For those tuning into the usage report for the first time; the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the 2023 Usage Report for Week 2, to prepare for success in Week 3. The Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 3 slate. Here is the full article with all of my takeaways and actionable advice.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 2’s action.
Notable Fantasy Football Snap Counts
From Week 2.
To prepare you for Week 3…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 18, 2023
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Fantasy Football Forecast
Chicago Bears
Sell D.J. Moore, Add Roschon Johnson
Hope you didn’t panic about D.J. Moore. After two targets in Week 1, DJ Moore saw seven targets, catching 6 for 104 yards (25% target share). But with a tough matchup on deck versus KC and Fields’ bumpy start to the season as a passer – I think it’s fair to flip Moore after his big game if you can find a steadier WR target.
Chase Claypool actually saw more targets (8) and scored on one of his 3 catches (36 yards). His boosted playing time was a result of a Darnell Mooney knee injury.
Justin Fields also strangely rushed for just three yards on four carries. It was very unusual to not see Fields rushing. Lowest carry total since Week 11 of his rookie year (in a game he didn’t finish). Looks like a major outlier performance.
Seems like the Tampa Bay defense was dropping guys back to prevent him from scrambling, challenging him to beat them from the pocket. At times, Fields was able to deliver some nice throws – especially on the TD to Claypool. But there were also plenty of throws that he just did not make for whatever reason, instead holding the ball too long resulting in sacks. Moore was visibly upset when he was open and was not getting targeted, despite Fields having time in a clean pocket to deliver the ball.
The Bears QB is also getting buried by the media for his late-game interceptions, but I think the defender just made a nice play on the screen pass that turned into a pick-six.
As for the backfield, D’Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch. 7 carries for Herbert (60% snap share) 4 for Roschon Johnson (42% snap share). 3 targets vs 2 targets. Herbert ran more routes. Herbert started and played a higher rate of snaps than in Week 1. He is still Bears RB1. He came up 1-yard short of a goal-line TD on the team’s opening drive.
Johnson ripped off one big rush but was quiet other than that. Needs to be stashed, but don’t jump the gun on the Bears RB2 melting faces in fantasy football on a dysfunctional offense.
Speaking of which, Cole Kmet‘s usage tanked. 61% route participation in Week 2 after 88% in Week 1. Must imagine this has to do with the struggles across the OL. 97% snap share to 68% snap share in Week 2. Kmet leads the Bears with a 20% target share through two games, with 9 catches for 82 yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sell Christian Kirk, Buy Zay Jones
As for the target pecking order…Christian Kirk revival. 14 targets, 11 catches for 110 yards. I know Zay Jones missed some time (66% snap share), but Kirk stepped up. Led the team in routes run (86% route participation, 81% snap share).
Meanwhile, Evan Engram and Calvin Ridley each saw 8 targets. But Ridley was super inefficient, going 2 for 32. A few drops, broken-up passes and 2 near misses at the back of the end zone. Zay Jones goose-egged going 0-for-6. Trevor Lawrence just nearly missed him for a go-ahead TD in the second quarter and again at the start of the 4th quarter on two more throws. Jones essentially had the Tee Higgins game from Week 1. 31% air yards share. Nothing to show for it.
Will the real Jaguars WR1 please stand up? Seems like every week somebody will be left out.
Through two weeks: Ridley is the target share leader (27%), followed by Kirk (22%), Jones (18%) and Engram (18%). Ridley is also still dominating the air yards (36%).
The Jaguars pass-catchers are tough to sort through. But one thing is for certain. Travis Etienne is RB1 and faces a horrible Texans defense in Week 3. BUY. THE. DIP.
As for the receivers, I suggested selling high on Ridley a week ago. That proved to be correct after a down game. So, although every bone in my body says to do the same thing with Kirk, I think it’s best to wait out the Jones knee injury first. If we remove one core piece from this offense, I expect the other guys to feast. Just more of a reason to go after Etienne.
Also, I want to note that Jacksonville used 3 WRs WAY MORE in this matchup. Jamal Agnew‘s snaps boosted from 4% to 37%. Tight ends not named Engram, played a fewer percentage of snaps. Both played 39% or more in Week 1. It was fewer than 30% in Week 2.
It’s clear that Kirk was slated for a big game by design in this matchup, was an oversight on my part. He’s traditionally had big games versus the Chiefs – both games in 2022 – and I didn’t take that into consideration. Kirk’s role remains the most subject to change in the Jaguars offense. He played more out wide in Week 2 than he usually does, most likely due to the Zay Jones injury.
All in all, I think Week 2 was a perfect storm for Kirk. If I have to buy/sell, I’d probably sell. Because next week’s matchup versus Houston is the one that Kirk struggled immensely in last season. Two games, three catches total. However, should be noted that Texans starting slot CB, Tavierre Thomas, will miss time with a broken hand.
Still, I’d like to wait for the Jones’ injury update at least. And my final overarching point here…. The Jaguars offense struggled when it was built around targets to Kirk. So why would they repeat those efforts?
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