Fantasy Football Outlook: Javonte Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alexander Mattison, Ezekiel Elliott

Hello and welcome to the Week 4 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here is the full article for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few players.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Running Back Usage

I was originally going to write up Javonte Williams as one of my favorite buy-low players, but after digging deeper the stats don’t really back that up. Williams, who has earned a solid 59% of the running back touches, clearly is not Denver’s primary pass-catching back. Samaje Perine has run a route on 46% of Denver’s dropbacks while Williams is at just 30%. Though Williams started off strong with five HVTs in Week 1, he’s had just four total in the past two weeks combined. His 11.6 expected PPR points per game is respectable, but not what you’re looking for from a consistent plus starter. For now, I think Williams is a hold and should only be considered a starter in plus matchups (like this Week 4 against Chicago).
- Action: hold Javonte Williams
Now onto my actual favorite buy-low running back: Alexander Mattison. The Cam Akers trade (swapping conditional 2026 7th-round picks with the Rams) is nothing more than a glorified waiver claim on a running back who was likely going to be cut anyway. If you look at the running back depth the Vikings have behind Mattison, this type of flier makes a ton of sense. In any event, the case for Mattison is simple. Among running backs that have played in every game this season, Mattison ranks 3rd in running back touch share at 78% and is averaging over 18 opportunities per game. Mattison is also running a route on 55% of Minnesota’s dropbacks, which is huge considering the Vikings have a 6% PROE (3rd in the league) and figure to be passing a ton this season. While he hasn’t been particularly efficient, the workload is there and makes him a firm RB2 the rest of the way, even with another inefficient back joining the backfield.
- Action: buy Alexander Mattison
Let’s get one thing straight, the Cowboys don’t miss Ezekiel Elliott. What we do miss is Elliott not encroaching on Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload, which is exactly what has been happening. In two of three games this year, Elliott has been given at least 40% of the Patriots’ running back touches. Despite this, Elliott still hasn’t played on more than 40% of snaps in a game. The case for Stevenson is still strong, though, because he’s the clear pass-catching back with a 60% routes run rate and is earning four HVTs per game this season. As a final silver lining, it’s only Stevenson and Elliott getting work in this backfield as no other running back has gotten a touch for New England yet this season.
- Action: sell Ezekiel Elliott, hold Rhamondre Stevenson