Fantasy Football Outlook: Chris Olave, Justin Herbert, Rashid Shaheed, Tyreek Will

Welcome to Week 4 and now that we have three weeks of research, we can build a pattern to help us identify how to build our lineups across all fantasy football formats. Some of these stats may seem simple, but they will help you decide how to attack your lineup and what you may face in your opponent’s lineup. Please read through them all to guarantee success in your fantasy leagues. Here are all of the fantasy football stats to know for Week 4. And below we dive into a few notable players this week.

Stats to Know Before Setting Your Lineup

The Air Raid Attack Continues In New Orleans

Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and may be unable to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. If that happens, we have Jameis Winston waiting in the wings to help propel the Saints to a division victory. However, does that mean the offense needs to change with Winston under center?

We don’t believe so. Derek Carr had a deep throw % that was second in the NFL (behind limited plays by Mike White) at 18.5%. Jameis Winston, in his limited time, hit 12.5% in the same statistic. Winston may have a chance at a revenge game against his former team, although he only threw for 234 yards last time. This time, Jameis Winston has Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, a healthy Michael Thomas and a fresh from-suspension Alvin Kamara. Pay attention to this gunslinger if he has to take over the reins for Carr this weekend.

Happily Ever After In LA

The partnership between Justin Herbert and Kellen Moore is off to an incredible start for the 2023 NFL season. Herbert has landed himself in the early MVP talks with his stats and has shown he can lead an explosive offense. The LA Chargers’ offense has molded to Moore’s system, which leans on being aggressive and playing downfield. Let’s break down a few stats about Justin Herbert’s game.

First, Justin Herbert has increased his average target depth by almost two yards. Herbert’s ADOT is 8.37 in 2023. These stats reveal that Herbert will earn us bundles of fantasy points on every throw.

Herbert also utilizes the RPO game more this season (even with Austin Ekeler injured). Last season, Herbert used RPO 3.4% of the time. In 2023, Herbert used RPO 9.87% of the time. The beautiful part of an RPO game is how your first target is usually hyper-targeted on those plays. Usually, you hyper-target your best player. Enter Keenan Allen. Especially after the season-ending injury to Mike Williams, utilizing Keenan Allen will be critical to Herbert’s success. Right now, Herbert is completing 1st read throws at a 71.1% clip. As fantasy football managers, we should expect this pairing to reach Stafford/Megatron levels this season, especially with how Kellen Moore loves to use the slot wide receiver.

This pairing is a match made in heaven for the LA Chargers.

Tua To Tyreek Will Never Slow Down

The Alpha and the Omega of this article is the Miami Dolphins. Right now, as an offense, they are the beginning and the end of any statistical article. We just spoke of first reads within an offense and a quarterback who loves to target that first read. Well, Tua Tagovialoa is one of those quarterbacks. Tua targets his first read 80% of the time, and why wouldn’t he? His first target is Tyreek Hill and as we discussed before, they are using motion at an unreal pace. Stopping a speed demon like Tyreek Hill is hard enough before you add the extra motion. With Tua targeting Tyreek Hill so much, the opposing cornerback must also have world-class endurance to survive the whole game. The Miami Dolphins have taken speed to another level in the NFL.

Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter (X) at @jpep20. Good luck with Week four and let’s get those wins!