Although it’s too early to take a definitive stance on any player’s long-term outlook after Week 1, there are plenty of takeaways to make use of. A player’s usage in Week 1 can be as telling, or more so, than their performance. We shouldn’t overreact to either one just yet, but it’s important to be aware of usage, performance, and where a player is trending. So, let’s get into it.
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9 Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers (2023)
Risers
I have high hopes for Brandon Aiyuk in his fourth season and wrote about him as a player being drafted as a WR3 with WR1 upside. He showed why on Sunday, to the tune of eight catches for 129 yards and two scores while finishing the day as fantasy’s WR1. Aiyuk drew eight targets, good enough to lead the team and one more than Deebo Samuel.
There are playmakers all over the 49ers offense, but it never made sense for a young, ascending receiver coming off a 1,000-yard season to be going as a WR3. It’s not hyperbolic to believe that this is the beginning of Aiyuk overtaking Samuel as the team’s top target.
Another one of my guys this offseason, Calvin Ridley, dusted off his cleats and showed out with 101 yards and a touchdown on eight grabs. He was Trevor Lawrence‘s favorite target all day, with the quarterback throwing his way 11 times, and picked up right where he left off in 2021. Ridley was open often, but his 34% target share is most encouraging. He far outpaced Christian Kirk‘s three targets, while Zay Jones was next closest with seven.
Ridley should be in the WR1 mix all season and likely beyond.
The former first-round pick has a lot to prove as he takes the reigns from Aaron Rodgers, and there has been no shortage of doubters. Jordan Love got off to a good start on Sunday, finishing as the QB3 with 245 yards and three scores. Love completed 15 of 27 passes without throwing an interception and looked sharp as the Packers cruised by the Bears.
Rodgers owned the Bears, and Love may just be leasing them for now, but it’s an encouraging start regardless.
As a fifth-round rookie, Puka Nacua generated some buzz during training camp and got his opportunity with Cooper Kupp on the shelf. Nacua made the most of it, delivering 10 catches and 119 yards on a whopping 15 targets. His 21.9 fantasy points were eighth-most among wide receivers through Sunday’s games. With Kupp going to the injured reserve list (IR), there will be plenty more opportunities, but the depth chart is thin, and Nacua has a great chance at carving out a big role even after Kupp returns.
Gainwell had a decent day, carrying 14 times for 54 yards and catching four passes for 20 yards while posting 11.4 fantasy points. More importantly, Gainwell got the start at running back for the Eagles, who made Rashaad Penny a healthy scratch. D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott combined for two carries and three targets, allowing Gainwell to operate as the clear lead back.
It wasn’t a surprise to see him draw the start, but many expected a full-blown committee approach. If Gainwell keeps ahold of this role, his value is due for a major spike.
Fallers
Many pegged Rachaad White as a breakout player this season, but I had him as one of my overvalued running backs. White was wildly inefficient last season, a trend that continued Sunday. He finished with 39 yards on 17 carries and negative 38 rushing yards over expectation, adding in two catches for 10 yards.
The only path to Rachaad White finishing as an RB2 is an unlimited amount of dump-off passes from Baker Mayfield. Still, Sean Tucker saw the same number of targets on Sunday and may take away passing work as the season continues.
There was some optimism that Antonio Gibson would operate as Washington’s receiving back this season and that we may even see a split backfield between him and Brian Robinson. That was not the way it played out on Sunday, with Gibson toting the rock 19 times compared to Gibson’s three, which was the same amount as Chris Rodriguez. Not only that, Gibson saw one target while Robinson saw two, and Gibson’s playing time was limited following his fumble.
Gibson has been disappointing for those who were very high on him entering the NFL, and it seems that ever-elusive breakout may still be out of reach.
It’s only one game, so no need to fully panic when it comes to Drake London’s one-target, zero-catch game in Week 1. The one target is concerning, however, particularly considering the Falcons threw just 18 passes. With two good running backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the team is built to run the football. Robinson will command his share of targets, and Kyle Pitts is a weapon himself, which is a lot to ask Desmond Ridder to support in the passing game on that kind of volume. We are likely in store for an up and down season for London.
You could include Kadarius Toney on this list, who I’ve admittedly been high on, but at least he was banged up and limited in action. Skyy Moore found himself with zero catches after seeing three targets on Thursday night, adding one rush for four yards. In a game with no Travis Kelce, a banged-up Toney, and Patrick Mahomes practically begging a receiver to step up, you’d hope that Moore could have done something positive to kickstart his second NFL season.
Until another receiver or two get going in this offense, Moore will have a chance to make a mark, but it’s a tough start to the season after an underwhelming rookie year.
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