Winning your fantasy draft comes down to selecting the guys who end up returning a positive ROI relative to their draft cost. What’s great is that once you get to the middle and late rounds, you don’t need to hit on every player (or even half of them) to wind up with a league-winning squad. You just need to be right enough so that the value your picks provide is greater than that of your competition.

Part of the difficulty built into this game we love is that no two sleepers are created equally. You can’t just nab a bunch of upside players in the late rounds and expect to dominate your draft. You need to know which sleepers are the most undervalued and offer the most upside compared to their price. To help you figure out which mid-to-late rounders stand out from the pack, we have polled 80+ experts on who the best sleepers are at every position in half-PPR heading into the new season. Check out which WRs they chose below.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Consensus Fantasy Football Sleepers: Running Backs

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?

Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)

“Roschon Johnson is a lesser-known player being a day three rookie who played in the shadows of Bijan Robinson. Johnson is already running with the ones, and the grip that Khalil Herbert has on the job is not tight. Herbert has struggled in pass protection and with drops. Johnson has the size and ability of a three-down back. Could end up being the starter, and he is being drafted 158th over (RB52).”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)

Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)

“I am all-in on Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby. Travis Etienne struggled at the goal line last season and is not the natural pass catcher that people think he is. Bigsby is not only tough to take down when he gets carries, but he had 32 receptions in college, making him a potential three-down RB should Etienne get injured. I think he is particularly a great play in standard and 0.5-pt PPR formats. Bigsby is a great choice as your RB4 this season.”
– Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy)

“The Jaguars’ rookie RB has looked good in preseason and appears to have carved out a role for himself in the offense. Travis Etienne will be the starter, but Tank Bigsby has the opportunity to be the team’s power rusher and goal-line back. Huge upside compared to his ECR of RB48.”
– Neema Hodjat (Real GM)

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

“Javonte Williams. The guy was the league’s top tackle-breaking rusher prior to his ACL tear last season, and by all accounts he will be as close to 100 percent as one can be coming off such an injury (their first year back). Many assume a runner cannot return to form that first year coming off an ACL tear, but that is just lazy analysis; it really just comes down to preparedness, age and situation, all of which Javonte has in his favor to an extreme degree. Javonte is having a near miracle recovery and he has top 10RB value written all over him heading into Week 1.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

“Jaylen Warren will be this year’s biggest sleeper. While rookies are a trendy pick for these, Warren has slipped through the cracks. In his rookie season, he averaged a hefty 4.9 yards per carry and recorded 28 receptions. With how he’s looked so far this preseason, it could be only a matter of time before he’s threatening Najee Harris for the lion’s share of work in this Steeler’s backfield ”
– David Mendelson (Triple Play Fantasy)

“Jaylen Warren should climb the RB rankings as the season progresses and the young Steelers offense begins to claim its identity, and I’m banking that that identity will include passing attempts to RBs. Last season, Najee Harris had 200 more rushing attempts than Warren and ran for almost 700 more yards; however, Kenny Pickett demonstrated his preference for throwing to the rookie as Warren finished only 13 receptions and 15 yards behind Harris while showing a superior 7.6 yards per reception. I think this backfield will be treated like more of a committee than people expect, and Warren’s ability to catch the ball will set him apart.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

David Montgomery (RB – CHI)

“I feel like I’m cheating by listing Montgomery as a sleeper, but he falls within the parameters of this exercise. It is well documented in late August how many touches were left behind (421 to be exact) in Detroit’s backfield with the departures of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs now take over their respective roles. While Montgomery likely won’t find the end zone 17 times like Williams did (anomaly of anomalies), he’s a strong candidate for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. If he plays a full season, the first-year Lion is a lock for RB2 status and can even attain Top 15 accolades.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

“We all love Jahmyr Gibbs. He checks all the boxes for success with the Lions. However, there is room on this team for two prolific RBs. Last year we saw Jamaal Williams’ impressive season; David Montgomery is a better RB. The Lions have nearly 85% available carries and nearly 97% carries inside the five-yard line. Those touches often turn into TDs! He is being ranked as the RB30, and there is potential for him to be a solid RB2 with production spikes when those TDs come around.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

“I was shocked that David Montgomery is still being drafted outside of the top 25. I believe he is a lock for top-24 production with his volume and potential behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. No matter how electric 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs is, his size limits his ability to be a between-the-tackle grinder like Montgomery. I’m not calling for a Jamaal Williams 2.0 season with 17 TDs, but Montgomery’s touchdown upside is certainly the icing on this cake.”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“Efficiency-wise, Cook was solid, averaging 6.2 yards per touch, the 4th best by a rookie RB over the last decade with 100+ touches. The second-year pro is locked into the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in the Bills passing attack. Give him a slight bump in PPR leagues; he’s more of a FLEX-type play to start the year but has the upside to finish as a solid RB2.”
– Marc Shannep (Fantasy Knockout)

Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)

“Jerick McKinnon – After the Week 8 Chiefs bye, McKinnon averaged 4.3 catches and 13.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game, tied for 5th and 10th most among regular running backs. And he is poised to play a similar role in 2023 after the Chiefs made just modest additions to their backfield in former Jets journeyman La’Mical Perine and undrafted rookie Deneric Prince.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

“Alvin Kamara being listed among available RB “Sleepers” is everything you need to know about how undervalued he is going into this season. Yes, his three-game suspension is an annoyance for fantasy managers; however, the suspension is baked into the cost at his current ADP of RB27. People forget just how dominant Alvin Kamara can be when he is in a legitimate offense, not one led by Taysom Hill or Andy Dalton. In his down year last year, Kamara was still the RB13 in PPG despite a decrease in efficiency, only four total TDs (including three in one game), and issues at the QB position. With a hungry Derek Carr at the helm, I expect the Saints offense to be much improved this season, and Kamara drafters will be very happy they took a chance on him once Week Four rolls around. ”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

“Alvin Kamara, a SLEEPER? “THE” Alvin Kamara, who has dominated leagues for almost all of the past half-decade? Yes, Kamara won’t play the first three games of the 2023 season; we all know that. But the industry is acting like he’s going to miss half the calendar year with a current ECR of RB27. Let’s not forget that Kamara was still the RB14 from Week 5 onward last season and saw increases from the previous year in games played, receptions, targets, receiving yards, and yards per carry. Newly-signed Saints QB Derek Carr has a sweet spot for peppering his RBs with passes, too, just look at what he did feeding Josh Jacobs a career-high 64 targets last season. Kamara is an absolute bargain in the sixth/seventh round of your fantasy football drafts, with true top-five RB potential to boot. Remember, Kamara was THE RB5 in 2021, less than two full seasons ago. Think about that, and adjust your draft strategies accordingly, especially given that the Saints have THE easiest schedule of all 32 NFL teams according to both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

“Khalil Herbert should break out in a big way! In 2022, Herbert was number one in the percentage of runs that went for 10 or more yards – he was also second in yards after contact per attempt and third in missed tackles forced per carry. He’s been an incredibly efficient runner when given the chance, and now he’ll have the easiest path to opportunity in his career. ”
– Alfredo Brown (Footballguys)

“RB Khalil Herbert has a great chance to be the steal of the draft this year, stepping into the RB1 role for a Bears team that finished third in the NFL in rushing last season. Herbert has shown plenty of upside in his young career, including leading all running backs with a 5.7 yards per carry average in 2022 (minimum 100 attempts) despite not giving up a fumble. Now atop the depth chart in Chicago, Herbert is a safe bet for 200+ touches and 8+ total touchdowns as a potential three-down back. For a player being taken on average as the RB33 in fantasy drafts, it is hard not to like Herbert’s chances to return top-24 value at the position in 2023.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

“Antonio Gibson is a converted WR, and it seems like he’s FINALLY set to actually be utilized in a receiving role. Even in a limited role, Gibson has run 27 routes and received five targets through two preseason games. Snap share doesn’t even matter, as Jerick McKinnon finished as a top 24 RB with only a 46% snap share (72 targets). If Gibson approaches that (remember, Eric Bienemy is now his OC), he’s a screaming value.”
– Jamie Calandro (Football Diehards)

“Antonio Gibson’s current half-PPR ADP has him as a low-end RB3, but I expect him to easily finish as an RB2 in 2023. He was actually a low-end RB1 in half-PPR leagues in his last two fully healthy seasons (2021-22). While Brian Robinson is clearly the early-down back, Gibson has the pass-catching role all to himself this year with J.D. McKissic out of the picture. Expect him to top the career-high 46 receptions he hauled in last season. ”
– Justin Sablich (5th Down Fantasy)

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)

“Brian Robinson is set to continue his late-season success from his rookie season. In his final five games of 2022, he averaged 4.48 yards per attempt and, more importantly, carried the ball 19.4 times per game. Already the clear 1A in Washington’s backfield along with Antonio Gibson, the only limitation is a reduced role as a receiver relative to other lead backs. In the preseason, new OC Eric Bienemy is utilizing Robinson as a pass-catcher, including 4 targets in the first half of the most recent preseason game. Robinson is a potential top-15 fantasy RB that is being drafted as the RB33 on average.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

“Brian Robinson has been all but forgotten after what many believe was a disappointing rookie season. By his own admission, he never felt right following the offseason robbery attempt that resulted in two gunshots to his leg. Now fully healthy, his early-down role for the Commanders is unquestioned, and he should factor more as a receiver as well, with Antonio Gibson being moved around the formation to better use his skillset. For his current ranking, Brian Robinson makes for a fine volume-based, value-on sleeper.”
– Jeff Haverlack (Dynasty League Football)

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)

“Tyjae Spears: Spears has locked down the RB2 role behind Derrick Henry, who’s totaled nearly 1,900 career touches. We’ve seen flashes of the rookie’s high-end burst this preseason — most notably on a 33-yard TD run. While Tennessee’s O-line needs work, an upgraded WR corps should help support RB2 value in any games Henry misses. If Spears’ RB59 ADP holds up, there’s no risk to stashing him as an RB5.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Check out more Fantasy Football Sleepers

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