What are you afraid of? I was afraid of the dark for a really long time. The unknown, invisible peril could be anywhere. The thought of failing at anything, even the slightest misstep, would ball me up into an anxious mess until a couple of years ago. I fear all the darkest things my imagination can conjure. What’s the worst that could happen? Dread is to hope, as hate is to love. It’s a fine line. Predicting the future is not my lot in life. Anyone can read a detailed horoscope and feel like it’s speaking directly to them.

“Oh, your moon is in Sagittarius, too? That means your emotional self is restless, self-questioning, optimistic, and independent.” I felt that. It spoke to me and made me feel a bit special.

“Oh, you think Amon-Ra St. Brown was unlucky last season and will be even more successful in 2023?” Yes, I do. See? Not much difference between astrology and fantasy advice. Some are sage, while the rest are unactionable drivel. Like the creative writers behind the Co-Star app, I’m not even the least bit afraid to be wrong about the future. I only wish to entertain and speak from my viewpoint in a way that resonates.

I mutter to myself every day a mantra gleaned from the great Alton Brown from “Good Eats” on the Food Network: Never be daunted.

Repetition turns a riverbed into a canyon, a phrase into a mantra. Repeatedly giving something away leaves a void, whereas taking creates a mountain. Speaking of mantras, Gandhi’s mantra “Rama, Rama, Rama” transformed him from a notorious coward into a fearless icon of truth and independence.

His purpose was to champion truth.

That’s a heavily weighted word: Purpose.

Am I where I belong?

Are my actions meaningful?

Do I find fulfillment in my place in life?

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Purpose was the holy grail for Richie Jerimovich from the smash hit television program “The Bear.” He spent all of Season 1 and the better part of Season 2 spinning his wheels, coping with his failures. He lashed out and pointed blame for his unhappiness outward on the only loved ones he had left. Season 2: Episode 7, named “Forks,” is where Richie finds his purpose. I won’t spoil it, but Forks is the best episode of TV I have ever seen. Even thinking about it has my eyes welling up, and a lump forms in my throat. It’s a beautiful show.

The Bear can be described as raw and chaotic but also humble and deeply moving. The family-run kitchens in the show each had an important mantra prominently expressed throughout. They drove it home like an ice pick to the soul. Let it Rip. Every Second Counts. Though left in a blurry puddle of happy tears, those mantras helped me let my guard down and show love in a healthier way. Not just for my family and close friends but also inward. How powerful is that? A damn TV show broke down my walls and gave me the courage to find my own purpose and love my damned self. Mantra, courage, purpose, love. It sounds like something hanging in a rustic frame in your aunt’s sitting room. You just can’t buy this one at Target.

The self-loathing hit a peak before the pandemic. Rudderless and bursting with pent-up angst, I only found what I thought was joy in doing things for others. It didn’t help. Self-neglect is destructive and causes overcorrection. Overcorrection capsizes the boat, and the captain goes down with it. It’s a vicious cycle, but visualizing metaphors is one of many things therapy helps one process internally. Mantra is a fancy word for “distraction.”

I have always loved football. My passion for the game was never reciprocated until I found the fantasy football community. Has it consumed my life and distracted me beyond what is reasonable for a married man with a child and a full-time career? Eek, yeah, it has. The universe knows I love football. Writing about football entrances me like a TOOL concert. Instead of spiraling out in the Fibonacci Sequence of Lateralus, I write about a fake game that encompasses the happenings of a real one. So what if I don’t accurately predict the future? Try again.

Before I was a moderately well-known analyst and writer, I was known for my hot sauce.

It was January 2020, and I was still recovering from a particularly nasty “non-influenza viral infection.” I had befriended the owner of a popular local taco joint, the type with Americanized adaptations and a freaking drive-thru. Gabe’s parents owned the sit-down place by my house, and both restaurants were known for their salsa roja. I was obsessed with this sauce (truthfully, I still am). Ever the creative mess-maker in the kitchen, I began my re-creation journey at 9:00 p.m. on a Tuesday.

Batch one: too much vinegar. It’s not really a salsa, but instead a ridiculously flavorful hot sauce. Why do I have a gallon of this stuff? Four quart Mason jars posted on Instagram with the note “Free hot sauce.” It’s a good thing I wrote everything down because my Venmo suddenly has $300 in it, and I need to make two more batches before I hit the hay.

Fast forward to summer 2020, and the world is shut down, but I’m invited to Scott Fish Bowl 10 (SFBX) because Mr. Fish himself is obsessed with my sauce.

Becoming the King of Spice was a complete accident. Staying true to the name, this is the fourth installment of 32 Spicy Takes and the third for FantasyPros.

The mission: to accurately predict improbable (but plausible) fantasy football storylines before the new season kicks off. So what if I’m wrong? I’ll make up for it with an epic victory lap for when I’m right. Everyone deserves inner peace. We all have a purpose, whether or not we have found it yet. I guess mine is to be unequivocally me. Spicy and sassy. Rama, Rama, Rama…

32 Spicy Predictions

San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk is a Top-12 WR in PPR; Brock Purdy commits more turnovers than touchdowns scored.

The most complete WR on the juggernaut 49ers is not the WR3 overall from 2021. It is not the freak “wide back” from South Carolina who can turn any touch into paydirt. Brandon Aiyuk was the WR8 last season in the latter two-thirds of the season. Most of that encompassed the torch passing from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy before injury thrust Simba Purdy onto the throne. The Arizona State alum is an absolute technician and the one true X-receiver on the 49ers. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception loves Aiyuk due to his thankless work getting open in a scheme that couldn’t get the ball to the boundary too well until Purdy took over.

Brandon Aiyuk was the WR8 from Week 6 on last year

And was the 2nd best WR in the NFL vs man coverage behind only Justin Jefferson

In addition to being hyped up throughout the entire offseason by his teammates

He still goes as the WR29 in Drafts

— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) August 29, 2023

As for Purdy, there’s a lot to be said about how lucky he got down the stretch and in the playoffs last season. He was absolutely abysmal versus Seattle and Dallas, then was on the same track against Philly before suffering the elbow injury. The tape never lies, and Purdy’s perfect Shanahan snow globe showed a lot of cracks that were glossed over by “his” win-loss record. The team is still putting all their chips in the middle on an extremely limited player with moxie.

Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all rookies in fantasy points and scores more fantasy points per game than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Rookie WRs often get handled with kid gloves in fantasy football. Wary of the dreaded busts, we let them go by oftentimes to a spot much later in drafts than appropriate. Don’t let JSN go to another manager. To me, he’s in the same vein as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase when it comes to prospect evaluations. Lockett and Metcalf are great, but they’re not Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. The latter two were second and third fiddle to Smith-Njigba at Ohio State in 2021. A minor wrist fracture only meant a short window where he slipped a round or two later in drafts. If you reach for one rookie above ADP this year, I’d pick JSN (even over Bijan Robinson) at cost.

Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua slots right in as an every-game starter and becomes the best value WR relative to ADP.

The Rams are entering their second season of post-championship swooning. The depth is non-existent after going all in that fateful season, but the starters are back healthy and quite a bit better than they are currently given credit for. BYU rookie WR Puka Nacua fills a desperate need area for the Rams. At a sturdy 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, Nacua has an uncanny resemblance to former Rams WR Robert Woods. He even wears the same No. 17. He will see a lot of snaps right away because of his grit and intangibles. He’s also crafty running routes and rugged after the catch. At an ADP around WR90, he could easily end up 50 spots higher.

Arizona Cardinals

Trey McBride leads the Cardinals in receiving and finishes as a top-12 TE.

The Cardinals have taken the “worst-run” franchise baton cleanly in stride from the Snyder-era Commanders. With a QB room that consists of Clayton Tune and Joshua Dobbs, along with rumors that Kyler Murray will remain inactive this season, the team is going full monty on their no-pants Panzer “rebuild.” Jonathan Gannon knows as much about offense as my grandma, so the offense is under the watchful eye of a Stefansky droid from Cleveland. 12-personnel will be the norm. Another certainty is low-aDOT quick reads to the middle of the field. Trey McBride is a really good player who looked the part late last season. This isn’t the spiciest pick in the world, but it’s already hot enough in the desert these days.

Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 14 and is WR3 overall.

I don’t have the exact number off hand, but it seemed like the Sun God was tripped up at the 1-yard line a thousand times last season. Naturally, it also seemed like Jamaal Williams squirted through on the very next play for a touchdown. St. Brown is Jared Goff‘s number one guy. This is especially true in the red zone, where the USC star makes use of his ridiculous short-area quickness and intelligence to create space in a sardine can. Besides Jefferson and Chase, I can’t think of a safer bet to pay off in the first round of a fantasy draft than St. Brown.

Minnesota Vikings

Ty Chandler leads the team in rushing after taking over for Alexander Mattison mid-season.

Is it Mid-ison or Meh-ttison? Either way, a fine RB is not going to win any fantasy championships. Mattison is good but not great at anything in particular. Second-year player Ty Chandler is primed to be the second man in, which will immediately put the veteran on notice if he isn’t living up to the starting hype. This isn’t Mattison barely seeing the field because Dalvin Cook is a MFing boss back there. Chandler is bigger, faster, and presses his blocks better than Mattison in the gap-running scheme that Coach O’Connell has deployed in greater quantity than his predecessor. This isn’t an injury prediction. It’s purely a performance bet.

Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs outscore Christian Watson in PPR; Packers finish with a losing record.

All I’ve heard this offseason is how dominant Christian Watson is going to be this season. Based on what? Four games last year where he scored seven touchdowns before vanishing again? I love watching Watson run around out there, but he’s so inconsistent on tape that I truly worry that the drop-off in QB performance might render him useless in managed leagues. Jordan Love hasn’t proven himself to be any more than a game manager with questionable decision-making and inconsistent footwork and accuracy. Doubs’ presence in the lineup cratered any production Watson might have enjoyed last season. Reed is a technician who will start in the slot for Green Bay. Watson is likely to be similar to George Pickens in that his penchant for highlight reel plays will not translate in the stat column at day’s end.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields becomes the first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history and garners MVP votes.

I’m higher than a kite…on Justin Fields this season. Aside from racist trolls calling him an RB, too many people simply forgot how good of a passer he is. I scouted Fields as a dual threat, but his predominant weapon at Ohio State was his right arm pushing the ball down the field. Fields has finished two seasons in the league. Season one saw him sit on the bench for Andy Dalton and then be thrown into a fully sabotaged Matt Nagy abomination when finally given the chance to start. Last season was better (he was QB5 in PPG), but Fields accomplished this with zero legitimate receiving talent and a sieve along the offensive line. Season three will be a fireworks show. DJ Moore‘s arrival is fantastic in every way. The line is also much improved. I can’t wait for Fields to silence the haters like Jalen Hurts did last year.

Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith leads the team in receiving over AJ Brown; both surpass 1,500 yards.

They call him the Slim Reaper. The concerned BMI murmurs are muffled under a pillow by now, but Smith is still getting better. I believe this Eagles passing attack will take another step forward in 2023. Jalen Hurts is a monster and likely won’t be sitting out as many fourth-quarter blowout wins this year. Smith and Brown are as good of a one-two punch as exists in the league. We know how good AJB is, but we’re only scratching the surface of Smitty’s potential. Watch him go out and remind everyone why he had the most productive season by a college WR ever.

Washington Commanders

Sam Howell is a Top-15 fantasy QB; Jahan Dotson and Antonio Gibson are both top-20 at their positions.

I could have written this blurb about Howell two years ago. His sophomore season at North Carolina was prodigious and, had he been eligible, would have resulted in him going in the first round that year. His junior season showed some growth areas in his game, but the NFL messed up, letting him slip into the fifth round in a putrid crop of QBs. He put up 20 fantasy points in his only start as a rookie, leading Ron Rivera to go, “Aww shucks, should’ve started him earlier.” Duh. Howell is a certified baller with weaponry, and Eric Bieniemy calling plays.

Some of that weaponry is old hat, while others are still glossy and new. Antonio Gibson is a big, fast RB with receiving chops from his days at Memphis. For some combination of hair-brained reasons, Gibson has not been utilized to his strengths. I expect that to change with Bieniemy, who now has a jacked version of Jerick McKinnon to fill that role. Terry McLaurin‘s toe injury isn’t overly serious, but I have been singing Jahan Dotson’s praises all off-season. His combination of athleticism and technical ability is rare for a player who is going in the middle rounds in fantasy.

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard is the RB1 overall; sets a new career high in targets, receptions, and all-purpose yards.

Turn up the heat! It was me who wrote an article titled “Tony Pollard: Superstar” back in 2020. Even when Pollard was the RB8 last season, he was underutilized by Kellen Moore to the point of malpractice. A former receiver in college should never have a career-high of 55 targets in four seasons. Moore is in Los Angeles, and Ezekiel Elliott is in New England. There is no earthly reason why Pollard shouldn’t continue his jaunt through NFL defenses in good health this season. If I was Mike McCarthy, I would be treating Pollard like Christian McCaffrey (if CMC was better at breaking tackles).

New York Giants

Darren Waller is targeted 120 times and finishes as TE3 overall; Daniel Jones is QB6 in PPG.

The Giants really only have one WR who can be taken seriously when split out wide. That is Isaiah Hodgins. Compared to Hodgins, Darren Waller is an absolute matchup nightmare at any spot in the formation. I don’t foresee the Giants doing much in the vertical passing game, but Waller figures to gobble up a lot of underneath targets and control the middle of the field. His athleticism after the catch, along with his size in the red zone, will be a breath of fresh air for Daniel Jones.

Jones finally has some receivers this season. Last season, Danny Dimes stuck to the Brian Daboll system and ended up as QB8 without so much as one good receiver on the roster. His underrated mobility is still there, along with a new crop of receivers who can get open and gain yards after the catch. Year two under Daboll will ramp up Jones’ aggressiveness in the system and latitude at the line of scrimmage.

New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr sets a new career high with 34 touchdown passes; Saints win the NFC South.

I’m not the biggest Derek Carr fan. There are more than a few jokes about his eyeliner smearing on my socials. Do I necessarily think he’s a huge upgrade over his backup Jameis Winston? No. He is a massive upgrade over last year’s starter Andy Dalton. Add in a healthy Michael Thomas and a rising star in Chris Olave, and it’s more exciting than free beignets at Cafe Du Monde. New Orleans is primed to make some noise this season, especially in the league’s Meg Griffin of divisions.

Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts and Drake London combine for 2,500 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns; Bijan Robinson is NOT a top-10 RB.

I ran into Arthur Smith in Las Vegas during Shrine Bowl week. Like the insufferable turd, I am, I looked him square in the face and said, “Hi, Arthur.” Not coach, not Mr. Smith. Arthur. I hope he could see the pain in my eyes as a Kyle Pitts fantasy fanboy. I pray he felt that sadness. It wasn’t his fault last year. My Oregon Ducks hero alum, Marcus Mariota, was the culprit. If Desmond Ridder is five percent better than Mariota was last year, steak is back on the menu for The Unicorn.

Drake London is also tall but possesses a completely different receiving skill set from Pitts. Where he lacks the top-end speed, he makes up for in short-area quickness and is ridiculously difficult to corral after the catch. Both are impossible to guard in jump ball situations. For all the run-heavy, rambling wreck jokes we make about Arthur, he knows what he has on the outside.

Bijan Robinson is the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. That’s not hyperbole. Where I diverge from nearly everyone is on the matter of Bijan’s fit with the Falcons. Atlanta loves to run the ball (even if down by three touchdowns). They also have Cordarrelle Patterson and 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier on the roster. Where I do expect good efficiency numbers from the Golden Goose rookie RB, I certainly fear a maddening letdown in the usage department. The Falcons run a slowwww offense. Fewer plays, fewer looks for Bijan. Where most saw a perfect landing spot, I saw an unlimited prospect with a limited ceiling.

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young accounts for 30 touchdowns and wins Offensive Rookie of the Year; Panthers clinch Wild Card berth with top-10 defense.

Does anyone actually watch college football anymore?! So many fantasy managers are drafting scared when it comes to Heisman winner Bryce Young. Yeah, the same small fry who set the SEC absolutely ablaze for two seasons. He left no survivors. He even ripped the vaunted Georgia defense to shreds on multiple occasions. Young is a prodigy, a genius QB. If there was one trait that was shared by the vast majority of QBs in Canton, it would be intelligent decision-making. The Panthers made the right choice to trade up with the Bears to get Young. Now they have a future on offense to go with their fast, opportunistic defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs are the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL and do not produce ANY top-20 fantasy performers at their respective positions.

Tom Brady is getting chummy with his new digs in Las Vegas, and I love that journey for him. The GOAT led the second-lowest scoring offense in the NFC last season. Their running game was terrible, and lost Leonard Fournette. The receiving corps with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is a strength, but who is going to throw them the ball? Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask? Close your eyes, hold your nose, and pick one. Some are predicting a second-year leap from Rachaad White, but he was awful as a rusher last season. This team is going nowhere fast in their post-championship swoon.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert passes for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns; Austin Ekeler is targeted fewer than 80 times and does not reach 10 touchdowns.

The Chargers have always been the franchise with the good, bad, and ugly. Good: Justin Herbert finally has an offensive coordinator who loves to push the tempo and attack the defense vertically. Bad: That same OC hates passing to RBs. Ugly: Our chosen RB1 goes from the most RB pass-heavy OC to the least. I certainly hope I’m wrong, and it turns out that Kellen Moore only hated to throw to his most dynamic playmaker, Tony Pollard, for the last four years. Pollard, a former WR at Memphis, was an afterthought in the Dallas passing game most of the time. This was in spite of his making gigantic splash plays every time they threw him the ball. Ekeler is a very young 28-year-old and has been a touchdown machine for the last two seasons. With such an explosive Herbert passing attack on its way this season, I pray Ekeler isn’t the one who is left behind.

Kansas City Chiefs

Skyy Moore leads all Chiefs WRs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns; Travis Kelce sets a new career high with 14 touchdowns.

Yeah, that Patrick Mahomes cat is really freaking good at football. So good that he got better without Tyreek Hill last season. Besides the obvious connection with Travis Kelce, the receiving corps was a makeshift crew. JuJu Smith-Schuster is in New England now, and Mecole Hardman is in New York. The key players to consider in 2023 are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and whatever they can scrape from Kadarius Toney, along with youngsters Rashee Rice and comeback player of the year candidate Justyn Ross. Who am I missing? Oh yeah, my guy. Skyy Moore is entering his second season out of Western Michigan and wears an unsightly No. 24 jersey out wide. Skyy is the best route runner among all the WRs and is also a stud after the catch. He will likely fill the JuJu role well since he’s better at every facet of the game. I looooove Skyy to step up.

Kelce was used so much as a decoy last season in the red zone that it was funny to see him still set a career-high with 12 touchdowns. The added talent in the WR department won’t allow defenses to double-team Kelce as much, leaving him free to roam and find mismatches. Rest assured, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will find a way to make it happen. This scary offense is going to be even better this season.

Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams leads the AFC in all-purpose yards with more than 1,800; Russell Wilson receives at least one MVP vote.

By all accounts, there is nothing stopping Javonte Williams from a return to play in Week 1. The North Carolina standout was one of the toughest RBs in the league to bring down before his ACL injury last season. His return to form might take a few weeks, but I very highly doubt Sean Payton is going to baby his bell cow back. The reports are already that Payton envisions Williams as his new Alvin Kamara. A bigger, tougher Kamara who is also a pretty good receiver. Wheels up on Javonte.

Russell Wilson was completely awful last season… until Nathaniel Hackett was fired. I’m sensing a correlation here. Maybe the QB who put together nine consecutive QB1 seasons was a bit hindered by his head coach. Hmm… The Broncos have real talent on both sides of the ball and now have a championship-level coach. Mr. Unlimited was too much cringe for anyone to handle. We need to get back to “On Wisconsin, Go Badgers” lunchpail Russ. He’s good.

Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams is not a top-10 WR; Jimmy Garoppolo benched for Aidan O’Connell by Week 8. Raiders earn the number one pick in 2024.

I wonder if Jimmy Garoppolo even remembers what it’s like not to play QB in a climate-controlled snow globe. The Shanahan system is very specific and props up even the most mediocre talent to produce solid stats. The Josh McDaniel offense is pretty good too, but he also struggled to put the ball in the end zone with one-time MVP candidate Derek Carr. Jimmy G sure is handsome, but his game is not. Is Davante Adams QB-proof? Probably, but we’re actually going to find out this season. I love Adams (shoutout NorCal), but WR is so stacked at the top that it will be tough for him to hang around in fantasy this season.

Aidan O’Connell is a Rod Farva doppelganger and a very run-of-the-mills Big-10 QB. He’s not likely to materialize into any type of starter-level player. Still, I can certainly envision a scenario where Vegas kicks the tires on their late-round pick if Garoppolo falls upon hard times. In that scenario, it will be a different team from the desert southwest who will slide in for the services of Caleb Williams.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson wins NFL MVP for the second time and is QB1 overall in fantasy, leading the league in scoring offense; Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers each surpass 1,000 yards receiving.

Barring injury, Lamar Jackson is the best QB in fantasy football. Period. This was the case with Greg Roman running the damn Wing-T out there and telegraphing every play. Not only is pass-heavy Todd Monken in charge of the offense, but Lamar also has actual receiving weapons outside of Mark Andrews (for the first time ever). Odell Beckham Jr. is set to revive some of his illustrious early career, but the real treat is with the young guns on the outside.

Rashod Bateman was a first-round pick two years ago and has looked fantastic, aside from some really crummy injury luck. He is joined by this year’s top pick, Zay Flowers from Boston College. Zay is ten pounds of dynamite in a five-pound bag. I met with him during Shrine Bowl week this winter and was struck by just how strong he looks for a smaller WR. He has since seized a ton of hype through his preseason performance and will be extremely fun to watch on Sundays. This offense is going to be utterly unstoppable.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson restores his reputation as a downfield receiver with a career-high aDOT; Kenny Pickett accounts for a surprising 32 touchdowns.

My excitement for the Steelers offense is a tad more muted than Matt Harmon from Reception Perception and Yahoo Sports fame, but I can see it. Diontae Johnson entered the league as a vertical receiver and was stunted into a technician role because of Ben Roethlisberger’s diminishing arm strength. We saw a bit more verticality with rookie Kenny Pickett last season, but Diontae incredibly did not score a single touchdown. That changes this season.

Not only do I foresee Pickett stepping up to be more comfortable at this level, I think he will start putting together some bigger games. Diontae is the only WR on the team who can actually get open at will, ensuring his target share will stay humongous. The Kyle Pitts law of regression states that he will score at least five touchdowns this season. I have Pickett projected for 26 passing scores and six more on the ground. It will be yet another winning season for Mike Tomlin.

Cleveland Browns

Elijah Moore leads all Browns skill players in PPR scoring; Deshaun Watson finishes as a top-10 QB.

I despise bad coaches who also let their egos get in the way. Elijah Moore was an unstoppable force as a rookie in 2021. His reward in 2022? Dog house. Trade request: denied. QB performance: amateur comedy hour. His 2023 was looking pretty spiffy once Aaron Rodgers stated his “wish” to play for the Jets. Turns out, wearing No. 8 was part of the deal, and Cleveland shipped a second-round pick to the Meadowlands to acquire the guy who once celebrated a touchdown by pretending to pee on a fire hydrant like a dog.

Was anyone else surprised that the most distracted QB of all time, who hadn’t played football in two years, looked bad last season? Amari Cooper looked great. So did David Njoku and Nick Chubb. There’s an inappropriate rusty Tin Man oil joke here somewhere, but I’ll leave it alone. Deshaun Watson is much better than he showed last season. He now has a WR who can also line up in the backfield and do it all. Combine that with a defense that will likely be bad again this season, and Watson will be a fantasy force this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins is the leading receiver for the Bengals; he and Ja’Marr Chase combine for more than 3,000 receiving yards.

The best WR duo in the league might be Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It also might be AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Either way, you’re right. Higgins is the one WR who will have an obvious WR1 upside and isn’t getting any love in fantasy drafts. Both Bengals WRs had exactly five games last season with more than 18 points in PPR, but suddenly Chase is the only one of the two who is going in the top-5 in drafts. Higgins is a more reliable weapon in the red zone and in contested catch situations. Don’t dismiss the possibility that Higgins could out-produce his teammate, especially relative to ADP.

Buffalo Bills

James Cook scores double-digit touchdowns and reaches RB2 status with 1,300 scrimmage yards.

This one is Carolina Reaper nuclear spicy. James Cook is too small. He’s never had more than 12 touches in any game, college or professional. He’s not like his brother, Dalvin. The Bills signed Damien Harris to steal all the rushing touchdowns. I thumb my nose at all of those detractors. The Buffalo Bills are not going anywhere. They are an elite offense with a ton of passing volume. James Cook will be on the field between the 20s, in the two-minute offense, and when the team is behind on the scoreboard. He is a magnificent receiver and a weapon in space. The prediction seems ludicrous when spelled out. What if I said he gets 110 carries for 600 yards? Then add in 74 receptions for 675 yards, and poof. Throw in a touchdown every other game on a team that will average four, and we’re really talking. Devin Singletary could never…

New York Jets

Garrett Wilson leads the AFC in targets with 170; the Jets go deep in the playoffs with the league’s top defense.

The stars of HBO’s Hard Knocks will not sneak up on anyone this season. Who will Aaron Rodgers throw to besides Garrett Wilson? I don’t think anyone else has ever gotten open before. 10 targets per game is lofty, but Wilson is the only real threat on the outside for the future Hall of Fame QB.

The Jets will be a good running team, too. Their real strength is with Robert Saleh’s defense. The front four goes nine deep with scary goons who can really get after it. The linebackers are fast and disciplined. DJ Reed Jr. is awesome at corner and is still in Sauce Gardner‘s shadow. I believe in this team, even if they look more like the 2015 Broncos than the 2010 Packers.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa leads the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL; Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both top-5 WRs.

This offense is a freaking rocket. Speed everywhere. The passing game is the centrifuge, funneling the ball to their two thrusters at WR. It was unstoppable last season. Only multiple concussions stopped Tua Tagovailoa from leading Miami to an impressive playoff run in Mike McDaniel’s first season as a head coach. McDaniel was the actual brains behind the 49ers “Shanahan” system. Hill and Waddle were WR2 and WR8, respectively in PPR last season, despite spending a good portion of the year catching passes from Skylar Thompson. I want to see 17 games of fireworks (fingers crossed).

New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott both score 10 or more touchdowns; Mac Jones leads the NFL in completion percentage.

Throw the 2022 Patriots offense in the trash. Joe Judge and Matt Patricia shockingly didn’t do well as co-parents and everything went to hell in a hand basket. Mac Jones regressed sharply and was momentarily benched for a rookie who was recently cut and cleared waivers. Rhamondre Stevenson started as a tandem back with Damien Harris, but was ushered into a role that saw him catch 69 check-downs (nice). It was dysfunctional and chaotic last year, but from rock bottom, one can only rise.

Jones is still a really smart player. When he was under Josh McDaniels’ tutelage, he looked really sharp within the confines of a well-coifed game plan. Bill O’Brien will have him better prepared, along with a better stable of receiving weapons. Ezekiel Elliott left Dallas with bald tires and a huge bag of money. He still found the end zone 12 times in 15 games last season, lest you forget. New England has two bruising RBs who are each capable pass catchers and pass protectors. Running them in an alternate series and riding the hot hand will be very effective and should give Bill Belichick a chance to return his team to the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence finishes second to Herbert in passing yards; Christian Kirk is the most productive receiver, narrowly over Calvin Ridley in a very balanced attack.

This team is scary. Doug Pederson was fantastic last season. He turned a rudderless team under Urban Meyer into a young, athletic squad that won a playoff game. The band is back together for 2023, and they added a couple of great pieces to the orchestra. Calvin Ridley is two years removed from an injury and gambling suspension but has looked incendiary in training camp.

Rookie RB Tank Bigsby from Auburn is a great thunder to Travis Etienne‘s lightning. Evan Engram is a top-notch option at TE, too. All of that is fine and dandy, but too many people forgot about Christian Kirk. Kirk was stellar for the Jags last year and finished as WR11. He made it abundantly clear how misused he was in Arizona and will rip the seam from the slot again this season. Jacksonville should run away with the AFC South behind their franchise QB.

Tennessee Titans

Treylon Burks scores more fantasy points than DeAndre Hopkins; Derrick Henry is a top-5 RB again with 1,800 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns.

It sure seems like the fantasy community has a lot of residual hate for the Titans left over from when Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator. I guess that will happen when you trade away your best receiver for a draft pick that turns into a less-polished version of the guy you sent away. This season will be a breakout for Treylon Burks. He would have been the only guy to worry about until they signed Deandre Hopkins. D-Hop was a top-10 WR last season when healthy, and his style of play transcends his 30 years of age. He will draw coverage away from the explosive Razorback, Burks.

For about three years, the dynasty fantasy community has tried to predict Derrick Henry’s demise. Age cliff this, efficiency decline that. They seem to be glossing over the fact that no other RB has ever been Derrick Henry. There is still fervent debate about whether he is even human. I think he’s an alien. An alien who is awesome at football. A little tidbit to support my argument is that King Henry led all RBs in yards per reception last season. He also saw a career-high in targets and receptions, leading to the second season of his career with more than 300 points in PPR formats (RB4). I think he ticks down a bit from his 1,900 scrimmage yards in 2022 but maintains his crown before turning 30.

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson is a top-10 QB in fantasy with more than 950 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns to go with 20 touchdowns through the air.

There seems to be a prevailing trend each year with fantasy QBs. The Konami Code. A QB doesn’t even pass for 4,000 yards and still breaks fantasy with his rushing production. In 2019, it was Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign. In 2020, Kyler Murray. 2021 saw Jalen Hurts do it before he had AJ Brown. Last season, Justin Fields put on a cape and did it all by himself. This year’s code sequence will be with Colts rookie Anthony Richardson. There has never been a more athletic QB.

The franchise is playing footsy with star RB Jonathan Taylor and only kept three WRs after roster cuts. Richardson is the offense. He is also under Shane Steichen’s magnificent wing. Steichen helped Justin Herbert and Hurts reach top-tier performance. He is a phenomenal coach who fits his scheme to the talent instead of vice versa. Richardson is a lot better in the passing department than you might have heard, so buckle up and enjoy the show.

Houston Texans

Dameon Pierce leads all RBs in touches; CJ Stroud paces all rookie QBs in QBR.

The Florida Gators have produced some really fun players. Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney were a spectacle a few years back. Malik Davis stole carries away from Angry Runs award winner Dameon Pierce. Pierce hit the league like the ton of bricks he is before getting dinged up and stagnating down the stretch. The Texans had already pulled the plug anyway, vying for one of the top QBs in the upcoming draft. That pick was CJ Stroud from Ohio State. Stroud is a fundamentally sound archer of a passer. He has the makeup to elevate the talent around him, which is exactly what Houston has been missing since Deshaun Watson’s career was sidetracked.

There is hope again along the Gulf Coast of Texas. Pierce will be as close to a bellcow as can be found in the league and will allow Stroud to cycle through his reads in the Bobby Slowik offense. Slowik is another Shanahan disciple who will run wide zone concepts with waggles and bootlegs to get athletes in space. The decision-making for Stroud will be spelled out in plain terms, leaving little room for improvisation and off-script rookie mistakes. Houston is not going to tank this year. Arizona has their first-rounder in 2024, so the Texans might actually make some noise and cause some headaches in the AFC.

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