Welcome to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. We have been waiting so long for this, and we can finally start to set our lineups and get ready to be right and wrong on so many little details. This column will help you to try and navigate the pitfalls and traps of fantasy football, avoiding those who could crater your matchups and pointing you towards those that are safer options instead.
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Week 1 Riskiest & Safest Starts (2023 Fantasy Football)
Riskiest
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Sometimes, when a player is such an obvious pick for a 20% or greater target share, it can feel easy to suggest that they are an obvious start, but Marquise Brown is about to deal with extenuating circumstances above and beyond the usual situations we see. The Arizona Cardinals are far and above any other team to be the favorite for the first overall pick in the 2024 Draft, and that is a fact compounded by their decision to head into Week 1 with no named starter at quarterback.
The Cardinals’ offensive line looks to be terrible, and their quarterback might be Josh Dobbs, who two weeks ago wasn’t a part of the team. Brown is an exciting player, but this is not the situation to start him, particularly when no teams are on bye weeks.
Marquise Brown cost himself a lot of second contract money by requesting a trade out of Baltimore https://t.co/z1WcTJfE11
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) September 1, 2023
Evan Hull (RB – IND)
After all, it could be very tempting to start one of the Colts’ backup running backs in Week 1, with Jonathan Taylor on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Still, it must be remembered that Jonathan Taylor’s backups aren’t the kind of players we would have drafted inside the first 10 rounds if Jonathan Taylor wasn’t on the Colts.
Two years ago, when JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards both tore their ACLs, Ty’Son Williams was rocketing up draft boards, only for drafters to swiftly realize that Williams was a backup who hadn’t warranted the temporary hype, and many regrets were had. This Colts team is in a rebuild, and it’s unlikely they will end up in too many positive game scripts over the coming weeks; assuming that any of the backs from this backfield will be relevant is quite the stretch.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
2022 was a miserable year for the Denver Broncos until Nathaniel Hackett was fired, at which point Russell Wilson turned in two top-five performances within a three-game span. Still, we shouldn’t be so quick to turn Wilson back into a starter, given everything happening with the Broncos.
Throughout this offseason, Sean Payton has invested heavily in the offensive line while also seeing Samaje Perine as a priority pickup in free agency, along with seeing Tim Patrick ruled out for the year and Jerry Jeudy pick up a noteworthy hamstring injury. This Broncos team feels like a run-orientated team, and it will be best to see how well Russ can cook before counting on him.
One of the biggest questions of the NFL season is whether Sean Payton can help Russell Wilson bounce back. Found this detail in @SethWickersham’s great profile of the coach interesting. Wilson’s always taken forever—can Payton speed up his process?https://t.co/EhQBQPYvJw pic.twitter.com/lklCVSwyKx
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 5, 2023
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Speaking of the Broncos, Javonte Williams might be a very tricky proposition for now. By all accounts, Williams is ahead of schedule and has been doing well. Still, there is a difference between being ahead of schedule and being ready to be explosive and return value upon average draft position (ADP).
If Williams was ready to return to his former form, why did the Broncos recently check in with the Colts about the cost of acquiring Jonathan Taylor?
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)
The Eagles gave up the equivalent of a bowl of gruel to acquire D’Andre Swift from the Lions once they decided that the promise of Swift’s upside wasn’t worth dealing with him anymore. Swift ultimately might have more talent and be able to stay the healthiest out of all the Eagles running backs, but it’s fair to point out that the Eagles have a four-strong committee with Swift, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.
With the Eagles playing the Patriots, perhaps they’re kept in neutral script longer than they typically were in 2022, but what will Swift do within this backfield? Penny is healthy and the best fit for the between-the-tackles runner, while Gainwell is the clear option for the hurry-up offense. What is it that Swift does? Let’s wait and see.
Safest
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
The Bengals tried to bring back Samaje Perine on the same contract he ultimately agreed to take from the Denver Broncos. And while that seemed like a show of faith, or lack of, in running back Joe Mixon, now the season is here, and outside of a few backup caliber options, the Bengals seem ready to roll with Mixon, who recently agreed to a cut-price deal to remain with the team.
Mixon might be heading towards his late 20s, an age when we want to avoid running backs, but for now, at age 27, he is the clear three-down workhorse on this Bengals team in a divisional matchup against the Browns. We should be comfortable starting him in Week 1.
Over the last three seasons, Joe Mixon has averaged 18.3 Half-PPR fantasy points per game in wins vs. 12.3 FPG in losses
That's the difference between ~RB4 and ~RB20 in scoring
The Bengals are favored in six-straight games to start their season by an average margin of 5 points
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 4, 2023
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Speaking of running backs on the wrong side of 25, Derrick Henry might finish 2023 on a different team than the Titans, but for now, Mike Vrabel and the Titans seem to be saddling up for one last hurrah, and it starts with Week 1 against the Saints. Henry might not be the spring chicken he once was, but he’s is coming off a career-best 4.5 forced missed tackles per game in 2022, as well as seeing his average time to line of scrimmage hit 2.70, which was the fastest of his seven-year career.
Tyjae Spears might intrude on Henry’s playing time as the season goes on, but if you drafted Henry recently, you absolutely have to be willing to start him in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
Stop me if you’ve heard this record before, but George Kittle is injured and potentially will miss Week 1 with a groin injury. Meanwhile, the Niners will take on the Steelers in Week 1 with a healthy Brock Purdy and a defense potentially missing their star pass-rusher, Nick Bosa. If the offense is in a pass-heavier script, that could favor Samuel more, who is typically a first-read player for the Niners. Even if you drafted Samuel as a WR3, he should be an automatic start this week.
Deebo Samuel is ready to rock our world’s again this season
pic.twitter.com/Rclo4Qayvb— JAY® (@JayLGK) September 4, 2023
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
In 2022, Justin Herbert‘s average depth of target (aDOT) dropped to a miserable near-league low of 6.4 yards per attempt as he dealt with rib injuries and a series of injuries for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Still, when the two star wide receivers eventually took the field, Herbert’s aDOT jumped to 7.6 yards per attempt, a far more agreeable amount for fantasy production.
When Allen was healthy down the stretch, he averaged 17.2 point per reception (PPR) points per game and was a fantasy star. With the Chargers playing a Dolphins defense depleted of Jalen Ramsey in Week 1, Allen is an auto-start.
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