Fantasy Football Defense Rankings & Projections: Week 3 (2023)

Week 2 is in the books and a picture is starting to form of which offenses are worth targeting with fantasy defenses, though there is still time for inexperienced quarterbacks to find their groove. Let’s check in on some:

• The Jets with Zach Wilson: Coach Robert Saleh has indicated that he doesn’t intend to bring in a new quarterback in the absence of Aaron Rodgers, so it’s the Zach Wilson show until further notice. This is great news for fantasy defenses. You can start any defense against the Jets and feel confident every time.
• The Texans with C.J. Stroud: Stroud has been a sack machine, leading the league with 11 so far. The offense hasn’t looked great either, scoring only 29 points across two games. I think Stroud will improve as the season progresses, but he has lots of room to play better and still be a good fantasy target as long as he keeps up the sacks, in the mold of Joe Burrow‘s first season or Daniel Jones‘s entire career.
• The Panthers with Bryce Young: The first overall pick has not impressed so far, failing to reach 20 points against the Falcons or the Saints, neither of which are particularly bad matchups. He hasn’t been a total disaster from a sacks and turnovers perspective. He remains a solid target for now, but a moderate step forward could knock him out of that category, and wouldn’t be a huge surprise to me.
• The Colts with Anthony Richardson: Richardson played like a bigger, better Justin Fields in Week 1, before exiting Week 2 early with a concussion. Of the three rookie QBs to have started in Week 1, he shows the most promise, but we might see a world where a mediocre overall offense and high sack rate make him a good fantasy target, despite scoring plenty of fantasy points of his own.
• The Commanders and Sam Howell: Howell is not a rookie, but he is a new starter after riding the bench his rookie year. He played pretty well in two good matchups against Arizona and Denver, but he also took 10 sacks between those two games. I’m still comfortable starting good defenses against Washington, like the upcoming Bills and Eagles.
• The Bengals and Joe Burrow: The Bengals have been awful so far as Joe Burrow plays through a calf injury. This is not reason to get excited for fantasy defenses. He’s still a top-tier quarterback when healthy, and the next defense I would even consider starting against the Bengals is the 49ers in Week 8, after the Bengals’ Week 7 bye. If they decide to sit Burrow for a week or two then that’s interesting – always target backups – but as long as Burrow starts I’m not interested.

Week 3 D/ST Projections

This is a good week for streaming. Many of the best offenses to target are in difficult matchups, and the Yahoo rostership numbers indicate there is a high likelihood a viable defense is available in your league. You can find me on Twitter.

Matchups

1. NE @ NYJ: We expected greatness (from the Defense’s perspective) from Zach Wilson last week, and we got it. His three interceptions made the Cowboys the #3 defense last week, the highest among teams without a defensive touchdown. That was a nightmare matchup and the Patriots defense is not on the level of the Cowboys, but they’re still must-start against the Jets (like most teams).
2. KC vs CHI: Rumors are starting to swirl that Justin Fields‘ time as the Bears’ starter might come to a close sometime this season, but he’s still the starter for now. Fields was bad last week, throwing two interceptions and taking six sacks, while only managing two total touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense terrorized Trevor Lawrence and the Jags last week with Chris Jones back in the lineup, and they should eat again this week.
3. SF vs NYG: Daniel Jones had good fundamentals last week – an interception and three sacks – but unfortunately (for the Cardinals) the giants got it together in the second half and ended up scoring 31 points. With Saquon Barkley out of the lineup for at least three weeks, it seems highly unlikely that the Giants will produce a similar performance against one of the best defenses in the league.
4. JAC vs HOU: C.J. Stroud leads the league in sacks taken, with six more last week at the hands of the colts, to being his season total to 11 sacks. If this trend continues, the Texans are one of the highest-floor DST machups in the league.
5. DAL @ ARI: Joshua Dobbs played well last week, completely avoiding sacks and turnovers while leading the Cardinals to 28 points in what was ultimately a loss to the Giants. The Cowboys defense is one you’re starting in all but the worst matchups, and the Cardinals are still nowhere near that category, despite last week. Vegas is expecting the Cowboys to dominate on the road, with the lowest points allowed projection of the week at just 15.75.
6. BUF @ WAS: Sam Howell and the Washington Team Formerly Known As The Football Team tore up a disintegrating broncos defense to the tune of 35 points. Despite that, the prognosis still looks good for a Bills team that shut down the Raiders last. A big factor is the fact that Howell still took four sacks in last week’s win, bringing his season total to 10, which is tied for second.
7. SEA vs CAR: Through two games, rookie Bryce Young has led the Panthers to just 27 points, while taking six sacks and turning the ball over three times. Those are not particularly exciting sack and turnover numbers, but this is looking like an offense that just can’t score reliably. I think the Panthers and Stroud are likely to improve a bit, but I’m perfectly happy starting a team like the Seahawks in a home game against the Panthers offense we’ve seen so far.
8. CLE vs TEN: Ryan Tannehill played well last week, registering a QB rating of 123.3, despite taking five sacks to avert disaster for anyone that started the Chargers defense. I expect worse from the Titans’ offense this week, as they go on the road to visit Cleveland. But there is some risk here, which is why the Browns find themselves in my second tier.
9. MIA vs DEN: Russell Wilson cooked last week, scoring 33 points but ultimately losing to the Commanders, when Denver failed to get the two-point conversion after a miraculous Hail Mary touchdown. That game was a great case study in how much sacks matter. The Commanders defense still ended up top-5 in fantasy scoring because Wilson took seven sacks, tying his career high. The Dolphins at home are a risky start with a high ceiling.
10. BAL vs IND: My current projections are based on the assumption that Anthony Richardson will play, following a concussion he sustained early in the game on Sunday. But we really don’t know. Richardson is an electric runner who remains to really be proven as a passer, and Gardner Minshew played well in relief last week. Baltimore is a low-end DST starter against either quarterback.

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