Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Conner, Rachaad White

High-floor running backs are often difficult to pinpoint outside of the top options. A high floor typically means we trust a player; therefore, we’ll draft him in earlier rounds. To find high-floor options being drafted outside the top 12 at the position requires finding players that should have a steady, reliable workload combined with a mitigating factor that limits their ceiling. Everyone wants to have upside players that could be league winners, but those players come with risk. Rostering a couple of high-floor options can keep stability on your fantasy team or provide critical bye-week fill-ins.

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2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Four High Floor Running Backs

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

Aaron Jones is the quintessential high-floor running back. He operates in a committee where he rarely gets more than 20 carries in a game and yields goal-line opportunities to AJ Dillon. He typically sees around 200 carries in a single full season and has just six rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. But his receiving upside provides a strong floor, making him a reliable option you can draft as your RB2.

Despite sharing a backfield with AJ Dillon for the past two years, Jones continues to finish as an RB1. The last time Jones finished outside of the top 10 in PPR was 2018. Jones has one of the more impressive, consistent runs of success at running back in the league and remains a critical part of the Green Bay offense.

James Conner (RB – ARI)

James Conner is a special combination of a high-floor running back who also has a high ceiling and is being drafted as a low-end RB2. Skepticism around the Arizona offense and general bias against Conner’s injury history keep Conner’s ADP depressed, making him a fantasy unicorn. Although Arizona’s offense will be atrocious, Conner still has a reliable floor. Conner is a clear lead back with no competition behind him. Sheer volume gives him a solid floor even, and consistent usage in the receiving game ensures he cannot be scripted out of games when Arizona is playing from behind.

Kyler Murray was out the majority of the back half of 2022, and in Weeks 10 through 17, Conner was RB5 in PPR in total and average points per game, averaging 19.8 points per game. At his current ADP, fantasy managers get a good discount on his injury history, making Conner an ideal high-floor back.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

While Jones and Conner offer strong floors through proven production, high-floor running backs don’t require years of reliability. Rachaad White offers very little proven production but is still a high-floor option. Like Conner, White will likely operate within a subpar offense, and Tampa’s offensive line will continue to struggle with center Ryan Jensen lost for the season. White’s 3.7 yards per carry could repeat, and touchdowns may be limited, but White’s receiving upside brings stability to his floor.

Once he became a regular piece in the Bucs’ offense, White saw as many as nine targets in a game, typically four to five targets in games where he saw a snap count above 40%. That pace of work gives him a realistic baseline of top-10 in receptions at running back. In Weeks 10 through 17, White had just one game below nine fantasy points.

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

It’s tough to offer a high ceiling when you’re sharing a backfield with a rookie first-round pick with a prolific receiving upside. But Montgomery will operate as Detroit’s early down back with goal-line preference, giving him enough work to offer a floor of 10 to 12 points. Unlike Jamaal Williams – whose floor was abysmal in games without touchdowns – Montgomery offers a strong track record of three-down back capabilities, meaning he’ll likely see more receiving usage than Williams’ previous tenure. It’s also possible we see Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are on the field in tandem with Detroit’s receiving corps limited due to Jameson Williams‘ suspension.