Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.
In recent years, targets and target share have become important to how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.
Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.
Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from the week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems.
Fantasy Football Outlook
| Name | Team | Tar | Rec | Rec Yds | Air Yds | aDOT | Air % | Tar % |
| Davante Adams | LV | 20 | 13 | 172 | 240 | 12 | 52.63% | 45.45% |
| DJ Chark | CAR | 11 | 4 | 86 | 188 | 17.09 | 40.26% | 19.30% |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 13 | 7 | 149 | 162 | 12.46 | 42.41% | 27.66% |
| Alec Pierce | IND | 7 | 3 | 43 | 161 | 23 | 46.94% | 16.67% |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | 12 | 5 | 73 | 157 | 13.08 | 30.78% | 27.91% |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | 12 | 7 | 85 | 154 | 12.83 | 33.77% | 27.27% |
| Mike Evans | TB | 10 | 5 | 60 | 149 | 14.9 | 56.44% | 40% |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 8 | 7 | 116 | 145 | 18.13 | 61.97% | 25.81% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 15 | 12 | 141 | 142 | 9.47 | 44.38% | 32.61% |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | 14 | 11 | 145 | 138 | 9.86 | 29.55% | 24.56% |
First, a message to anyone in any of my leagues. Tyreek Hill finished outside the top 10 in air yards last week. This is a definite sign of decline, and you must trade him to me immediately. Allow me to carry that burden for you for the remainder of the season. It’s the least I can do. OK, now that that’s out of the way…interestingly enough, there was a great carryover from air yards to fantasy production at the wide receiver position last week. Don’t tell that to Alec Pierce, who finished fourth in air yards and 65th in fantasy points. But the rest of the wideouts were all starting caliber, with eight of the top 10 finishing as top-20 fantasy wide receivers, including seven of the top 13 at the position.
Two sets of teammates finished inside the top 10 in air yards, and they are not necessarily who you would expect. Jimmy Garoppolo dropped back 49 times in last week’s loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a result, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers saw plenty of work. The pair was targeted on 32 of Garoppolo’s 44 passes. Adams scored twice, while Meyers failed to reach pay dirt. Still, he had a solid day at the office, catching seven passes for 85 yards. Meyers has double-digit targets in both his starts and looks like a value play in fantasy leagues. His Week 4 opponents, the Los Angeles Chargers, have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Not to be outdone, the Carolina Panthers drew up 62 (!) pass plays for (checks notes) Andy Dalton. The crazy thing to me is that Carolina was either leading or down by just one score for the majority of this game. Carolina’s pass-happy antics created big games for both DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. Chark had 86 yards and a touchdown, while Thielen turned back the clock with an 11-145-1 performance. It remains to be seen if rookie quarterback Bryce Young will be back in the fold for Carolina in Week 4. Regardless of who is under center, Chark and Thielen could be viable fantasy performers against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to enemy wideouts through three weeks. I prefer Thielen over Chark in formats incorporating PPR or half-PPR scoring.
-Mick Ciallela
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