Fantasy Football Outlook: Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, Logan Thomas, Miles Sanders

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Alvin Kamara: Last year, Kamara was the RB13 in fantasy points per game and the RB7 in expected fantasy points per game. He was fourth in opportunity share and first in snap share. I won’t be surprised if the Saints feed him an RB1-level workload out the gate in his first game back. Last season, among 42 qualified backs, Kamara ranked 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Those are not good, Bob. Not good at all. Let’s hope that Kamara flashes some of his former juice more regularly in 2023. The matchup with week is a good one for him to start this season on the right foot. Tampa Bay has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate while managing the tenth-lowest stuff rate. The Buccaneers are also bleeding out the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.0). Last year, 58.7% of Karama’s runs were on zone plays. Tampa Bay has also surrendered the 11th-highest yards per reception to backs, so expect Kamara to have a few nice plays when Winston throws to him. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Logan Thomas: Thomas should be back this week after missing last week’s action due to a concussion. In Week 1, he handled a 22.6% target share, a 24.5% air yard share, and a 22.7% first read share (tied for first on the team). Thomas has big-time upside this week. The Eagles have been bleeding out production to tight ends this season. Philly has allowed the third-most receiving yards, fourth-most receptions, and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1

Miles Sanders: Sanders has played 57-65% of the snaps weekly, averaging 17.7 touches and 69 total yards. Sanders is seventh among backs in routes run while also seeing a 14.0% target share (fifth) and the most targets among backs (tied). Sanders has been soaking up volume in all phases, but he’s been woefully inefficient with it. Among 59 backs with at least ten carries, he is 36th in explosive run rate, 53rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. Temper your expectations for Sanders this week. Minnesota is not a pushover run defense. They have held backs to the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. Week 4 Positional Value: Volume-based low-end RB2

Najee Harris: Harris has played 50-57% of the snaps over the last two weeks, averaging 15 touches and 54.5 total yards. What if I told you that we need to lay off the “Najee Harris isn’t explosive” narrative? Well, it’s true. This season, among 59 qualified backs, Harris ranks second in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. I know I’m as surprised as you are. Harris deserves his flowers, though. Houston has had issues defending the run again this season. They have the eighth-lowest stuff rate, the eighth-highest missed tackles allowed rate, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. The caveat is that they have defended zone runs well, holding rushers to the eighth-lowest yards per carry (Harris 54.3% zone). Week 4 Positional Value: Low-end RB2