Greetings, avid NFL fans and daily fantasy sports enthusiasts!
As the anticipation mounts for the electrifying kickoff of the new NFL season, so does the excitement for the return of DraftKings’ thrilling DFS contests.
Get ready to embark on a strategic (and hopefully profitable) journey as we delve into ALL the Week 1 matchups on the 13-game classic main slate, meticulously dissecting the player landscape to unearth the hidden gems that will lead you to VICTORY.
From dynamic rushing quarterbacks who are set to light up the scoreboard to elusive running backs poised to carve through defenses that are massively undervalued and skillful receivers ready to seize every target, we’ve got you covered.
And let’s not forget the elite tight ends who can be the ultimate differentiators – or just fall into the end zone – as well as the defense/special team units ready to pounce on their prey against questionable quarterbacks starting opening week.
So, grab your playbook, sharpen your instincts and let’s forge a path to Week 1 dominance on DraftKings for both cash games and GPP tournaments!’
DraftKings Week 1 Strategy & Advice
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) | $6,100
I’m not sure you will find a better value quarterback in the $6,000 range, who averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game last season (tied for sixth) than Geno Smith. The Seahawks passers still can’t seem to knock his atrocious early-career narrative because he is being slept on in Week 1 of the 2023 regular season. Seattle owns the fourth-highest implied team total on the main slate (25.5) against a lowly 2023 Rams unit that has totally overhauled their defense.
They have the second-youngest team in the NFL, and that is going to be accompanied by growing pains. Per PFF, they have the 32nd-ranked secondary entering the season. Four of their five starters at safety/cornerback are former Day 3 NFL Draft selections. They are also starting multiple former undrafted free agents at linebacker. Outside Aaron Donald, it’s hard to name any other Rams starting defender. This should make life easy for Smith to carve up the Rams as 5.0-point home favorites. In two games versus the Rams defense last year (albeit a much better unit overall), Smith averaged nearly 22 fantasy points per game, highlighted by a 28-point game in Week 13. Considering Jaxon Smith-Njigba might not be 100% in this game, it’s easy to double-stack Smith with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) | $6,900
When DraftKings salaries first opened last year, Justin Herbert was priced at $7,600. He’s being heavily discounted in Week 1 DFS after a disappointing season when many things were completely out of his control. Justin Herbert played just four games with a fully healthy combination of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. A rib injury limited his production, as did a season-ending injury to tackle Rashawn Slater. Herbert was also forced into becoming a check-down machine, posting a 6.9 aDOT – third lowest among QBs. I surface all these factors from last season because they are weighing his price down for this year.
And now the difference is he has all his weapons fully healthy at his disposal, first-round pick Quentin Johnston added to the fold and Kellen Moore taking over as the offensive play-caller. Let’s not forget that only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points than Herbert did in 2021. And I love this Week 1 matchup in the dome versus a banged-up Miami Dolphins secondary. They will be without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Herbert also shredded the 2022 Dolphins personnel for a season-high 367 passing yards in Week 14 last season.
My only reservation for the Chargers’ passing game in DFS (especially if he draws heavy rostership) would be his track record versus Vic Fangio. Fangio’s defense slowed Herbert down when he was the head coach of the Denver Broncos. In four games versus Fangio-led defenses from 2020-2021, Herbert has scored fewer than 18 DraftKings fantasy points twice.
Sam Howell (QB – WAS) | $4,900
The second-year quarterback out of UNC impressed over the summer and in preseason contests to earn the starting job in the nation’s capital. I, for one, am not too surprised, considering every time Sam Howell has gotten an opportunity to play, he has performed well. During the preseason, he completed 76% of his passes for 265 yards and three TDs. That was good for an impressive 122.0 passer rating. And during his Week 18 start last year, Howell was equally as effective. He averaged 8.8 yards per attempt with two TDs (one passing, one rushing) and 35 yards on the ground to boot.
Again, his early success is not surprising to any who followed his college profile. When he had legitimate NFL talent around him at North Carolina back in 2020, he finished as the nation’s sixth-highest-graded quarterback (92.3) and fourth-best deep passer (98.0). Howell’s got all the tools to be a fantasy-friendly quarterback, and there’s no better spot for him to be in Week 1 than against a lowly Arizona Cardinals defense that is playing for the 2024 season. They boast PFF’’s 32nd-ranked defensive line and 29th-ranked secondary. This defense is potentially WORSE than it was last season, when it was the consensus bottom-10 unit in most metrics, highlighted by allowing the league’s second-highest passer rating. Buy Howell at sub-$5K to litter your lineup with more studs.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) | $7,700
Until we see another Raiders running back eat into Josh Jacobs’s workload, he needs to be treated like a full-blown bellcow. That was the case last season when he led the NFL in touches. That’s concerning for his long-term availability, but he should be a locked-and-loaded fantasy RB1 for Week 1. In two games versus Denver last year, Jacobs averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game. He is a solid pay-up RB option in Week 1.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) | $6,600
I need exposure like I need oxygen to J.K. Dobbins in Week 1. Dobbins has been kept in bubble wrap for the entire preseason, with the expectations set that he will assume RB1 duties in the Baltimore backfield. The Houston Texans’ run defense has been a bottom-five unit over the past three seasons, so Dobbins should be set for a very productive day rushing.
The Texans tried to plug up their interior with the additions of Sheldon Rankins and Hassan Ridgeway this offseason. However, it remains to be seen if new head coach DeMeco Ryans can turn this unit into the stingy 49ers run defense of the south with overall inferior personnel. In Dobbins’ last five games in 2022, including the playoffs, he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards and 14 carries per game.
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) | $5,400
The planets are aligning for Raheem Mostert in Week 1. Jeff Wilson Jr.. was placed on IR, and rookie De’Von Achane is returning from a shoulder injury. Mostert is hardly a player that fantasy gamers should rely on for the long-term, given his horrible injury track record and 31-year-old age. Still, for Week 1, he looks like the clear-cut No. 1 rusher in the Miami backfield.
And the matchup is divine versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense that does not stop the run. They have ranked inside the bottom six in rushing yards allowed per game since Brandon Staley took over as the head coach in 2021. Consider Mostert, a low-end RB2 play for Week 1. If you can’t roster him this week with confidence, you’ll likely never click the draft button on Mostert at any point during the season. Mike McDaniel has been vocal about running the ball more consistently, and Mostert has been his GUY through different rosters and coaches. In Mostert we trust… for Week 1, that is. Have faith in the ex-49ers running back, even if the Dolphins should fall behind against a high-powered Chargers offense. Mostert finished the 2022 season 15th in route participation among RBs, averaging just under three targets per game.
Jamaal Williams (RB – NO) | $5,100
Alvin Kamara is suspended, and Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury. Therefore, it’s almost impossible to find a better point-per-dollar RB than Jamaal Williams. Any chance of 80% plus snap share is hard to get away from, especially on an offense playing at home as favorites. I also expect Williams to see more work in the receiving game than he did in Detroit. Before last season, Williams caught at least 25 passes over his first five seasons.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) | $7,300
The Herbert-Allen duo has faced Vic Fangio’s defense on three separate occasions since 2020. Allen has posted 12 targets, 10 targets and nine targets in those three contests. He has also scored or posted at least 67 yards with four-plus receptions. If Allen is not held back by injury – currently, he’s healthy as he will ever be – he’s going to be posting fringe fantasy WR1 numbers like we saw during the back half of the 2022 season. The Chargers WR also cooked the Miami Dolphins defense to the tune of 12 catches for 92 yards on 14 targets last season.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) | $7,000
I love Smith this week; therefore, we love his WRs. Metcalf was Seattle’s target share leader in 2022, and I’d expect nothing less from him in his first matchup versus a sans-Ramsey Rams defense. Metcalf has a good chance to hit paydirt in this matchup after leading all players in end-zone targets a season ago. The Rams were at their best in 2022 inside the red zone, allowing the league’s lowest conversion rate. Expect that number to dip dramatically in favor of the Seattle passing game.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) | $5,000
With Terry McLaurin possibly sidelined or limited, Jahan Dotson is poised to capitalize on a target-rich environment against a vulnerable defense. Surprisingly, Dotson outshone McLaurin in 2022 with more WR1 finishes despite playing five fewer games. When you factor in Dotson’s strong performance from Weeks 13-18 last season, he emerges as an enticing breakout candidate for Week 1. During that stretch, he led the Commanders with a robust 24% target share, averaging an impressive 2.2 yards per route run, a stat shared with McLaurin. Moreover, during the NFL preseason, Dotson was clearly Howell’s go-to guy, featuring in 100% of snaps with Howell. When McLaurin left the preseason game due to injury, Dotson promptly hauled in five of seven targets for 76 yards, all in the second quarter, where he commanded a 28% target share. The best part? His salary on DraftKings is a mere $5,000!
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR – DEN) | $3,000
Marvin Mims Jr. is the future, and the future is NOW. Jerry Jeudy is injured. Courtland Sutton is past his prime. Denver traded up for Mims Jr. in the draft as the first pick of the Sean Payton era. He’s a top-24 WR in 2023. Book it. And his production will start in Week 1 as a full-time player in the Broncos offense. Mims has great cornerback matchups against veteran Marcus Peters and rookie Jakorian Bennett that he can fully take advantage of with his elite speed. Peters won’t know what hit him. I am trying to find a spot to FLEX Mims’ upside in Week 1. He comes at the stone minimum price tag of just $3,000.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) | $4,800
Tyler Higbee is poised for a strong Week 1 performance. Last season, the Rams’ tight end was heavily involved, ranking seventh in route participation (71%) and boasting a 21% target share (fourth) among tight ends with 80 targets. His 24% target rate per route run (third) was impressive. He averaged 9.04 PPR points per game, landing in the top 10. With the potential absence of Cooper Kupp due to a hamstring injury, Higbee could become the key target in the offense, leading to a surge in targets.
Consider him a solid back-end TE1 option. Plus, Seattle has struggled against tight ends in recent years – ranking inside the bottom five in points allowed to tight ends over the last two seasons – making this matchup even more enticing.
Luke Musgrave (TE – GB) | $2,900
Packers TE Luke Musgrave is the clear-cut TE1 in Green Bay with an elite role. He ran a route on 100% of Jordan Love dropbacks in Week 2 of the preseason, indicating his status as a full-time player. Running enough routes is critical in finding breakout TEs, and Musgrave’s role and impressive college production profile suggest he is on the cusp of immediate impact. Stash him if he’s on waivers, and start him if you need a Week 1 flier. He’s also the perfect punt tight end on DraftKings, egregiously priced at $2,900.
Defense/Special Teams
Washington Commanders D/ST ($2,800)
At the time of this writing, we still don’t know who QB1 will be for the Arizona Cardinals come Week 1. Jonathan Gannon has remained hush-hush on the topic, maintaining his stance on “competitive advantage.” The team recently released the newest Underdog Fantasy employee, Colt McCoy, who took many first-team reps with Kyler Murray rehabbing from his ACL injury. It appears it will be either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune under center versus PFF’s third-ranked defensive line with a secondary that looks improved from last year. Don’t overthink the 7.0-point home favorite Commanders in cash games (as the highest projected scoring D/ST in Week 1), and only fade in tournaments as leverage regarding rostership percentage.
Green Bay Packers D/ST ($2,800)
The perfect pivot off a chalky Commanders’ D/ST is the Green Bay Packers. They will not doubt be overlooked at the exact same price tag. But the VAST difference in rostership makes them THE perfect pivot. For starters, the matchup is great. They are the third-highest projected scoring DST in Week 1. Against starting Bears QB Justin Fields – who has a propensity to take sacks – Green Bay’s defense has scored nine, 10 and 15 fantasy points in their three previous matchups versus Chicago under current defensive coordinator Joe Barry.
With some injuries hitting the Bears’ offensive line during the preseason – no Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair moving from center to guard – expect the Packers to make life tough on the Bears offense in Week 1. They finished eighth in pressure rate last season. Fields was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks versus Green Bay in 2022, posting an 0-3 TD-INT ratio.
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