It’s a crying shame when you draft a fantasy football team, and it just doesn’t win. This is doubly true when your players, by some miraculous answered prayer from the fantasy gods, stay healthy. Those players are labeled as busts. Injuries are bad luck, but players who faceplant at the well-kempt feet of expectations will leave your league mates cackling at your expense.
The proliferation of wide receiver talent in today’s passer-friendly era has pushed a good many of them to the top of fantasy draft boards. It’s a sound strategy. Many of them are very likely to pay off at their average draft position (ADP). Where WRs aren’t exactly known for their week-to-week consistency, they also tend to reliably score more fantasy points than RBs in the same range.
I would estimate that there are approximately 25 WRs with plausible WR1 (top-12) upside. Nearly all of them have long been identified as early-round marks, and it seamlessly coincides with ADP. The outliers are the sleepers, but the real secret to success is fading the ones who are firmly in the early-round mix who will not reach their potential in the stat sheet. Beware the helium-filled promises that only leave managers holding tattered mylar, crudely tied to frayed, scissor-curled ribbon. These are the four WRs who are sporting top-24 positional ADP in PPR leagues whom I will be bypassing in my drafts.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
WR Busts (2023 Fantasy Football)
Davante Adams (LV)
No, this is not an argument against Davante’s ability to be quarterback-proof. The pride of East Palo Alto, California, is still among the most elite technicians in the game today. This season will be a test. It will be a riddle left to Josh McDaniels to solve using the worst starting QB of Adams’ career.
Whereas the Fresno State alum is likely to stay fantasy-relevant, his ADP at WR7 is too rich for my blood. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t in the climate-controlled Shanahan snow globe anymore. Adams was WR4 in PPG last season with Derek Carr but was still more than two points per game shy of his 2021 pace in Green Bay and six behind his gargantuan 2020 campaign. Jimmy G is a roadblock to a WR’s ceiling, so I’ll let this big fish swim past me in the second round.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
The Seattle Seahawks had a very nice season in 2022. Geno Smith was a revelation. He tossed 30 touchdown passes, and his two stud WRs enjoyed catching passes from the most accurate QB in the NFL by completion rate. Athletic marvel DK Metcalf took a step forward last year as a route technician and finished the season as the WR16 overall. What’s the problem? On a points-per-game basis, DK was only WR26 and is going as WR15 this offseason. He was overshadowed in the stat sheet by a route-running savant, the ageless Tyler Lockett. 2023 only promises more scratching and clawing for targets with the arrival of another route-running savant, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
I still hold Metcalf in very high regard in certain formats, but his ADP in redraft leagues is just silly. Lockett had the best season of his career as he reached 30 years old. JSN might be better than both of them, still. His debut after wrist surgery is looming large in what should be a strong offensive unit. DK will have some huge games this season, but I predict the better value will come from his teammates in fantasy matters.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
In a statement that instantly made me feel like a worthless blob of a human, Deebo Samuel told the media that he was “out of shape” last season and wasn’t going to “let that happen again.” Excuse me? Even though he definitely did not live up to the lofty expectations stemming from a truly incredible 2021 campaign, Deebo still looked the part to me. The South Carolina alum is the ultimate offensive football player. Unfortunately, he is undeserving of his WR17 ADP.
There is real concern about serious Brock Purdy regression this season. Even with that lingering as a possibility, I will give Purdy his flowers for unlocking Brandon Aiyuk as the team’s real WR1. The low average depth of target (aDOT) game that helped Deebo flourish largely depended on Jimmy Garoppolo’s nearsighted and myopic play style from the pocket. It wasn’t until Purdy was thrust into action that the downfield weaponry could shake the cobwebs and dust from their wings. Samuel is awesome, but the real prize at cost is Aiyuk. Don’t chase what would only be Deebo’s second career season as a top-24 WR.
Christian Watson (GB)
It pains me to fly so vehemently into the turbulence of Watson’s strong preseason. The hype is at an all-time high right now. Jordan Love has also enjoyed a strong summer, seemingly comforting all of the anxiety that comes with the post-Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay. The nerds love Watson. His analytics, buoyed by an orgasmic four-game stretch during his rookie season, are ringing all the bells. His athletic profile has analysts biting their lips to keep the saliva from dribbling down their neck beards. Despite all of these promising signs of a breakout, I am very skeptical.
The talented North Dakota State alum has not yet climbed into my trust tree. I already conceded his immense prospects in a best ball format. As far as managed leagues go, he’s not the droid I’m looking for. The main issue stems from my concerns about the Packers’ level of trust with Love commanding the offense in Rodgers’ formidable shadow. Will Love have full reign over signals at the line of scrimmage? Can he make the correct reads and deliver accurate passes on time? Where will he prefer to focus his attention?
The latter question is the most pressing. Watson’s technical skill is still under construction. I worry that Love will prefer to find rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave in the middle of the field working in mismatches. Romeo Doubs’ mere presence on the field severely impacted Watson’s production last season. For an exciting, home run-hitting talent, Watson also has “third option on the team” in his range of outcomes. It would be catastrophic to the fantasy manager to spend a fourth or fifth round pick (WR23) on anything less than an alpha dog who can take over more than four games in six months.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- DBro’s Pace & Play Calling Changes & Impact
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1 | WR1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
- 7 Safest Players to Draft | 5 Riskiest Players to Draft
- 5 High-Floor PPR Draft Targets
- 4 Late-Round Fantasy Football Defenses to Draft
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