Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 1 (2023)

Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in very different ways. Depending on their air yards, one may have more future value than the other.

In recent years, targets and target share have become important tools that we use to value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.

Air yards are important because they often indicate a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and down the field could be in store for more fantasy production.

Let us look at some of the top air yards performances from Week 1 to see if we can uncover hidden gems.

Stats via FTNFantasy.com

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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

The performance on Sunday from Tua Tagovailoa was impressive on multiple fronts. Not only did Miami’s signal-caller lead all quarterbacks in passing yards and air yards by a significant margin, but he did so within the flow of the offense. This was a game in which neither team ever led by more than seven points. So the fact that he threw the ball 45 times and had an aDOT (average depth of target) 11 yards down the field is very encouraging. We know the questions that surround Tagovailoa’s health. But with two elite wide receivers who can challenge defenses down the field, Tagovailoa looks like he can be a top-10 fantasy quarterback for as long as he can stay on the field.

Mac Jones threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns and finished third in Week 1 air yards. However, I would not be quick to predict a fantasy breakout season from Jones yet. Unlike Miami, the Patriots were behind the eight-ball for most of this game. They trailed by 16 points in the first quarter in a game they never led. New England was forced to throw the ball early and often. The Patriots called 60-designed pass plays versus just 20 run plays. That is not a sustainable formula for success in New England going forward. I expect some improvement over last season from Jones. However, we may have already seen his best fantasy game of 2023. Jones finished as the overall QB2 with 25.1 points. That result is not indicative of future performance.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

This list has quite a few interesting names on it. There is not much to take away from the performances of Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Both are studs and will continue to be. Tee Higgins was targeted down the field consistently, racking up an aDOT of 18.88 yards. The bad news is that he and Joe Burrow did not connect on a single throw in Cincinnati’s Week 1 loss. The usage and air yards suggest last week’s zero was an anomaly, and the game itself was a bit strange. There were some weather issues and sloppy play, and the Bengals just could not get it going offensively. I am not worried about Higgins or any of the other Bengals’ skills players going forward.

There was much speculation about what the passing game for the Los Angeles Rams would look like with Cooper Kupp. Well, all they did was score 30 points and rack up well over 300 passing yards. Matthew Stafford relied heavily on rookie Puka Nacua and third-year wideout Tutu Atwell in Week 1. So much for the narrative of Stafford not being able to connect with his younger teammates. Both Nacua and Atwell are widely available in fantasy leagues. With Kupp set to miss multiple games, both will be popular waiver wire pickups. Nacua’s 15 targets were tied with Hill for the most last week. He would be my priority over Atwell in PPR leagues, though the latter should also have short-term value.

If Week 1 is any indication, Nico Collins could be a great value pick this season. Collins finished third in the NFL with 158 air yards in Houston’s loss to Baltimore. He also set a new career-high with 11 targets. The Texans figure to be playing from behind quite a bit, which could benefit Collins. There is not a lot of receiver depth in Houston, so Collins could have some big weeks ahead. Robert Woods also earned 10 targets in the game, but his aDOT (7.5) was significantly lower than Collins’ 14.36 mark.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

To say that the tight end position was underwhelming for fantasy purposes in Week 1 would be putting it mildly. It surely did not help that Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were not involved in the festivities. But no tight end had more than 56 receiving yards, and only four scored 10 or more PPR points. Still, there is a bit that I believe we can glean from the air yards accumulated by some of these players.

Rookie Luke Musgrave led the way at the position with 72 air yards in Week 1. Even more promising was his 18.0 aDOT. This situation will be an interesting one to monitor in the weeks ahead. Tight ends generally are not targeted very far down the field. Last year, 32 tight ends had at least 300 total air yards. Only three of them had an aDOT of over 10 yards. If Musgrave continues to earn targets downfield, he could have several spike weeks for fantasy production.

Hayden Hurst finished among the top 10 tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards. All told it was not a bad Panthers debut for the former first-round pick. Rookie quarterbacks have often made a habit of treating tight ends like security blankets. Carolina does not have a go-to wide receiver, and Hurst has caught 71.1 percent of his career targets. Hurst could have a solid fantasy season with number-one overall pick Bryce Young under center. He faces a tough matchup this week against the New Orleans Saints, but is worth monitoring in case his high usage continues.

The Top Five WR Underperformers

For this section of the air yards report, I wanted to highlight the wide receiver position specifically. We know that running back and tight end targets generally occur within proximity of the line of scrimmage. It will not help many fantasy managers to know that Derrick Henry had -17 air yards in Week 1. I also wanted to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume.

Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a quiet NFL debut in Week 1. The first-round pick caught three of five passes for just 13 total yards on Sunday. Smith-Njigba was just returning from a fractured left wrist. Given the circumstances, I am inclined to give him a pass for his relatively poor showing. We know he has great ability, and better days are ahead. Still, he figures to be more of an option in PPR formats than those that incorporate standard scoring.

A quick gander at this list proves that a wide receiver can have plenty of value despite not being targeted down the field. Look no further than Romeo Doubs. Doubs caught two touchdown passes in Week 1 after only scoring three times in his rookie campaign. It should be noted, however, that the Packers were missing Christian Watson in this game. I consider him to be a far better fantasy producer than Doubs going forward. Doubs will face the Atlanta Falcons this week. This is not an ideal matchup if for no other reason than the Falcons’ ability to take the air out of the ball. Opportunities may be few and far between for Doubs this week.