Erickson’s Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2023)

Here are a few of the players I’m avoiding in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 players to avoid.

Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid

Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | ECR: QB8, 58th overall ADP

Despite finishing as the QB8 in fantasy last season, there are valid reasons to consider Trevor Lawrence overrated as a fantasy quarterback for the upcoming 2023 season as the QB8 in average draft position (ADP) — 58^th overall (over a full-round increase from his June ADP).

Limited Fantasy Ceiling: Lawrence had a respectable point-per-game average of 18.6 last season but failed to exhibit a true 20-point-per-game ceiling. With fewer than 300 rushing yards and No. 10 status in expected points per game (on par with Kirk Cousins), Lawrence hasn’t shown the consistent high-level performance that justifies his current fantasy draft position. His 56% top-12 finisher rate from last season (sixth) suggests he is more of a floor player than a ceiling player as a more traditional pocket passer.

Consensus Projections: According to FantasyPros consensus projections, Lawrence is currently ranked as the QB11. The minimal point difference separating him from the QB9 (Kirk Cousins) suggests that Lawrence may not provide significant value as a QB1 option, especially considering the hype surrounding him. Cousins finished with a higher top-6 finisher rate last season (38%) than Lawrence. Lawrence’s top-6 finisher rate (31%) was the same as Tua Tagovailoa‘s in 2022.

Alternative Options: If banking on an outlier touchdown rate, it may be wiser to consider other quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith, both of who could provide similar production at a potentially lower cost. They are both projected to score within 5 points of Lawrence. But they are drafted several rounds after Lawrence. Investing in Lawrence based on his potential alone might not be the most advantageous strategy when there are other proven options available.

The best way to get access to this underrated Seattle Seahawks passing game is to just draft Geno Smith.

His hyper accuracy will make it easy for him to simply distribute the ball to his playmakers and watch them rack up the points.

His QB15 ADP is too cheap. I don't get it.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 21, 2023

Health and Team Factors: The Jaguars’ health advantage last season played a significant role in their overall performance. However, it’s important to note that such factors are not easily replicated year after year. Relying on the same level of team health may not be a reliable strategy for expecting similar fantasy output from Lawrence. Nor does an offensive line that looks primed to take a step back in 2023 (26th-ranked per PFF and PFN, 31st by FantasyPros). They lost Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs and their best OL, Cam Robinson, is suspended for the first four weeks of the season.

NFL 2022 regular season injury plot. Games missed to injuries and health protocols versus team wins. Bubble size represents cumulative quality of players lost for games (Lost-av metric) https://t.co/HBPgJxYIPz pic.twitter.com/oBHD5oQubB

— Man Games Lost NFL (@ManGamesLostNFL) January 12, 2023

Comparisons to Justin Herbert: Drawing comparisons to Justin Herbert’s 2021 season, it’s essential to recognize that Lawrence has not yet reached the consistent fantasy production that Herbert displayed. Herbert already boasted an average of 22.7 points per game in 2021, showcasing a higher fantasy ceiling compared to Lawrence’s latest performance. But when Herbert failed to deliver last season, he was a major detriment to fantasy rosters. Lawrence has proven less but is already expected to take the leap based on his inflated price tag.