Fantasy Football Outlook: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Michael Thomas

Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Along with snap counts…

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

New Orleans Saints

Buy Saints WRs/TEs, Sell Alvin Kamara

Derek Carr left the game in the 3^rd quarter with a shoulder injury. The Saints were up 17-0 at the point.

Jameis Winston took over. His 16 passes went as follows:

Target order:

• Chris Olave – 5 targets (31%)
• Michael Thomas – 7 targets (44%)
• Juwan Johnson – 3 targets (19%)
• Rashid Shaheed – 1 target (6%)

I’d expect Winston to be the starter for the foreseeable future, with the reports leaking about Carr that his injury is not season-ending.

As for the backfield, rookie Kendre Miller rushed nine times for 34 yards (34% snap share), but it was a split with Tony Jones (started) seeing 8 carries for 31 yards. Taysom Hill chipped in four carries. Jones saw the most targets (4) and played the most snaps (49%).

Would imagine that Alvin Kamara steps into the Jones role-plus, while also ceding carries to the rookie Miller. But the concern for Kamara managers is that even with Jamaal Williams on IR, how many targets is Kamara going to actually get?

When Winston stepped in, he targeted RBs on zero of his throws. Last year in his two starts with Kamara, AK41 averaged 2.5 receptions with 5.5 targets. But given Kamara’s major fall-off in receiving last season, I think I’d be a seller for those hoping he steps into some insane role. No Saints RB has seen an elite role outside Jamaal Williams in Week 1. And I’ve got more reservations with Kamara’s targets with Jameis Winston versus Derek Carr under center.

As for the receivers, I think getting Winston is an upgrade. I’ve never been the highest on Carr and through three games he posted a career-low 2.3% TD rate. Winston flashed big time chemistry with Michael Thomas during three games last season – particularly in the red zone – and it was apparent MT was his guy in Week 3. 7 targets once Winston entered the game in the second half. Also think Winston’s big arm is more accurate than Carr’s, so perhaps we can get more cash-in with the Saints’ uber-aggressive passing attack. Carr led the NFL in deep target rate through the first two weeks.

They also face the pass-funnel Buccaneers (Winston revenge game) in Week 4.

Not hopeful Juwan Johnson will turn it around. Jimmy Graham caught the red-zone TD without Foster Moreau active. Johnson ran a route on just 66% of dropbacks (73% last week). Told you to drop him last week. Leave him on waivers. He’s a TD or bust.

-Andrew Erickson