Fantasy Football Outlook: Ezekiel Elliott, Quentin Johnston, Hunter Henry, Joshua Palmer

Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Along with snap counts…

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

New England Patriots

Buy Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Sell Ezekiel Elliott

We saw more of what the Patriots’ offense probably wants to be in Week 3. Playing in a more back-and-forth gritty game, Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing with 16 carries and 80 yards (38% snap share).

Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 19 carries for 59 yards and saw four targets (65% snap share). Ran a route on 73% of dropbacks. Third straight game with 18-plus touches. 6^th in the NFL in touches (pending MNF).

A workhorse that people may not realize they have.

Although the carry totals were pretty split, Elliott saw a lot of work in the fourth quarter when New England was trying to kill the clock and slow the pace of play. No hurry with them aware the other offense would not be scoring anytime soon.

Would view Mondre as a buy-low after a 20-touch game where the box score might suggest he’s losing his job to Zeke. He’s not. This game is also one of the few occasions where the Patriots will have the luxury of “feeding Zeke” when they are protecting a lead. This will not happen very often.

The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is tough, but the one area they are weak is against a team’s running game. Happened at times last season and hit them hard in their Week 3 upset loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

No Patriots receivers did much – Jets defense, rainy wet conditions – aside from a 58-yard TD to tight end Pharaoh Brown. All Hail! But seriously, he’s a third-string tight end who just happened to catch a long TD.

Hunter Henry is still the guy with an every-down role. Lead with a 19% target share.

Los Angeles Chargers

Add Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston

Joshua Kelley. I cannot believe my eyes. 11 carries for 12 yards. 1 catch for 5 yards. Came up just short on his two red zone carries. Currently ranks 6^th in red-zone carries. WOOF. 73% snap share did nothing, but LA may have no choice but to keep running it back with Kelley. Austin Ekeler may still be a few weeks away. Kelley’s biggest wart is that he doesn’t have the fruitful pass-catching role that Ekeler owns as the starting RB.

Keenan Allen with 20 targets. 18 catches for 215 receiving yards. Bro when he’s healthy…good lord.

Mike Williams offered the total experience. 7 for 121 and a TD (from Allen no less). But left the game with a knee injury that was confirmed to be season-ending.

I’m expecting a bump for Joshua Palmer, who was productive in Week 3 – 4 for 66 and 1 TD on 7 targets – with Big Mike out the remainder of 2023. Quentin Johnston also needs to be added in case he was dropped after a slow start. The first-rounder has been buried on the depth chart but should see his playing time increase dramatically with the Williams injury. Palmer is the “safe” add whereas QJ offers way more upside, but comes with a shaky floor based on his boom-or-bust profile.

I may have blown the Josh Kelley call…but tight end Donald Parham Jr. came away with 2 TDs including the 1^st one in the game. YLTSI.

Those were his only two catches and Gerald Everett got more involved with 6 grabs for 30 yards on 6 targets.

Everett played 58% of the snaps versus Parham’s 52%. Still think that Everett is the preferred tight end between the 20s but his upside is limited with DPJ as the favorite red-zone option. The Raiders are horrible versus tight ends, so it’s possible we could get Everett back into the streaming territory…but it’s fringe at best with the dual (and actually) triple TE deployment between Everett, Parham and Stone Smartt. The increase in tight end usage is likely related to Ekeler’s injury, as Kelley is not running routes at the same clip.

-Andrew Erickson