Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare you for Week 4…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Takeaways

My Week 3 NFL rapid reactions…?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

• Waiver Wire Advice
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• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

Washington Commanders

Buy Brian Robinson Jr., Sell Jahan Dotson

Brian Robinson Jr. had a down game with the Commanders facing a major negative game script. This is definitely his floor, but at least he got 70 rushing yards on 10 carries. B-Rob’s lock on the RB1 job is basically a vice grip with Antonio Gibson constantly fumbling the ball. He lost a fumble after catching a pass and spinning (twice).

Just need to see Robinson earn a bigger role as a receiver so that he can become game-script-proof. This week is an example of when things go south (zero targets, 37% snap share). Although he did have one catch for 15 yards wiped off due to a penalty. Also got stuffed at the goal line which would have easily salvaged his fantasy outing.

AG played 61% of the snaps with the team playing catch up. He ran 28 routes to Robinson’s 6. Gibson totaled two carries and 3 catches on 5 targets.

Still, I’d say it was a net positive for Robinson managers that Gibson did virtually nothing with his snaps. Eagles up next is tough, but the Bears in Week 5 should be a soft spot for the Commanders to beat up on a bad team. If you sold last week per instructions, you were smart. Now the time to buy on the low presents itself.

Sam Howell was bad – four interceptions, nine sacks – and this was the fear with buying too much stock in Washington pass-catchers/this offense overall. Although the team was able to move the ball okay between the 20s, the sacks and turnovers nuked the points Washington could score. Had they been able to convert either red-zone drive into scores, this could have actually been a tight game in the fourth quarter. But the turnovers and pick-six buried the Commanders’ hopes in the end.

Terry McLaurin‘s proven enough that he can be a fantasy WR2 with bad QB play, but Jahan Dotson‘s ship may have sailed on his year 2 breakout. Three games in. Nothing about the opportunities he has gotten. Leading the team in routes hasn’t translated into fantasy production.

Without Logan Thomas, Cole Turner led the team in targets (24%). Although he was splitting time 50/50 with John Bates.

Kansas City Chiefs

Buy Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Sell Skyy Moore

I’m telling you guys. Rookie WR Rashee Rice. Second in the team with 7 targets, catching five for 59 yards. Fell at the goal line TWICE. Also ran a route on 51% of dropbacks with Patrick Mahomes – a big uptick from the two weeks prior. Snaps also boosted to 51% – although some of those did come in garbage time.

Rice’s constant ability to command targets just three games into his rookie year bodes extremely well for his long-term outlook. Four targets from Mahomes in the first half as well – second behind only Travis Kelce. Skyy Moore was targeted six times (four from Mahomes) for a total of 4 catches for 42 yards.

Rice is second on the team with a 12% target share through three games.

Isiah Pacheco continues to look explosive – 15 for 62 and 1 TD – so don’t overact to the final box score. CEH had four carries in the first half and vultured a goal-line TD (happens). Pacheco scored later on one of his 6 red-zone carries. Also saw two red-zone targets and led the backfield in routes run. He’s top-5 in red-zone carries through three games.

After CEH scored, he didn’t touch the ball until Blaine Gabbert was in at QB in the fourth quarter. 11 carries with the backup QB. Buy Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon won’t turn his three targets into two TDs every single week. However, it should be noted that McKinnon’s schemed touches were likely due to the lack of Kadarius Toney in this matchup.

Just two routes for Toney in this game. That’s low even for Toney in a blow-out win.

Dallas Cowboys

Add Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Sell Michael Gallup

Tony Pollard carried the ball 23 times for 122 yards while adding in three more catches (86% snap share). Pollard continues to see extremely heavy work despite other Dallas RBs getting involved. Through 3 games, Pollard leads the NFL in red-zone carries (24). He only has two red-zone TDs. He also leads the NFL in total touches (pending MNF) averaging nearly 25/game. Also first in carries (62).

Rico Dowdle earned 7 touches on just 14% of the snaps. Make sure he’s not available on waivers as a high-end handcuff.

Dak Prescott spread the wealth with Michael Gallup, Jake Ferguson, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks all seeing 7 targets (19% target share). Gallup was the most productive going 6 for 92 yards (38% air yards share). Both Cooks and Gallup ran a full-time number of routes (80-plus %).

Been tough so far to identify the clear-cut WR2 behind Lamb three weeks into the season. Think Jake Ferguson is just the safest bet based on his consistent red zone role and propensity to be hyper-targeted by his QB (27% target rate per route run). He’s not running all the routes but did see his route participation jump to 61% in Week 3.

Arizona Cardinals

Sell James Conner, Drop Zach Ertz, Buy Marquise Brown

Always bet on the double-digit home dogs….

Arizona came up with the big home upset with James Conner operating as a bell cow per usual – 16 touches for over 100 yards and TD. 64% snap share.

He’s in the top 5 in touches this season and 3^rd in rushing yards. But I did think it was slightly noteworthy that we did see a little bit more action from the backups who combined for 7 touches. With SF up next, don’t hate the idea of trading Conner as a “sell high.” Also, his injury track record precedes itself.

WR Rondale Moore delivered an explosive run – a 45-yard TD. While also caught four balls on 6 targets. Still only played 54% of the snaps. Don’t do anything crazy on waivers! The SF 49ers are up next.

TE Zach Ertz turned back into a pumpkin (it is autumn after all) with just 2 catches for 6 yards on 2 targets. Played 52% of the snaps while running a route on just 64% of dropbacks. Snaps have dipped for three straight games. Not heading in the right direction for the 32-year-old tight end.

Conversely, Michael Wilson‘s routes increased back up to full-time (80%).

But the WR to own remains Marquise Brown. 28% target share this season and 44% air yards share. Both are top-18 in the league. Might be a sneaky buy-low with Arizona not being nearly the dumpster fire his draft ADP baked in.

-Andrew Erickson