Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Dalton Schultz, George Kittle, Odell Beckham Jr.

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)

The last time we saw Beckham Jr., he evoked thoughts of yesteryear when Beckham Jr. took the league by storm. While Beckham Jr. was on his way to a possibly stout Super Bowl before injury struck again, we’re likely never seeing prime Beckham Jr. again. During his final seven regular season games with the Rams, Beckham Jr. saw a 15.1% target share, 20% target per route run rate, and produced 1.25 yards per route run. His five receiving touchdowns in this span help gloss over the fact that he was a mediocre receiver per efficiency numbers in that stretch. Beckham can continue to be a red zone weapon assuming full health in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, but the days of valuing him as anything more than a WR4/5 are over. I’ll happily draft Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers over Beckham, and they will go behind Beckham in many draft rooms. Beckham will need outlier touchdown production to surpass my expectations for him in 2023.

George Kittle (TE – SF)

George Kittle survived off of touchdowns last year, plain and simple. His 11 receiving touchdowns were a massive outlier that won’t repeat in 2023. Kittle has never managed more than six receiving touchdowns in any season until last year. Kittle is beginning to show a decline in his efficiency metrics. Impending touchdown regression and eroding efficiency is not a recipe for fantasy goodness. Last year Kittle had his lowest yards per route run and targets per route run since his rookie season in 2017. He also recorded the second-lowest PFF receiving grade of his incredible career. There are too many talented tight ends with similar upsides to worry about drafting Kittle in 2023.

Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)

I’ll be staying far away from Dalton Schultz this season. Schultz without Dak Prescott has been a scary scene since 2020. Yes, I know that we have had to deal with the Andy Dalton or Cooper Rush show when Prescott has been out, but still, it’s been incredibly bad for Schultz. In the 15 games without Prescott, Schultz has seen his fantasy points per game dip from 12.1 to 6.7 and his receiving yardage drop from 47.9 to 27.9 per game. With 6.7 fantasy points per game, Schultz would have been the TE26 last year. After career-best marks in PFF receiving grade, YAC per reception, and yards per route run in 2021, Schultz regressed in each area last season. A change of scenery won’t help Schultz rebound in Houston. I’ll take late shots on other tight ends if I’m chasing late-round upside at the position.