Last week, we asked our FeaturedPros experts for their biggest sleeper in the 2023 fantasy football season. The experts have offered their opinions on who will make your season, but who will break it? This is arguably even more important than who the top sleepers are because one or two busts are all it takes to crush your playoff hopes right out of the gate, especially if those underperformers were taken high in the draft. This week, we asked them for their biggest busts, and they had quite a bit to say.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Check out our Fantasy Football Sleepers  

Consensus Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, and why?

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)

“Travis Etienne Jr. didn’t quite live up to the hype he received in 2022. He saw a minuscule target share (6.5%) following former teammate James Robinson‘s midseason trade and faded down the stretch last season. With third-round rookie Tank Bigsby now in the fold, it’s difficult to imagine Etienne Jr. can perform to the near-RB1 price tag he carries in a committee backfield. HC Doug Pederson has only given an RB more than 50% of the team’s carries once in his six seasons as an NFL coach. So unless Etienne Jr. gets way more involved as a receiver and/or scores a ton of TDs, he’ll be a bad value at cost in drafts.”
– C.H. Herms (Draft Sharks)

“Travis Etienne Jr. will be the biggest bust for fantasy based on where managers have to draft him this season. Currently going as the RB10 in half-PPR, managers are drafting him at his absolute ceiling. The major issue here is that in order to truly hit that ceiling, he would need all the work to himself like we saw in the middle of last year. However, with Tank Bigsby now in town to take the goal line and some pass-catching work, Etienne will lose out on those valuable fantasy touches. Doug Peterson has told us that he wants to keep Etienne healthy, which means a lower workload, so unless he has a hyper-efficient season or an outlier touchdown year, he will disappoint fantasy managers drafting him as an RB1 this season.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

“While it is easy to be excited about the talent Bijan Robinson brings into the NFL, he is on the wrong team to showcase it. Tyler Allgeier ran for 1,000+ Yards on 210 carries, and Cordarelle Patterson is still one of the most lethal goal-line RBs in the NFL who is getting paid $4.25 Million this season. Do you really think both of these players are going to be on the sidelines all season? Even coach Arthur Smith said he was going to ride the hot hand. Everyone hyping Bijan Robinson is similar to when everyone (besides BEAST DOME) hyped up Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st Round when he was a Rookie, overhyped, and it is not going to work out.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“This year’s biggest fantasy bust will be Bijan Robinson. He’s a talented player, but he’s an unproven rookie in a terrible offense in Atlanta. He’s too high risk as he is ranked as the 3rd running back ranked in fantasy drafts. With Robinson being ranked 8th overall, he’s priced to perfection. There are safer, more proven options in the first round that you should be drafting. ”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

“Bijan Robinson is getting drafted as a top-five running back, but will he get enough touches, and will the Falcons offense be strong enough to support that productivity? Over the past five seasons, only one running back cracked the top five at his position in PPR-scoring, with fewer than 10 touchdowns (Ezekiel Elliott in 2018, but that required 381 touches). If Desmond Ridder proves to be a bust, this offense might not be productive enough for Robinson to post top-tier numbers, especially with Tyler Allgeier likely taking some of his scoring opportunities. ”
– Ryan McCrystal (Sharp Football Analysis)

“It’s all relative. Do I expect Bijan Robinson to have a solid season? Yes. Do I see his top-seven ADP as an extremely high asking price? Yes. Therein lies the struggle with trying to place Robinson properly. He can easily deliver an outstanding fantasy performance by year’s end, but he’s actually on a crowded roster with Tyler Allgeier — who averaged nearly five yards-per-carry — Cordarrelle Patterson — who was arguably the focal point of Atlanta’s offense when healthy — and a second-year quarterback in Desmond Ridder who had 16 carries of his own in four games last season. Every contributing factor would need to go in Robinson’s direction for him to be worth his hype-inflated ADP, and I’m not willing to take that chance in the middle of the first round.”
– Mario Mergola (Sporfolio)

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

“The Jets were so confident in Hall’s knee that they drafted Israel Abanikanda and then went out and signed Dalvin Cook. Like I’ve said numerous times, torn ACLs are very serious injuries. Most RBs struggle the following season after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery. It takes many athletes two years to feel close to one hundred percent. Hall isn’t getting a bell cow role anytime soon. ”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)

“It took Sanders four years, the best offensive line in the NFL, and defenses simultaneously focusing on Jalen Hurts‘s rushing ability to crack 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns. Now, his situation is dramatically different. In Carolina, he’ll have a rookie quarterback with less mobility and defenses able to zero in on stopping one rushing threat. Sanders will finish as a low-end RB2 with minimal upside. Add in his fourth-round-average draft position, and I’ll be passing on the former Eagles rusher.”
– Bill Enright (Sports Illustrated)

“Despite coming from his best season, Miles Sanders is a guy who fluctuates a lot from week to week. The move to the Panthers is a decline, as it will no longer have the Eagles’ OL leadership or the Hurts’ great offense. Too much volume might not help at all playing a no-explosion offense, with a rookie QB, where defenses will be more focused on the ground game.”
– Fantasy BR (Fantasy BR)

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)

“Pollard made his living last year on long touchdowns, something that is surely due to regress. The Cowboys, in general, will run fewer plays with Mike McCarthy at the play-calling helm, judging by his slower pace of play in Green Bay. I also am worried about Pollard’s ability to handle a full workload, something he has never done.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)

“While the talent is there, everyone is drafting Tony Pollard assuming he will be an every-down player. He’s a Lamborghini, not some Toyota. Either his touches will remain monitored, or he will break down. As a result, his yards may not increase much, and his 12 touchdowns from last season may be hard to duplicate. ”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)

Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)

“One thing’s for sure: Mattison is no Dalvin Cook. Although he has already worked sporadically behind Cook and is ‘very excited’ about taking on a bigger workload, he looks to me as the almost perfect definition of dead zone RB. Is there a path for Mattison to be a top-15 running back? Definitely. However, I think we are overvaluing the situation over talent… I’m not that excited about the Vikings’ new supposed “workhorse.”
– Francisco (Chato) Romero (Estadio Fantasy)

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

“Jonathan Taylor has already started his 2023 campaign on the wrong foot. Not only is he banged up, but he wants a trade out of Indianapolis and a brand spanking new contract that will reset the running back market with his new team. On top of that, now that the Colts did not trade him before Tuesday, Taylor is now going to miss the first four weeks minimum of the season on the PUP list. Yeah, no, thank you. I can’t get on board with this one, as there are too many moving parts here. This is just not the business I want to be involved in. Add in further injury risk along with a questionable floor-to-ceiling ratio wherever he goes, and I am avoiding Taylor at all costs in season-long redraft formats.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

“I want no part of Najee Harris where he is being taken in 2023 drafts. His usage dropped significantly in his sophomore season, and he only finished as an RB1 three times vs. eight times in 2021. Fantasy GMs are taking a big gamble trusting Harris with such high draft capital as you would need to take him at the end of the second round or third round to acquire. Jaylen Warren will split time with Najee, which makes me ghost Harris in drafts. Guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, or Joe Mixon are much more appealing picks in his draft range.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

“Najee Harris at the start of the third round is a BRUTAL price for a running back who has never ranked above NFL average in terms of efficiency and is only going where he is because of projected volume. To me, that’s the sign of a dead-zone RB, and with the impending threat of Jaylen Warren stealing touches each week, I struggle to see the upside in the mediocre Steelers offense. ”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)

“Najee Harris is a landmine who gamers should avoid at the second and third-round turn. Harris’s fantasy value is entirely derived from a hefty workload to this point in his young career. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Harris has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, 2.9 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) and sprung just 16 rushes for 15-plus yards in his career. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren was better in each efficiency metric as a runner last year. Furthermore, Harris is also an inefficient receiver, posting only 0.77 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) through two years. Warren should cut into Harris’s workload this year, destroying Harris’s fantasy value.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

“The RB position has a number of players to fire into the hopper, starting straight from the top of the heap. McCaffrey & the holdout/contract situations are fairly obvious, but I’ll drift here down to the back-end of the RB1 heap. That brings me to Najee Harris. I like the direction of the offense, and I do believe that the skill position players in PT will allow Kenny Pickett to excel. However, Harris’ role and workload will be challenged from the outset by Jaylen Warren. Warren averaged nearly 5 yards per carry and handled the passing game well as a rookie. Remember, Harris was dealing with a lisfranc injury in ’22, so the door opened for Warren to assume a prominent role and show his abilities. I don’t think that door shuts just because Harris is healthy in ’23. Run the ball and play D. Deploy both backs. Make things easier for Pickett. Win. ”
– Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

“Warren had a better YPA and explosive run rate than Najee Harris last season because he took easier-difficulty carries. On well-blocked plays with 5 or more yards before contact, Harris bested Warren with a 43.9% versus a 41.2% explosive run rate (10-plus yards). Warren will play more than last season and should catch a decent number of passes. But I expect Harris to continue a close to 70/30 touch advantage.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“Volume is king in fantasy football, but James Conner is a king on a team of fantasy pawns. It’s football’s worst-kept secret that the Cardinals are tanking this season. Kyler Murray will miss several games while opposing defenses hone in on stopping Arizona’s running game with Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs under center. Add Conner’s extensive injury history to this recipe, and he’s a swipe left for me. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

“Is it possible Jahmyr Gibbs catches 50+ balls and goes on to have a great fantasy season? Of course, but receptions are the only way I see Gibbs satisfying his never-ending climb in ADP. Getting goal-line work would be a surprise based on how he was used in college. And while heavy rushing work isn’t necessary for fantasy success, Gibbs failed to clear even the lowest success metrics in college despite rarely facing stacked boxes. Be prepared for too much David Montgomery if you draft Gibbs at his current ADP.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

“Derrick Henry has proven me wrong often. But his success depends on volume, and that will require the Titans to overachieve again (their Vegas O/U line is 7.5 wins). Because they’ll probably need to throw more often, he’s likely to disappoint.”
– John Halpin (your league’s Draft Intel today)

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

“Josh Jacobs is one of the most concerning players in fantasy football 2023. With close to 400 touches last season, not being on the field for all of August (which always increases the likelihood of injury), and great odds of facing stacked boxes all year long, how is Jacobs going to even sniff the red zone with Jimmy G as his passer? A disappointing outcome seems very likely for those investing in Jacobs at late second- to early third-round cost. Instead, draft Jahmyr Gibbs, Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Ken Walker, Breece Hall, or Justin Fields.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

“Josh Jacobs finished first in touches last season. Holding this accolade is great the year that it happens, but dear lord does the history of RBs after leading the NFL touches create major concern for Jacobs after his breakout season. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. The other 7 running backs were essentially all season-long busts. Historically speaking, the odds are not stacked in Jacobs’ favor to return fantasy RB1 value in 2023.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Josh Jacobs will be a fantasy bust at his current ADP because of “The Curse of 370”. The “Curse of 370,” an article by Aaron Schatz, states that if a running back has more than 370 carries in a season (rushing attempts and catches), the running back’s chances of a stellar following season drastically decrease. Jacobs last season finished with 340 rushes and 53 receptions. ”
– Mason “Mase” Riney (Fantasy Six Pack)

“What is the old saying: don’t hate the player, hate the ADP? And maybe the history of backs coming off high-usage seasons AND maybe players that report late to camp. Injuries may not be predictable per se, but there is overwhelming recent evidence that running backs struggle to stay healthy the year after they either lead the league in touches and/or surpass 370 touches AND if they miss most of camp. Even if Josh Jacobs somehow avoids all of these common roadblocks, it is a near certainty that Zamir White will handle more than 17 carries in 2023. At least in my mind, there is a far better chance Jacobs finishes outside the top 20 than inside the top 10.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)

“It’s hard to understand the enthusiasm for J.K. Dobbins. He’s talented, but he’s struggled to recover from the major knee injury he sustained two years ago and missed the start of this year’s training camp. Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh seems inclined to go with a committee approach at RB. When Dobbins was a rookie in 2020, he averaged 10.6 carries a game and had only 15 more carries than Gus Edwards, who’s still on the roster. Dobbins has 25 receptions in 23 career games, and his pass-catching potential is always going to be limited because Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rarely checks down to his RBs. Jackson is also going to call his own number near the goal line quite a bit, taking TD opportunities away from his RBs. I’ve been in dozens of drafts this summer and haven’t drafted Dobbins once.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“J.K. Dobbins is two years removed from a horrific knee injury, and while he has shown great efficiency running the ball since then, I have season-long durability questions. And that’s not all. Dobbins was targeted on average just ONCE per game in 2022. In today’s game of fantasy, this is a manager’s worst nightmare. With that said, he only had nine rushing attempts inside the 15 and failed to score a touchdown in 75 percent of his games. The combination of lack of passing game involvement and lack of red zone touches equals a dangerously low fantasy floor. I’m out on J.K. Dobbins at his ADP.”
– Elvin Ryan (FantasyPros)

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

“I’m out on Cam Akers’ ADP of RB22. You can keep telling yourself that he was the RB7 over the last six weeks of the season; however, four of these games were against the bottom six rushing defenses. Over the other 11 weeks, he averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game. This Rams team is currently tied for the second-lowest projected win total. This is a team that is going to be pass-heavy and playing from behind often. Considering Akers has one career game over 3 targets, that’s not a good sign. It’s an uphill battle for Akers, and I’d rather take a shot on Miles Sanders or Alexander Mattison, who are being drafted around him. ”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

“A healthy Christian McCaffrey won’t kill your fantasy team. But you should pass on him because drafting him at cost keeps you from getting a top wideout while likely giving you no advantage over Tony Pollard. McCaffrey’s half-PPR points per game fell 2+ points last year vs. any of his previous four seasons. His PPR scoring average in five games with Elijah Mitchell would have ranked 7th at the position (12th in non-PPR). The 49ers have lots of offensive options, and thus no reason to feed McCaffrey as heavily as he got used in Carolina. On top of that, the Draft Sharks Injury Predictor gives him an 82% chance of missing at least some time with injury. Take a WR in Round 1 and shop RB thereafter.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)

Check out our Fantasy Football Sleepers  

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.