Consensus Fantasy Football Busts: Deshaun Watson, George Kittle, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel (2023)

Last week, we asked our FeaturedPros experts for their biggest sleeper in the 2023 fantasy football season. The experts have offered their opinions on who will make your season, but who will break it? This is arguably even more important than who the top sleepers are because one or two busts are all it takes to crush your playoff hopes right out of the gate, especially if those underperformers were taken high in the draft. This week, we asked them for their biggest busts, and they had quite a bit to say.

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Top Consensus Busts

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

“Deshaun Watson is drafted as the QB9, and I just can’t get behind it. His off-field actions make him a pretty easy fade, but reports out of camp have also not been very positive. Add his weak 2022 tape to the equation, and I’m left underwhelmed. I do see the upside if he reverts to his old form, but I’d rather just wait and draft Anthony Richardson.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

George Kittle (TE – SF)

“My biggest bust is George Kittle. His production leaned on the fact that players were injured around him, and Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, played above his profile. With everyone healthy, Brock Purdy having a 50% chance to succeed, and the team leaning on CMC and Deebo before Kittle, Kittle is a risky play at his high ADP.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)

“I want to be a believer in another elite season from George Kittle, but I can’t get behind his exorbitant TD rate. In six seasons, Kittle has never had more than six, and he exceeded that number from Week 13-18 last year. San Francisco should be an incredible offense to get behind this year, but there are so many mouths to feed. Kittle’s 13% TD rate is 3x’s his career average, which just screams TD regression. ”
– Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

“I think George Kittle is going to end up being the biggest bust. Last year, he overproduced in touchdowns, scoring five (!) more than his previous career high. I think that’s bound to go down, and even if you think that Brock Purdy is capable of running this offense, there’s little reason to believe that he’s going to elevate it enough to offset some touchdown regression for Kittle. He also has to compete with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk for targets, so he’s going to have some really bad ‘bust’ games. Right now, he’s going as the TE4 a little behind T.J. Hockenson and a bit ahead of Darren Waller, and I’d take both of those guys two rounds earlier than I’d take Kittle.”
– Leo Sells (Couch Report Sports)

“George Kittle probably won’t repeat a career-high in TDs (11). I’m not sure he gets close, given his usage in a full-strength San Francisco offense. In seven games alongside Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, Kittle managed just a 12.3% target share.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

“I want no part of Najee Harris where he is being taken in 2023 drafts. His usage dropped significantly in his sophomore season, and he only finished as an RB1 three times vs. eight times in 2021. Fantasy GMs are taking a big gamble trusting Harris with such high draft capital as you would need to take him at the end of the second round or third round to acquire. Jaylen Warren will split time with Najee, which makes me ghost Harris in drafts. Guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, or Joe Mixon are much more appealing picks in his draft range.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

“Najee Harris at the start of the third round is a BRUTAL price for a running back who has never ranked above NFL average in terms of efficiency and is only going where he is because of projected volume. To me, that’s the sign of a dead-zone RB, and with the impending threat of Jaylen Warren stealing touches each week, I struggle to see the upside in the mediocre Steelers offense. ”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)

“Najee Harris is a landmine who gamers should avoid at the second and third-round turn. Harris’s fantasy value is entirely derived from a hefty workload to this point in his young career. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Harris has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, 2.9 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) and sprung just 16 rushes for 15-plus yards in his career. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren was better in each efficiency metric as a runner last year. Furthermore, Harris is also an inefficient receiver, posting only 0.77 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) through two years. Warren should cut into Harris’s workload this year, destroying Harris’s fantasy value.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

“The RB position has a number of players to fire into the hopper, starting straight from the top of the heap. McCaffrey & the holdout/contract situations are fairly obvious, but I’ll drift here down to the back-end of the RB1 heap. That brings me to Najee Harris. I like the direction of the offense, and I do believe that the skill position players in PT will allow Kenny Pickett to excel. However, Harris’ role and workload will be challenged from the outset by Jaylen Warren. Warren averaged nearly 5 yards per carry and handled the passing game well as a rookie. Remember, Harris was dealing with a lisfranc injury in ’22, so the door opened for Warren to assume a prominent role and show his abilities. I don’t think that door shuts just because Harris is healthy in ’23. Run the ball and play D. Deploy both backs. Make things easier for Pickett. Win. ”
– Mike Harmon (Swollen Dome)

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

“Deebo Samuel is being taken far too high in drafts. His 2021 season was a total outlier. He scored more TDs in 2021 than in the rest of his career combined, mostly due to usage, which will not occur this season. He averaged 18.2 yards per reception, while in most seasons, he averages under 12. His volume will be threatened by CMC, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and his average depth of target is on a major decline. His ceiling is a low-end WR2, don’t fall for the hype.”
– Ben Wasley (FFD Fantasy Football)

“With Christian McCaffrey around, Deebo Samuel’s workload will never increase. Further, Brandon Aiyuk is emerging steadily as the 49ers’ best receiver with the ever-solid tight end George Kittle. Deebo is kind of the odd man out in this offense. That’s not to say he won’t have big weeks, but the production will likely be unsteady. Deebo will be a player on the short side of a lot of start/sit articles this season.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

“Deebo Samuel is currently #16 on the ECR and #17 in ADP. Deebo has been a top-16 player only twice in the 12 games he played last season. He was 45th or worse four times and scored less than ten PPR points in four games. People are chasing points from 2021 for a player who has had one good fantasy season in four. Brandon Aiyuk is better on a points-per-game basis, and the addition of Christian McCaffrey really lowers Deebo’s upside.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast)

“Deebo Samuel is a great football player, which is very useful for an NFL team and not so much for a fantasy team. He does much of the dirty work on the San Francisco 49ers offense and is a relative Swiss army knife. Unfortunately for Samuel, the 49ers have an up-and-coming Brandon Aiyuk, who will take the next step this year, and the best, most versatile running back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, who will take both carries and catches from the Deebo. At WR #19 (0.5 PPR), Deebo is destined to underperform in comparison to other team WR1s in the league. ”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“Deebo Samuel has a current ADP on sleeper as the WR17 at the beginning of the 4th round. In Deebo’s 4 seasons, he has been better than a WR3 only once. That season was on the back of not only crazy good efficiency but also 8 rushing touchdowns.”
– Bradley Stickler (Sports Gambling Podcast)

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