Last week, we asked our FeaturedPros experts for their biggest sleeper in the 2023 fantasy football season. The experts have offered their opinions on who will make your season, but who will break it? This is arguably even more important than who the top sleepers are because one or two busts are all it takes to crush your playoff hopes right out of the gate, especially if those underperformers were taken high in the draft. This week, we asked them for their biggest busts, and they had quite a bit to say.

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Top Consensus Busts

Quarterback Busts

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, and why?

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

“Deshaun Watson is drafted as the QB9, and I just can’t get behind it. His off-field actions make him a pretty easy fade, but reports out of camp have also not been very positive. Add his weak 2022 tape to the equation, and I’m left underwhelmed. I do see the upside if he reverts to his old form, but I’d rather just wait and draft Anthony Richardson.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)

“The Giants added Darren Waller and Parris Campbell via free agency to boost their passing game, but is that really enough to move the needle for Daniel Jones? Buoyed by over 700 yards and seven TDs on the ground, the former Duke signal-caller enters his fifth season with one good fantasy season on his resume. Jones was too reliant on his rushing totals and averaged just 6.8 yards per pass attempt last year (t-24th). I expect a regression towards his fantasy career mean in 2023 after last year’s fluky QB9 finish in 2022.”
– Matt De Lima (The Game Day)

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)

“I have concerns about how well Aaron Rodgers will do with the New York Jets. The offensive line will be a problem all year long, and it will wear him down. Rodgers did not surpass 300+ passing yards once last year, and I think we see more of the same. Obviously, Garret Wilson will be an upgrade for Rodgers, but if he doesn’t have time to get him the ball, it won’t matter. There are better, cheaper options you can go with at the QB position.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)

Running Back Busts

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, and why?

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)

“Travis Etienne Jr. didn’t quite live up to the hype he received in 2022. He saw a minuscule target share (6.5%) following former teammate James Robinson‘s midseason trade and faded down the stretch last season. With third-round rookie Tank Bigsby now in the fold, it’s difficult to imagine Etienne Jr. can perform to the near-RB1 price tag he carries in a committee backfield. HC Doug Pederson has only given an RB more than 50% of the team’s carries once in his six seasons as an NFL coach. So unless Etienne Jr. gets way more involved as a receiver and/or scores a ton of TDs, he’ll be a bad value at cost in drafts.”
– C.H. Herms (Draft Sharks)

“Travis Etienne Jr. will be the biggest bust for fantasy based on where managers have to draft him this season. Currently going as the RB10 in half-PPR, managers are drafting him at his absolute ceiling. The major issue here is that in order to truly hit that ceiling, he would need all the work to himself like we saw in the middle of last year. However, with Tank Bigsby now in town to take the goal line and some pass-catching work, Etienne will lose out on those valuable fantasy touches. Doug Peterson has told us that he wants to keep Etienne healthy, which means a lower workload, so unless he has a hyper-efficient season or an outlier touchdown year, he will disappoint fantasy managers drafting him as an RB1 this season.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

“While it is easy to be excited about the talent Bijan Robinson brings into the NFL, he is on the wrong team to showcase it. Tyler Allgeier ran for 1,000+ Yards on 210 carries, and Cordarelle Patterson is still one of the most lethal goal-line RBs in the NFL who is getting paid $4.25 Million this season. Do you really think both of these players are going to be on the sidelines all season? Even coach Arthur Smith said he was going to ride the hot hand. Everyone hyping Bijan Robinson is similar to when everyone (besides BEAST DOME) hyped up Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st Round when he was a Rookie, overhyped, and it is not going to work out.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“This year’s biggest fantasy bust will be Bijan Robinson. He’s a talented player, but he’s an unproven rookie in a terrible offense in Atlanta. He’s too high risk as he is ranked as the 3rd running back ranked in fantasy drafts. With Robinson being ranked 8th overall, he’s priced to perfection. There are safer, more proven options in the first round that you should be drafting. ”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

“Bijan Robinson is getting drafted as a top-five running back, but will he get enough touches, and will the Falcons offense be strong enough to support that productivity? Over the past five seasons, only one running back cracked the top five at his position in PPR-scoring, with fewer than 10 touchdowns (Ezekiel Elliott in 2018, but that required 381 touches). If Desmond Ridder proves to be a bust, this offense might not be productive enough for Robinson to post top-tier numbers, especially with Tyler Allgeier likely taking some of his scoring opportunities. ”
– Ryan McCrystal (Sharp Football Analysis)

“It’s all relative. Do I expect Bijan Robinson to have a solid season? Yes. Do I see his top-seven ADP as an extremely high asking price? Yes. Therein lies the struggle with trying to place Robinson properly. He can easily deliver an outstanding fantasy performance by year’s end, but he’s actually on a crowded roster with Tyler Allgeier — who averaged nearly five yards-per-carry — Cordarrelle Patterson — who was arguably the focal point of Atlanta’s offense when healthy — and a second-year quarterback in Desmond Ridder who had 16 carries of his own in four games last season. Every contributing factor would need to go in Robinson’s direction for him to be worth his hype-inflated ADP, and I’m not willing to take that chance in the middle of the first round.”
– Mario Mergola (Sporfolio)

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

“The Jets were so confident in Hall’s knee that they drafted Israel Abanikanda and then went out and signed Dalvin Cook. Like I’ve said numerous times, torn ACLs are very serious injuries. Most RBs struggle the following season after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery. It takes many athletes two years to feel close to one hundred percent. Hall isn’t getting a bell cow role anytime soon. ”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)

“It took Sanders four years, the best offensive line in the NFL, and defenses simultaneously focusing on Jalen Hurts‘s rushing ability to crack 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns. Now, his situation is dramatically different. In Carolina, he’ll have a rookie quarterback with less mobility and defenses able to zero in on stopping one rushing threat. Sanders will finish as a low-end RB2 with minimal upside. Add in his fourth-round-average draft position, and I’ll be passing on the former Eagles rusher.”
– Bill Enright (Sports Illustrated)

“Despite coming from his best season, Miles Sanders is a guy who fluctuates a lot from week to week. The move to the Panthers is a decline, as it will no longer have the Eagles’ OL leadership or the Hurts’ great offense. Too much volume might not help at all playing a no-explosion offense, with a rookie QB, where defenses will be more focused on the ground game.”
– Fantasy BR (Fantasy BR)

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)

“Pollard made his living last year on long touchdowns, something that is surely due to regress. The Cowboys, in general, will run fewer plays with Mike McCarthy at the play-calling helm, judging by his slower pace of play in Green Bay. I also am worried about Pollard’s ability to handle a full workload, something he has never done.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)

“While the talent is there, everyone is drafting Tony Pollard assuming he will be an every-down player. He’s a Lamborghini, not some Toyota. Either his touches will remain monitored, or he will break down. As a result, his yards may not increase much, and his 12 touchdowns from last season may be hard to duplicate. ”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)

Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)

“One thing’s for sure: Mattison is no Dalvin Cook. Although he has already worked sporadically behind Cook and is ‘very excited’ about taking on a bigger workload, he looks to me as the almost perfect definition of dead zone RB. Is there a path for Mattison to be a top-15 running back? Definitely. However, I think we are overvaluing the situation over talent… I’m not that excited about the Vikings’ new supposed “workhorse.”
– Francisco (Chato) Romero (Estadio Fantasy)

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

“Jonathan Taylor has already started his 2023 campaign on the wrong foot. Not only is he banged up, but he wants a trade out of Indianapolis and a brand spanking new contract that will reset the running back market with his new team. On top of that, now that the Colts did not trade him before Tuesday, Taylor is now going to miss the first four weeks minimum of the season on the PUP list. Yeah, no, thank you. I can’t get on board with this one, as there are too many moving parts here. This is just not the business I want to be involved in. Add in further injury risk along with a questionable floor-to-ceiling ratio wherever he goes, and I am avoiding Taylor at all costs in season-long redraft formats.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

“I want no part of Najee Harris where he is being taken in 2023 drafts. His usage dropped significantly in his sophomore season, and he only finished as an RB1 three times vs. eight times in 2021. Fantasy GMs are taking a big gamble trusting Harris with such high draft capital as you would need to take him at the end of the second round or third round to acquire. Jaylen Warren will split time with Najee, which makes me ghost Harris in drafts. Guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, or Joe Mixon are much more appealing picks in his draft range.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

“Najee Harris at the start of the third round is a BRUTAL price for a running back who has never ranked above NFL average in terms of efficiency and is only going where he is because of projected volume. To me, that’s the sign of a dead-zone RB, and with the impending threat of Jaylen Warren stealing touches each week, I struggle to see the upside in the mediocre Steelers offense. ”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)

“Najee Harris is a landmine who gamers should avoid at the second and third-round turn. Harris’s fantasy value is entirely derived from a hefty workload to this point in his young career. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Harris has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, 2.9 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) and sprung just 16 rushes for 15-plus yards in his career. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren was better in each efficiency metric as a runner last year. Furthermore, Harris is also an inefficient receiver, posting only 0.77 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) through two years. Warren should cut into Harris’s workload this year, destroying Harris’s fantasy value.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

“The RB position has a number of players to fire into the hopper, starting straight from the top of the heap. McCaffrey & the holdout/contract situations are fairly obvious, but I’ll drift here down to the back-end of the RB1 heap. That brings me to Najee Harris. I like the direction of the offense, and I do believe that the skill position players in PT will allow Kenny Pickett to excel. However, Harris’ role and workload will be challenged from the outset by Jaylen Warren. Warren averaged nearly 5 yards per carry and handled the passing game well as a rookie. Remember, Harris was dealing with a lisfranc injury in ’22, so the door opened for Warren to assume a prominent role and show his abilities. I don’t think that door shuts just because Harris is healthy in ’23. Run the ball and play D. Deploy both backs. Make things easier for Pickett. Win. ”
– Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

“Warren had a better YPA and explosive run rate than Najee Harris last season because he took easier-difficulty carries. On well-blocked plays with 5 or more yards before contact, Harris bested Warren with a 43.9% versus a 41.2% explosive run rate (10-plus yards). Warren will play more than last season and should catch a decent number of passes. But I expect Harris to continue a close to 70/30 touch advantage.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“Volume is king in fantasy football, but James Conner is a king on a team of fantasy pawns. It’s football’s worst-kept secret that the Cardinals are tanking this season. Kyler Murray will miss several games while opposing defenses hone in on stopping Arizona’s running game with Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs under center. Add Conner’s extensive injury history to this recipe, and he’s a swipe left for me. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

“Is it possible Jahmyr Gibbs catches 50+ balls and goes on to have a great fantasy season? Of course, but receptions are the only way I see Gibbs satisfying his never-ending climb in ADP. Getting goal-line work would be a surprise based on how he was used in college. And while heavy rushing work isn’t necessary for fantasy success, Gibbs failed to clear even the lowest success metrics in college despite rarely facing stacked boxes. Be prepared for too much David Montgomery if you draft Gibbs at his current ADP.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

“Derrick Henry has proven me wrong often. But his success depends on volume, and that will require the Titans to overachieve again (their Vegas O/U line is 7.5 wins). Because they’ll probably need to throw more often, he’s likely to disappoint.”
– John Halpin (your league’s Draft Intel today)

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

“Josh Jacobs is one of the most concerning players in fantasy football 2023. With close to 400 touches last season, not being on the field for all of August (which always increases the likelihood of injury), and great odds of facing stacked boxes all year long, how is Jacobs going to even sniff the red zone with Jimmy G as his passer? A disappointing outcome seems very likely for those investing in Jacobs at late second- to early third-round cost. Instead, draft Jahmyr Gibbs, Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Ken Walker, Breece Hall, or Justin Fields.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)

“Josh Jacobs finished first in touches last season. Holding this accolade is great the year that it happens, but dear lord does the history of RBs after leading the NFL touches create major concern for Jacobs after his breakout season. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. The other 7 running backs were essentially all season-long busts. Historically speaking, the odds are not stacked in Jacobs’ favor to return fantasy RB1 value in 2023.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Josh Jacobs will be a fantasy bust at his current ADP because of “The Curse of 370”. The “Curse of 370,” an article by Aaron Schatz, states that if a running back has more than 370 carries in a season (rushing attempts and catches), the running back’s chances of a stellar following season drastically decrease. Jacobs last season finished with 340 rushes and 53 receptions. ”
– Mason “Mase” Riney (Fantasy Six Pack)

“What is the old saying: don’t hate the player, hate the ADP? And maybe the history of backs coming off high-usage seasons AND maybe players that report late to camp. Injuries may not be predictable per se, but there is overwhelming recent evidence that running backs struggle to stay healthy the year after they either lead the league in touches and/or surpass 370 touches AND if they miss most of camp. Even if Josh Jacobs somehow avoids all of these common roadblocks, it is a near certainty that Zamir White will handle more than 17 carries in 2023. At least in my mind, there is a far better chance Jacobs finishes outside the top 20 than inside the top 10.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)

“It’s hard to understand the enthusiasm for J.K. Dobbins. He’s talented, but he’s struggled to recover from the major knee injury he sustained two years ago and missed the start of this year’s training camp. Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh seems inclined to go with a committee approach at RB. When Dobbins was a rookie in 2020, he averaged 10.6 carries a game and had only 15 more carries than Gus Edwards, who’s still on the roster. Dobbins has 25 receptions in 23 career games, and his pass-catching potential is always going to be limited because Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rarely checks down to his RBs. Jackson is also going to call his own number near the goal line quite a bit, taking TD opportunities away from his RBs. I’ve been in dozens of drafts this summer and haven’t drafted Dobbins once.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“J.K. Dobbins is two years removed from a horrific knee injury, and while he has shown great efficiency running the ball since then, I have season-long durability questions. And that’s not all. Dobbins was targeted on average just ONCE per game in 2022. In today’s game of fantasy, this is a manager’s worst nightmare. With that said, he only had nine rushing attempts inside the 15 and failed to score a touchdown in 75 percent of his games. The combination of lack of passing game involvement and lack of red zone touches equals a dangerously low fantasy floor. I’m out on J.K. Dobbins at his ADP.”
– Elvin Ryan (FantasyPros)

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

“I’m out on Cam Akers’ ADP of RB22. You can keep telling yourself that he was the RB7 over the last six weeks of the season; however, four of these games were against the bottom six rushing defenses. Over the other 11 weeks, he averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game. This Rams team is currently tied for the second-lowest projected win total. This is a team that is going to be pass-heavy and playing from behind often. Considering Akers has one career game over 3 targets, that’s not a good sign. It’s an uphill battle for Akers, and I’d rather take a shot on Miles Sanders or Alexander Mattison, who are being drafted around him. ”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

“A healthy Christian McCaffrey won’t kill your fantasy team. But you should pass on him because drafting him at cost keeps you from getting a top wideout while likely giving you no advantage over Tony Pollard. McCaffrey’s half-PPR points per game fell 2+ points last year vs. any of his previous four seasons. His PPR scoring average in five games with Elijah Mitchell would have ranked 7th at the position (12th in non-PPR). The 49ers have lots of offensive options, and thus no reason to feed McCaffrey as heavily as he got used in Carolina. On top of that, the Draft Sharks Injury Predictor gives him an 82% chance of missing at least some time with injury. Take a WR in Round 1 and shop RB thereafter.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)

Wide Receiver Busts

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, and why?

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)

“Without question, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is the biggest bust candidate. The Cardinals seem to be playing for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes and have little interest in winning. Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune will be the starter, and Brown looks like he can’t get separation from the line of scrimmage. If they trade him at the deadline, there might be a glimmer of hope, but until then, he’s a huge bust.”
– Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy)

“Marquise Brown is who I expect to be the biggest fantasy bust at the WR position. Arizona is in all-out tanking mode, having released the only competent QB on the active roster Colt McCoy. Whether it’s Clayton Tune or Josh Dobbs, this offense will have trouble moving the football on a consistent basis, and a pass catcher like Hollywood should be heavily avoided for fantasy purposes. While he’s the only show in town, opposing defenses will be able to scheme and make adjustments to make Hollywood a headache to roster.”
– David Mendelson (Triple Play Fantasy)

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

“I will have ZERO shares of Mike Williams this season. The 28-year-old is coming off a down season where he finished as the WR32 in Half-PPR leagues after finishing as the WR10 the previous season. The Chargers also spent a first-round draft pick on 6? 3? wide receiver Quentin Johnston this year, which tells me LA wants to spread the ball out. With so many weapons at Justin Herbert‘s disposal, plus Williams’ lengthy injury history, let someone else grab him in the fifth round. Instead, take guys going after him like Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Michael Pittman Jr., and Marquise Brown.”
– Jacob W. Dunne (Fantrax)

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN)

“I want to trash Cole Kmet to stay on brand, but his ADP is not that egregious. I am worried about people drafting DeAndre Hopkins to be their WR2. This will be the lowest passing volume team he’s ever been on, and he certainly won’t be the first offensive option with Derrick Henry on the field. While Hopkins is the team’s best receiver, he’s also 31 years old, and Treylon Brurks will cut into his looks. So, Hopkins will be splitting a smaller pie from a worse quarterback, and we’re drafting him at his ceiling? No, thank you.”
– Ryan Weisse (Club Fantasy FFL)

“While it’s certainly fair to say DeAndre Hopkins has more left in the tank than other veteran WRs who have made their way to Tennessee in recent years (Robert Woods, Julio Jones, Eric Decker, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Eric Moulds, etc.), the major drop in offensive volume can’t be ignored. Hopkins’ offenses averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in Arizona and 34.7 per game in Houston. He now joins a Titans offense that’s averaged just 28.8 passing attempts per game over the past five seasons. While that might seem like a major difference, for a player getting the target volume Hopkins usually commands, that equates to roughly 2 fewer expected targets per game. That should have a major effect on Hopkins’ fantasy production. I have him as a high-end WR4, not a WR2.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

“My pick for biggest fantasy bust is Cooper Kupp. It’s not about the player; it’s about the fragility of his situation. Not only has Kupp suffered ankle and knee injuries in the past, but he’s now entering his age-30 season and playing for one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not to mention that Matthew Stafford (elbow) also has injury concerns. When you factor in the opportunity cost with Kupp (early to mid first-round ADP), you have a risky pick that I prefer to avoid.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

“Deebo Samuel is being taken far too high in drafts. His 2021 season was a total outlier. He scored more TDs in 2021 than in the rest of his career combined, mostly due to usage, which will not occur this season. He averaged 18.2 yards per reception, while in most seasons, he averages under 12. His volume will be threatened by CMC, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and his average depth of target is on a major decline. His ceiling is a low-end WR2, don’t fall for the hype.”
– Ben Wasley (FFD Fantasy Football)

“With Christian McCaffrey around, Deebo Samuel’s workload will never increase. Further, Brandon Aiyuk is emerging steadily as the 49ers’ best receiver with the ever-solid tight end George Kittle. Deebo is kind of the odd man out in this offense. That’s not to say he won’t have big weeks, but the production will likely be unsteady. Deebo will be a player on the short side of a lot of start/sit articles this season.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

“Deebo Samuel is currently #16 on the ECR and #17 in ADP. Deebo has been a top-16 player only twice in the 12 games he played last season. He was 45th or worse four times and scored less than ten PPR points in four games. People are chasing points from 2021 for a player who has had one good fantasy season in four. Brandon Aiyuk is better on a points-per-game basis, and the addition of Christian McCaffrey really lowers Deebo’s upside.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast)

“Deebo Samuel is a great football player, which is very useful for an NFL team and not so much for a fantasy team. He does much of the dirty work on the San Francisco 49ers offense and is a relative Swiss army knife. Unfortunately for Samuel, the 49ers have an up-and-coming Brandon Aiyuk, who will take the next step this year, and the best, most versatile running back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, who will take both carries and catches from the Deebo. At WR #19 (0.5 PPR), Deebo is destined to underperform in comparison to other team WR1s in the league. ”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“Deebo Samuel has a current ADP on sleeper as the WR17 at the beginning of the 4th round. In Deebo’s 4 seasons, he has been better than a WR3 only once. That season was on the back of not only crazy good efficiency but also 8 rushing touchdowns.”
– Bradley Stickler (Sports Gambling Podcast)

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

“This has nothing to do with talent because there are few with the talent of Pickens. The Steelers are still a run-first team and have three pass-catchers in Pickens, Johnson, and Freiermuth, who all want and need the ball. Unfortunately, there is only one ball and a limited amount of targets per game for a team that doesn’t wish to throw 30-plus times. That makes Pickens a TD-dependent WR in this system, who is set up to disappoint fantasy owners.”
– Ken Zalis (FantasyPros)

Davante Adams (WR – LV)

“Davante Adams is a player I’m very concerned about heading into 2023. His ADP of round two is risky for the 30-year-old receiver. Adams has been an elite talent but continues to see downgrades at quarterback. Jimmy G is no Derek Carr regarding arm talent to push the ball downfield. Jimmy G was one of the worst quarterbacks in deep ball throws last year, which doesn’t go well with Adams, who was top 2 in deep ball targets. Adams must be elite with his YAC to see anywhere closer to the numbers in 2023 since I don’t expect much scoring from this offense. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Chris Olave (WR – NO)

“Chris Olave will have much more competition for targets this year in New Orleans. The gap between Andy Dalton and David Carr’s play in 2022 isn’t as big as many may think. While Olave is an ascending player, he is often being over drafted when factoring in his situation entering the season.”
– Scott Smith (RotoViz)

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

“Like a fantasy football Rorschach test, Christian Watson is splattered with wide-range-of-outcomes ink. Based on his rookie season production, the case can be made both for and against him. He played in 14 games. In those 14 games, he scored less than 10 PPR points in eight of them. He scored 15 or more PPR points in five of them. Of those five games, he scored 20 or more in four of them. When he hits, he hits big. When he does not hit, the floor is under 10 points. With Jordan Love taking over, we remain unsure how the production will occur. Being drafted as the WR23 presents enough risk to make Watson a moderate bust-rate receiver and should be viewed as a better asset in best ball formats where managers do not have to decide when to start him. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

“Between the attention he’s going to draw, the growing number of other viable options in the offense, and the inconsistency of Tua Tagovailoa — healthy or not — from game to game, I just can’t see a nearly 30-year-old Hill finishing as a top ten wide receiver in fantasy. And that’s not even taking into account the incredible depth across the league at the position.”
– J.P. Scott (Athlon Sports)

Tight End Busts

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, and why?

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

“David Njoku is being drafted as the TE10 and, in some cases, even being taken as the 9th TE off the board. You are drafting him at his ceiling. He’s never finished better than TE9 and TE10, and now he has even more competition for targets with slot receiver Elijah Moore and sleeper rookie WR Cedric Tillman. This offense runs through Chubb, and Amari Cooper is still the no.1 option in this pass game.”
– Huseyin Aksu (Fantasy Couch)

George Kittle (TE – SF)

“My biggest bust is George Kittle. His production leaned on the fact that players were injured around him, and Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, played above his profile. With everyone healthy, Brock Purdy having a 50% chance to succeed, and the team leaning on CMC and Deebo before Kittle, Kittle is a risky play at his high ADP.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)

“I want to be a believer in another elite season from George Kittle, but I can’t get behind his exorbitant TD rate. In six seasons, Kittle has never had more than six, and he exceeded that number from Week 13-18 last year. San Francisco should be an incredible offense to get behind this year, but there are so many mouths to feed. Kittle’s 13% TD rate is 3x’s his career average, which just screams TD regression. ”
– Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

“I think George Kittle is going to end up being the biggest bust. Last year, he overproduced in touchdowns, scoring five (!) more than his previous career high. I think that’s bound to go down, and even if you think that Brock Purdy is capable of running this offense, there’s little reason to believe that he’s going to elevate it enough to offset some touchdown regression for Kittle. He also has to compete with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk for targets, so he’s going to have some really bad ‘bust’ games. Right now, he’s going as the TE4 a little behind T.J. Hockenson and a bit ahead of Darren Waller, and I’d take both of those guys two rounds earlier than I’d take Kittle.”
– Leo Sells (Couch Report Sports)

“George Kittle probably won’t repeat a career-high in TDs (11). I’m not sure he gets close, given his usage in a full-strength San Francisco offense. In seven games alongside Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, Kittle managed just a 12.3% target share.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)

“In 2022, T.J. Hockenson set career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and his 13 catches for 109 yards and two scores in Week 16 surely propelled many a fantasy manager to their league championship game. However, that one game accounted for 21.7% of Hockenson’s receiving yardage across nine contests with Minnesota last season (excluding Week 18), and he found the endzone just one other time as a Viking. With rookie receiver Jordan Addison likely to garner a larger target share than Adam Thielen did last season, Hockenson will be just another boom-or-bust fantasy tight end in 2023, with arguably less upside than several players currently drafted after him. He’s a hard pass for me at an ADP in the mid-to-late fourth round.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)

“T.J. Hockenson is currently the TE3 off the board according to consensus rankings. Last year, the Vikings TE finished second in his position, but have you noticed how he got there? Touchdown dependent. He only got 10 or more points without a TD in one week, with a 7.58 targets per week, which is excellent for the position. He was only a top-5 TE twice! We are talking about a guy who got more targets than 24 teams targeted their tight ends. His efficiency needs to be better to sustain a top-3 TE for him this year.”
– Guilherme Gianni (Fantasy Futebolista)

Evan Engram (TE – JAC)

“Evan Engram was a popular sleeper candidate last year and finished the season as the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He was outstanding from Week 13 through Week 16, ranking as the TE1, averaging 17.6 fantasy points and 10 targets per game. However, the veteran averaged only 5.4 fantasy points and 4.5 targets per game in the other 13 contests last season. Engram’s role on offense will shrink this year after the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley. There is no reason to draft the veteran as the eighth tight end off the board. He won’t even finish top-12 unless Ridley or Christian Kirk miss significant time.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

“I expect Mark Andrews to be this year’s biggest fantasy football bust. Andrews was being drafted in a similar spot last season and finished TE4, which I classify as a bust. Many attribute this “disappointing” finish to the absence of Lamar Jackson, but did you know that Andrews actually averaged 6.0+ more fantasy points per game with Tyler Huntley at QB in 2021- his TE1 season? Let the record show that Mark Andrews is still TE2 in my rankings, but with an early Round 3 ADP, he simply needs to finish ahead of every TE not named Travis Kelce to avoid being labeled a bust- risky! ”
– Joe Orrico (No Expert FF)

“Mark Andrews is coming off of a down year that saw him miss time with injuries, making it three of four seasons in which he’s missed games. He’s already dealing with an undisclosed injury in the preseason. Lamar Jackson has the best skill position group he’s ever worked with, which could bite into Andews’ target share. I also like the athleticism and upside of second-year TE Isaiah Likely, and he could push for more targets in 2023. I’ll have no shares of Andrews at his current ADP of 27th overall. ”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)

“Travis Kelce is in a league of his own, and the issue is Mark Andrews may be at the top of the next tier, but the ADP of 34 will more than likely not return his value. The discrepancy between Kelce and the TE2 last year was 100 points, and the discrepancy between 2 – 4 was 25 points. Currently, Waller, Pitts, and Goedert all have a chance to be TE2 – 4, and are all being drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds of drafts. Andrews had a phenomenal 2021 season that we would love to see again, but with the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers, his target share will likely dip. Do yourself a favor, and unless Andrews slips to the end of the 4th round, fill out the rest of your roster and then grab a TE in the 6th or later.
– Josh Hall (IDP Army)

“I’ll preface this all by saying that Mark Andrews is the best non-Travis Kelce tight end to have on your fantasy team — but do you really need him on your fantasy team? Sure, he saw about a third of the Ravens targets last year, but Baltimore also just added a first-round receiver in Zay Flowers and they ponied up quite a bit of cash for Odell Beckham Jr. They’ll also see the return to health (theoretically) of Rashod Bateman, and all three of those players will likely eat into Andrews production (which decreased last season as compared to the year before). I have no issue drafting Andrews if he falls a round or two below his current ADP of 31 — which is right around where players like DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, and D.K. Metcalf are being drafted. If you can wait a bit on tight end (while taking Higgins or someone like that in place of Andrews), you’ll be able to get tight ends like Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts a full three rounds later than Andrews. And if you can wait even longer, you’ll be able to get tight ends like Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet, or Tyler Higbee (all top-10 tight ends last season) a full six-to-eight rounds later. ”
– Nick Raducanu (Dr. Roto)

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

“Dalton Kincaid is the answer for me. His ADP has been TE11 all offseason on Underdog, which feels like the rookie’s year one ceiling. Historically speaking, rookie tight ends struggle; only four have finished in the top 10 in scoring since 2000. Despite some recent successes, the risk outweighs the reward.”
– Ricky Lemon (The Fantasy Champions)

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

“Kyle Pitts is currently going off the board at either TE4 or TE5, depending on what platform you play on. This is on a Falcons team that added Bijan Robinson, who will be used a lot more in the passing game than either Tyler Allgeier or Cordarrelle Patterson were used last year. Add to that the fact that the Falcons were the second-lowest passing offense in the NFL, only passing the ball on 44.71% of plays last season, and I can’t see a huge volume bump for Pitts, who was the TE17 before he departed for the season due to injury. Whilst I can see him hover around TE8-10, I cannot find a path to him finishing in the top 5 of the position in 2023. And, at his ADP, he has to be a hard swerve.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

“The ultimate deception trap in 2023, Kyle Pitts’ talent and profile are extremely alluring, drawing us into thinking he can pay off big at TE5 pricing. After all, the Falcons HAVE to pass more after operating at one of the highest rushing rates in the past decade… right?? While they are likely to pass more, to what extent is the key. Arthur Smith has a renowned love for the ground game, and the Falcons just selected a premier RB prospect in Bijan Robinson – who is talented in the receiving game as well – to further “establish the run.” This is all before mentioning that Desmond Ridder might be certifiably not good as a passer. Too many easy ways for this to go wrong, and there are better options all around him at ADP.”
– David Zach (FantasyPros)

“Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Kyle Pitts as an NFL tight end – I Iove him as an athlete, and I love him as a person. Heck, he even helped my great-grandma carry her groceries across the street just last week! OK, that last part isn’t true, but you get the point. Despite Pitts being an all-around all-world athlete and physical freak, I absolutely HATE him in fantasy football for the 2023 season. Unfortunately, this has nothing to do with Pitts, but it has everything to do with Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder. Smith’s low-volume passing game scheme is a legitimate concern for Pitts in this offense, as is the fact the Falcons HC brought in “his guy” this offseason in former Titans TE Jonnu Smith. While I fully expect Smith to play second-fiddle to Pitts this year, let’s not forget the frequency to which multiple tight ends not named Kyle Pitts saw the field for Atlanta in 2022 (and totaled 45 targets + 34 catches in the process) despite him playing for more than half the season. With Pitts dealing with injuries late last year/into training camp – in addition to this being THE run-heaviest offense in the NFL – there’s only so much fantasy goodness that can go around in this passing attack. With the right quarterback and play-caller, Pitts could rival Travis Kelce as the #1 TE in fantasy. He does not have either, however, and his current draft cost (TE7 ADP) means that fantasy managers are relying on him to be a consistent starter and will again be left disappointed by the end of the season. Let’s not forget the number of targets Bijan Robinson and Drake London will command from Ridder in the passing game, further leaving Pitts with diminished target volume at the TE position.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)

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