Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Calvin Ridley: Ridley was exceptional in Week 1, but since then, he has put a litany of missed opportunities on film. He currently leads all wide receivers in drops after a rough Week 3 performance. He is the WR13 in expected fantasy points per game (XFP/game), but the WR36 in actual fantasy points per game. Ridley has a 21.6% target share and a 37.5% air yard share with 1.75 YPRR. All of these are solid but not spectacular numbers. The bounceback could occur this week. Ridley will run about 58% of his routes against Tre Flowers (69.2% catch rate and 146.2 passer rating) and Dee Alford (80% catch rate and 139.0 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: low-end WR1
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is due for a monster game. He has a 14.7% target share and an 18.1% air yard share with 3.04 YPRR. Last year, Waddle chewed up the Bills, averaging 108 receiving yards with 5.53 YPRR. If Tagovailoa looks to go deep, yes, Hill will be the first look (nine deep targets), but Waddle will be next in line as he has four deep targets (second on MIA). Waddle will run about 70% of his routes against Benford and White. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2
Russell Wilson: Wilson looks like a player with a second life, with Sean Payton. He is tenth in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and 13th in adjusted completion rate as the QB10 in fantasy. Wilson should post another solid stat line against the Bears’ zone defense (55-67% zone for CHI’s corners). Wilson is 13th in passer rating and fifth in fantasy points per dropback against zone this season. Chicago’s pass defense has been a turnstile, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Week 4 Positional Value: QB1
D.J. Moore: Moore has a 15.9% target share and a 33.7% air yard share. He has amassed 1.70 YPRR with a strong 27.5% first-read share. Moore popped off with a 100-yard receiving day in Week 2 and secured a touchdown in Week 3. The signs of life in this passing attack are difficult to see at times. Moore remains a talented player, but he’s stuck inside of what looks like a broken offense. Moore will run about 83% of his routes against Pat Surtain lll (61.5% catch rate and 122.3 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (85.7% catch rate and 151.3 passer rating). Moore has accounted for 32.3% of the Bears’ receiving yards. He’s the only Chicago wide receiver that can be started currently. Week 4 Positional Value: WR3/4
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