Fantasy Football Outlook: Christian Kirk, Russell Wilson, Jayden Reed, David Njoku

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

David Njoku: Let’s continue our lovely ride on the pain train. Njoku’s name value in fantasy circles has eclipsed his production this season. He’s currently the TE29 in fantasy points per game, immediately behind Tyler Conklin. He’s running a route on 75% of the team dropbacks, but that hasn’t helped Watson to look his way. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 27th in target share, 25th in first-read share, and 22nd in YPRR. This could be the matchup to get him going, though. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and third-highest yards per reception to tight ends. They had similar struggles stopping tight ends last year, giving up the most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE1

Jayden Reed: Reed has been incredible on a limited route volume. He’s only seen a 57% route run per team dropback rate. Among wide receivers with at least 25 routes (141 WRs), Reed is 24th in target share (23.5%), third in TPRR (38%), and 17th in YPRR (2.66). Reed’s role is holding him back. He’s stuck in a part-time slot role on a low-volume passing offense. Until he can break free and become a full-time player, his upside is capped regardless of how good he is on a per-route basis. Reed will run about 65% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (80% catch rate and 105.2 passer rating). Week 3 Positional Value: WR4/5

Russell Wilson: Wilson looks like he might be back and ready to cook. He’s 11th in yards per attempt, eighth in big-time throw rate, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. Wilson is the QB5 in fantasy. Let that sink in. Wilson is a top-five quarterback in fantasy right now. We’ll see if Wilson can keep the train rolling against a middle-of-the-road Dolphins’ pass defense. Miami is 15th in passer rating and 16th in adjusted completion rate allowed. The Dolphins have been getting after the passer, though. Wilson should have plenty of time in the pocket against a Miami pass rush that’s logged the seventh-lowest pressure rate. This is despite their front blitzing at the tenth-highest rate. Wilson has been solid against the blitz this season, ranking 13th in passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and fourth in adjusted completion rate. Week 3 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Christian Kirk: Which version of Kirk do we get this week? The player with a 60% route run per team dropback rate and 6.3% target share in Week 1 or the receiver with a 77.6% route run rate per team dropback with a 33.3% target share in Week 2. It’s a fair question. Kirk is more volatile depending on the personnel packages that the team chooses to deploy that week. Don’t be surprised if his Week 3 falls somewhere in the middle of the previous two games. He has a tough matchup on about 76% of his routes in the slot against Tavierre Thomas (100% catch rate and 88.9 passer rating), although it doesn’t appear so with the small early season data sample from Thomas. Week 3 Positional Value: WR3/4