For those tuning into the usage report for the first time; the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the 2023 Usage Report for Week 2, to prepare for success in Week 3. The Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 3 slate. Here is the full article with all of my takeaways and actionable advice.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 2’s action.
Notable Fantasy Football Snap Counts
From Week 2.
To prepare you for Week 3…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 18, 2023
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Fantasy Football Forecast
New Orleans Saints
Add Kendre Miller, Drop Juwan Johnson
Jamaal Williams got hurt in this game (23% snap share) ending his day with nine carries for 29 yards. With Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara also out, the Saints turned to the two-headed monster of Taysom Hill (9 carries for 75 yards) and Tony Jones Jr. (12 for 34 and 2 rushing TDs). Nobody started Jones, so seeing him score twice is a killer for Williams’ fantasy managers.
Jones played 52% of the snaps, but that will likely come down with Miller expected back in Week 3. I’ve been waiting for Miller to get an opportunity, so I am adding him everywhere I can in case he gets a spot start in Week 3 with Kamara still another week away due to suspension.
As for the receivers, here’s what happened in Week 1. Chris Olave led the team with 10 targets (8-112, 30%) followed by Michael Thomas (8, 24%) and Rashid Shaheed (6, 18%). Olave was also the air yards share leader (34%, 129 air yards), while MT led the Saints in routes run (89% route participation). MT also saw two targets inside the 10-yard line. Juwan Johnson didn’t do much in the stat sheet but ran a healthy number of routes (84% route participation). Three for 36 on 5 targets will be his weekly floor with that deployment.
Week 2 was basically the same setup. Olave, Thomas and Shaheed were the three top WRs. Olave earned a 32% target share and a whopping 49% air yards share. 6 for 86. MT went 7 for 55, while Shaheed went 4 for 63. But no TDs, which has been an issue for Saints WRs for two weeks led by Derek Carr.
Olave owns a 31% target share through two games (42% air yards share) followed by Thomas at 25%.
Juwan Johnson is fine to drop, as he is buried as the fourth option in the target pecking order. 8 targets through two games.
Carolina Panthers
Buy Miles Sanders, Sell Adam Thielen
D.J. Chark‘s return to the lineup figured to provide a spike to a lifeless Panthers offense. Just two targets with one resulting in a pass interference. The target share leader was rookie Jonathan Mingo (10) but it was a lot of air yards (105) that resulted in just 26 receiving yards and three receptions after running a route on all but one of Bryce Young‘s dropbacks.
Adam Thielen came away with the TD score, catching seven of his 9 targets (29% target share) for 54 yards. Don’t need to tell me twice to sell high on a 31-year-old WR attached to a rookie QB.
Miles Sanders carried the ball 14 times for 43 yards while adding in three catches on 5 targets. The gap between him and Chuba Hubbard was larger than it was in Week 1, bolstering the case for Sanders as a more reliable RB2 – albeit in a bad offense. Sanders played 62% of the snaps (more than last week)
Hubbard carried the ball just twice for 16 yards, while also adding 5 catches for 34 yards (5 targets). He ran one more route than Sanders…but he didn’t touch the ball until the second half. The vast majority of his opportunities came during the final drive.
The volume and receiving is there for Sanders, with TD upside as his major flaw. But even so he’s averaged 16.5 carries and over 5 targets per game with his new team. He ranks 7th in total touches and 5th in opportunities.
And with the schedule easing up over Carolina after a tough start versus two divisional opponents. Sanders is one of the few RB2s that I feel confident buying with so many injuries at the position. Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, Miami and Houston are all defenses that can be run on.
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