Fantasy Football Outlook: Drake London, Zack Moss, Ja’Marr Chase, Jameis Winston

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Drake London: London’s numbers are difficult to look at. The production does not match the talent level, sadly. When you watch his all-22, he’s open constantly, but with the current level of quarterback play and offensive design, he’s not getting the target volume he deserves. London has a 17.0% target share and a 23.5% air-yard share. That target share has amounted to only five targets per game and 1.08 YPRR (68th out of 91 qualifying wide receivers). London is tough to trust weekly. He will run about 85% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (69.2% catch rate and 78.0 passer rating) and Darious Williams (71.4% catch rate and 100.6 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR3/4

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase came alive with 12 grabs and 141 receiving yards last week and he could post similar numbers this week. Chase has a 26.2% target share, a 36.1% air yard share, and 1.72 YPRR. He also leads the team with a 35.8% first-read share. Against the Titans zone-heavy scheme (58-61% of their corner’s snaps), expect Chase to get fed. Against zone this season, he has a monster 31.3% target share, 43.1% of the team’s receiving yards, and a 43.4% first-read share. He also leads the team with 2.18 YPRR against zone. Chase will run about 74% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (69.2% catch rate and 111.7 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (87.5% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR1

Zack Moss: If you had told me that at Week 4, I would be writing up Kyren Williams and Zack Moss as two bell cows in the same, I probably would have called you a liar, but here we are. In each of the last two games, Moss has played at least 76% of the snaps while averaging 27 touches and 126 total yards. Moss ranks first in opportunity share, but he’s also 40th in weighted opportunity as the RB6 in fantasy. Moss is a “spinning top” back. While he ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, he is also 30th in explosive run rate and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. He has always been skilled as a tackle-breaker, but he lacks the juice to get much after he slings a defender to the ground. Moss faces a pliable run defense this week. Los Angeles has given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.32). 85% of Moss’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Jameis Winston: We know what this looks like, unfortunately. In 2021, with Winston making seven starts, the Saints turtled. They dialed back the pace and the passing rate and attempted to win games by running the ball and not allowing Winston to create turnovers. They were the ninth-slowest neutral-pace team in the NFL with the third-highest neutral rushing rate. Don’t be surprised if New Orleans does the same thing in Week 4 with an even better defense backing Winston this season. In 2021, Winston ranked 24th in passing grade, 31st in adjusted completion rate, and 15th in yards per attempt. Tampa Bay has been a tough pass defense, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the tenth-lowest passer rating. The one silver lining is their problems with stopping the deep ball. In 2021, Winston was 20th in deep-adjusted completion rate, but he had the seventh-highest deep ball rate, so New Orleans felt comfortable letting him take shots. That should also happen this week. Tampa Bay has given up the 11th-highest passer rating, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate on throws 20 yards or higher downfield. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB2