Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…
Along with snap counts…
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Zack Moss, Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Add Josh Downs
Zack Moss with a low-key 30 carries in the OT victory (76% snap share). Also caught a TD. Workhorse until Jonathan Taylor returns. But who knows? Maybe JT still gets traded…setting up Moss to be a workhorse for the long haul. The worst-case scenario is he gives you another usable week versus the Rams in Week 4, if and when Taylor reclaims RB1 duties for the Colts.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the alpha with 11 targets (26%) and 9 catches for 77 yards. Absolutely beauty of a catch in overtime.
But rookie Josh Downs actually saw ONE more target (12) with Gardner Minshew at QB. Downs caught 8 for 57 (29% target share). Guy looks like the part of a shifty slot receiver.
Seems like Downs is carving out that No. 2 role behind Pittman. 84% route participation in Week 3, increasing from 77% in Week 2.
MPJ boasts a 31% target share through three games. Downs is second with a respectable 21% target share. A very concentrated target share is emerging in the Indianapolis receiving corps.
Alec Pierce remains nothing more than a deep threat that does more cardio than post-actual yardage. 161 air yards in Week 3.
Like last week, I’d be a buyer of Pittman. But I’d also add Downs into the conversation. The next matchups for the Colts include the Rams, Titans, and Jaguars. Teams that can and will yield passing production.
Denver Broncos
Buy Marvin Mims, Jerry Jeudy, Sell Courtland Sutton
What’s the best word to describe giving up 70 points? Boat raced? Curb stomped? Annihilated?
Denver had no answers – well most teams don’t – for Mike McDaniel’s offense. At least it was kind of close in the first half so Broncos players could get there for fantasy football. But that’s being generous saying that the game was close at the half.
Courtland Sutton finished with 8 catches for 91 yards on 11 targets (31% target share), and Jerry Jeudy went five for 81 on 7 targets. 9 of Sutton’s targets came in the 1st half.
Rookie Marvin Mims was super-efficient again – 3 catches for 73 yards along with a special teams score – on just 5 targets. Mims doubled Jeudy’s first-half targets (4 vs 2). Mims led all Broncos WRs in receiving yards in the first half (68). He played a grand total of 15 snaps (24% snap share). Same exact snap share as last week. At least he ran more routes (11 vs. 6).
Up to 28% route participation. Ahead of Lil’Jordan Humphrey!
Through three games, Mims has a 9% target share. In yet, he leads the team in receiving yards (195) and air yards (221). Sean Payton, your team is 0-3. Can we maybe have your best player on offense player more than a quarter of the snaps? Enough of the Brandon Johnson nonsense.
In all seriousness, I think we see Mims’ role increase sooner rather than later. The Chicago Bears’ defense is the perfect get-right spot for the Broncos offense, which honestly hasn’t been the team’s biggest issue. Add or trade for Mims ASAP before his snaps increase and he turns into his final form.
I’d likely do the same with Jeudy – target him as a buy-low guy ahead of a solid matchup. Sutton would be a sell-high because I am concerned his grip as the target share leader lessens as Mims/Jeudy gets more involved. Coming off a strong fantasy game, I’d be ahead of selling high. Bears are a good matchup, but after that it’s Jets, Chiefs, Packers, Chiefs again and then bye week. Broncos likely selling the farm at the trade deadline.
The Denver Backfield continued to be a mess 50/50 split and have zero faith this gets cleaned up. Javonte Williams with 11 carries, and Jaleel McLaughlin went over Samaje Perine with 5 carries (but mostly garbage time). Williams and Perine each saw 3 targets.
Williams will have RB1 upside in a plus-matchup versus the Bears in Week 4.
-Andrew Erickson
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