams: Williams’ snap share has remained consistent between 42-45%. It’s possible Wiliams could have seen a ramp-up last week, but the game got out of hand quickly. This could be the week we see his snaps trend up more. Among 59 qualifying running backs, Williams ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. The Bears might be a basement-level pass defense, but they are quite respectable against the run. Chicago has the ninth-highest stuff rate and has allowed the ninth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Williams 52.8% zone). Week 4 Positional Value: RB2/3
Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has seen his route run per team dropback rate between 76-81% since his return. This is a fine number that could continue to trend up. Since his return to the lineup, he’s second on the team with a 17.1% target share, but he’s leading the way heavily with a 30.6% first-read share. Since Week 2, among 98 qualifying receivers, Jeudy ranks 44th in receiving grade and 51st in yards per route run (YPRR). Over the last two weeks, Jeudy has drawn an 18.8% target share, a 21% air yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share against zone (2.17 YPRR). This could be a liftoff spot for Jeudy in Week 4. He will run about 67% of his routes from the slot. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3
Elijah Moore: Moore is second on the Browns in target share (23.5%) and first-read share. He has been utilized in a short-area role that’s not cutting the mustard. Among 87 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 51st in YAC per reception and 73rd in aDOT. Moore will run about 51% of his routes against Kyle Hamilton in the slot (66.7% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: low upside PPR flex
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