Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Kadarius Toney, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.

In recent years, targets and target share have become an important part of how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.

Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.

Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from Week 2 to see if we can uncover any hidden gems. And you can find the full article here with all of my Week 3 takeaways.

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 3

The Top Five Underperformers

Name	Team	Tar	Rec	Rec Yds	Air Yds	aDOT	Air %	Tar %
Kadarius Toney	KC	5	5	35	-2	-0.4	-0.0072	0.1282
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	6	5	34	15	2.5	0.0673	0.1622
JuJu Smith-Schuster	NE	6	5	28	17	2.83	0.045	0.1429
Parris Campbell	NYG	6	4	21	22	3.67	0.0632	0.1714
Josh Downs	IND	5	4	37	26	5.2	0.1793	0.1613

For this section of the air yards report, I will continue to focus on the wide receiver position. We know that running back and tight end targets generally occur close to the line of scrimmage. I will also continue to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume.

I think it is worth noting that after Kadarius Toney dropped multiple passes in the Chiefs’ season-opener, the Chiefs almost exclusively deployed Toney at or behind the line of scrimmage. From a fantasy standpoint, this could be a good thing for the mercurial wideout. Toney is the type of player who can make something out of nothing and excels in space. With the creative ways in which Andy Reid designs plays, particularly in the red zone, Toney could be in line for better weeks ahead. He finished as the overall WR51 last week in PPR. While that is not ideal, it is also not the worst possible outcome. Toney matches up with a weak Bears defense in Week 3 and could be a sneaky play this week.

Seattle rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has made this list in each of his first two weeks in the NFL. The good news is that he has earned 11 targets, which is tied with DK Metcalf for second on the team. However, those 11 targets have resulted in just 47 scoreless yards. So far, there is a clear pecking order in terms of aDOT among the Seahawks’ receivers, and Smith-Njigba (2.27) is firmly behind Metcalf (13.09) and Tyler Lockett (8.5). Though having a low aDOT is not necessarily a death knell, it would be nice to see Smith-Njigba work a bit more downfield. I would not drop the talented rookie, but I am also in no rush to start him anytime soon.