Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 3 (2023)

Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.

In recent years, targets and target share have become an important part of how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.

Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.

Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from Week 2 to see if we can uncover any hidden gems.

Stats via FTNFantasy.com

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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 3

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert led the way in Week 2 with 441 air yards and an aDOT well over 10 yards. It was the perfect storm for Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game. They were facing the Tennessee Titans, who are a notorious pass-funnel defensive unit. And Herbert was without his favorite safety valve in Austin Ekeler. Since the beginning of 2022, Ekeler has earned 133 targets with a combined aDOT of -85 yards. If Ekeler is out or limited this Sunday, Herbert will likely continue to look downfield. The Vikings’ defense has held Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts under 200 passing yards. But I would not shy away from Herbert as a mid-range QB1 in this matchup. He is still armed with two high-end wide receivers, and a more concentrated approach down the field should be enough for him to put up solid fantasy numbers.

Deshaun Watson is an interesting case as it relates to air yards. On one hand, he ranks fourth in the NFL in air yards and leads the league in aDOT through two weeks. On the other hand, he has been pretty terrible throwing the football. Watson ranks in the bottom five among all signal callers in both EPA (expected points added) and CPOE (completion percentage over expected). The only other quarterback who is on both lists is Zach Wilson. However, there could be reason for optimism, at least in the short term. Watson faces Tennessee in Week 3. Cleveland may have to rely on Watson more than usual in this matchup. The Browns are also without their top rusher after the gruesome injury Nick Chubb suffered on Monday night. Watson’s rushing production raises his floor in a matchup that could provide fantasy managers with a higher ceiling than usual.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Kendrick Bourne tops this week’s air yards list at the wide receiver position. And though it did not lead to much in the way of fantasy points in Week 2, Bourne’s usage is certainly worth monitoring. He is now second in the NFL in air yards behind only Tyreek Hill. And Bourne showed his ceiling with a two-TD effort in Week 1. I do not think we are looking at a true breakout, if for no other reason than I do not believe Bill Belichick wants Mac Jones to throw the ball 48 times per game. But Bourne should continue to have value going forward. Bourne’s 20 targets are tied for sixth among wide receivers through two weeks. And his 15.65 aDOT leads all wideouts who have seen at least 10 targets thus far.

I wish I knew what to advise for fantasy managers with Garrett Wilson. Wilson had 83 yards receiving and a touchdown in Week 2. But you can make the argument that he could have had about 150 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson missed out on a potential touchdown in the corner of the endzone because Zach Wilson’s arm was hit before he could complete the throw. Zach Wilson then proceeded to stare down Garrett Wilson on a long play late in the game, which ended up in an interception. The Jets’ quarterback and offensive line play are not going to improve anytime soon. As talented as Garrett Wilson is, he is likely to be limited by the pieces around him. He can still make enough plays to be a solid starter, but his ceiling simply isn’t what it was two weeks ago.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Zach Ertz is about as unsexy a fantasy player as you’ll find at the tight end position. But the veteran leads the Arizona Cardinals in targets and receptions through two weeks. He also leads all tight ends in targets and air yards. That distinction does not figure to last long now that Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are healthy. Still, Ertz should continue to be fantasy-relevant with Joshua Dobbs running the show in the desert. Dobbs was brought into the fold very late in training camp. He was unfamiliar with both the playbook and the majority of his Cardinals teammates. Ertz has proven to be a steady target for Dobbs and should continue to be a viable fantasy tight end.

In addition to the exploits of Kendrick Bourne, New England sports two tight ends in the top five of this week’s air yards report. Neither Hunter Henry nor Mike Gesicki were high fantasy picks this offseason. But both have been productive in the early going. Henry enters Week 3 as the overall TE, while Gesicki checks in at TE14. Again, we should expect the Patriots passing game as a whole to take a hit from a volume perspective. That means there will be some down weeks. Having said that, at a position as spotty as tight end, both Patriots are worth holding onto. Henry should be started in favorable matchups, while Gesicki makes for an intriguing stash for those who have the flexibility on their benches.

The Top Five Underperformers

For this section of the air yards report, I will continue to focus on the wide receiver position. We know that running back and tight end targets generally occur close to the line of scrimmage. I will also continue to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume.

I think it is worth noting that after Kadarius Toney dropped multiple passes in the Chiefs’ season-opener, the Chiefs almost exclusively deployed Toney at or behind the line of scrimmage. From a fantasy standpoint, this could be a good thing for the mercurial wideout. Toney is the type of player who can make something out of nothing and excels in space. With the creative ways in which Andy Reid designs plays, particularly in the red zone, Toney could be in line for better weeks ahead. He finished as the overall WR51 last week in PPR. While that is not ideal, it is also not the worst possible outcome. Toney matches up with a weak Bears defense in Week 3 and could be a sneaky play this week.

Seattle rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has made this list in each of his first two weeks in the NFL. The good news is that he has earned 11 targets, which is tied with DK Metcalf for second on the team. However, those 11 targets have resulted in just 47 scoreless yards. So far, there is a clear pecking order in terms of aDOT among the Seahawks’ receivers, and Smith-Njigba (2.27) is firmly behind Metcalf (13.09) and Tyler Lockett (8.5). Though having a low aDOT is not necessarily a death knell, it would be nice to see Smith-Njigba work a bit more downfield. I would not drop the talented rookie, but I am also in no rush to start him anytime soon.