Fantasy Football Outlook: De’Von Achane, Tank Dell, Adam Thielen, Justin Fields

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Tank Dell: Dell is that dude. He immediately supplanted Collins as the team’s WR1 once he hit the starting lineup. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 22.1% target share (first), a 33.0% air yard share (first), and a 25% first-read share (first). He’s done all of this while producing 3.35 YPRR while running 70% of his routes on the perimeter. This is king-level stuff here. Don’t dismiss Dell anymore because of size, draft capital, or anything ridiculous reason. He can play, and he’s showing the world that, like Stroud, he’s the real deal. Dell will see Peterson and Wallace in coverage on most of his routes. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3

Justin Fields: Fields has been tough to watch. There’s no way around it. The Bears offense looks broken. He has the fifth-lowest passing grade, the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the highest time to throw. The baffling thing is that Fields still only has three designed runs this season. Three! I still can’t wrap my head around this. Last year, Fields had six games in which he had at least three designed runs. It’s like Luke Getsy decided to take away his quarterback’s best weapon this season. It’s head-scratching. Fields still ranks fifth in carries per game and eighth in rushing yards per game, so his rushing equity isn’t totally lifeless. If Fields can’t produce in this matchup, it’s time to consider cutting him to the waiver wire. The Broncos have a Swiss cheese run defense, as we saw last week, but their secondary has also been riding the struggle bus this season. Denver has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the highest adjusted completion rate. Week 4 Positional Value: Dice roll QB with top-12 upside

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR13 in fantasy with a 19.4% target share, a 23.5% air-yard share, and 1.7 YPRR. Thielen has a 27.9% first-read share while running about 72% of his routes from the slot. Brian Flores got back to his roots last week. The Vikings corners were deployed in man coverage last week on 62% of their snaps after spending the first two games in heavy zone coverage. Thielen’s numbers against man this year just made me double-take. He has a 42.3% target share, a 50% first-read share, and a 3.35 YPRR against man coverage this year. While the sample is small, those numbers are ridiculous and eye-popping. I thought that when I saw Minnesota’s heavy man coverage last week, I was about to break the bad news that Thielen would be shut down this week, but that definitely does not seem to be the case. Thielen will face Josh Metellus in slot coverage this week (92.3% catch rate and 125.3 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: Borderline WR2/3

De’Von Achane: Last week Achane went full legend mode. He played 41% of the snaps with 22 touches and 233 total yards. When the score was close in last week’s game, Achane outrushed Mostert (4-3) while getting both of the red zone carries. Mostert was the team’s passing down back. Achane can’t sustain the insane numbers that he posted in Week 3. That’s obvious, but his efficiency numbers are off the chart. He’s first in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Miami could lean on Achane more this week in the rushing department, as his usage lines up with how you destroy Buffalo on the ground. Buffalo’s run defense is bottom-two in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt allowed, but they specifically struggle against gap runs (Achane 52.6% gap). Buffalo has held zone runs to the 14th-lowest yards per carry, but they have yielded the highest yards per carry to gap runs (7.0). Pencil in Achane for 12-15 touches this week. Week 4 Positional Value: RB2/3