For those tuning into the usage report for the first time; the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the 2023 Usage Report for Week 2, to prepare for success in Week 3. The Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 3 slate. Here is the full article with all of my takeaways and actionable advice.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 2’s action.
Notable Fantasy Football Snap Counts
From Week 2.
To prepare you for Week 3…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 18, 2023
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Fantasy Football Forecast
Pittsburgh Steelers
Buy George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Sell Najee Harris
The Steelers’ offense struggled again on Monday Night Football, as their defense vaulted them to victory with key turnovers. In the first half they could barely move the football aside from a 71-yard TD catch to George Pickens (the only catch on his 5 first-half targets). Najee Harris had 6 carries for 4 yards in the first half. Harris carried the ball just four times in the second half, highlighted by rushes of 21 and 17 yards. He played 57% of the snaps and caught one of his three targets for 0 yards. Woof.
Jaylen Warren wasn’t great on the ground either – 6 for 20 rushing – but his pass-game usage was encouraging. He finished second with six targets and four receptions for 66 yards on a 43% snap share. Also started the third quarter over Harris as the two split routes run. Two straight weeks where Warren has been the preferred receiver.
Right now, it’s hard to justify buying low on Harris because his job security doesn’t seem great with Warren out playing him to start the season. But there’s no ignoring that the first two matchups of the year have been brutal, which is not the case in Week 3 and 4, between the Raiders and Texans. The Steelers’ offense isn’t working right now, so they are going to have to change things up if they want to get back on track.
If anything, I’d try to add Warren from another manager who thinks he is still just a backup.
Calvin Austin saw the biggest increase in route participation (88%) without Diontae Johnson. Pat Freiermuth also played more but was a complete afterthought with just one target. Snaps went up to 76% (51% last week) and route participation (84%) was strong. I’d buy versus the Raiders defense that ranks top-5 in receptions allowed to TEs through two games.
George Pickens stepped in as the Steelers WR1, earning a 34% target share and 60% air-yard share. Still, he only caught four of his ten targets. Other than the 71-yard TD, he went 3 for 56. All in all, a solid effort that should continue into Week 3 versus a beatable Raiders defense.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Zach Ertz
James Conner workhorse season. 23 carries for 106 yards on a 72% snap share. Not much receiving as the Arizona Cardinals were up big from the start, before collapsing in the second half. His backups had three carries. Given the desolate state of the RB position, Conner might be the actual best target on this roster in trade. Only hesitance is the schedule gets rougher in the next two games between Dallas and SF.
Marquise Brown was the target leader (10, 34%) with 6 catches for 54 yards and 1 TD. Zach Ertz was targeted heavily again (8) but just 6 for 56 yards. Nobody else saw more than 3 targets.
Ertz has an insane 30% target share over the last two games, giving fantasy managers a safe floor in the TE slot. But it’s just not accompanied by much of any upside. 6 grabs in back-to-back games.
The last note is that rookie WR Michael Wilson saw his snaps and routes diminish greatly from Week 1.
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