After Week 1, everyone tells you not to overreact. It’s only one week, but by the time Week 3 is finished, we’re well into the fantasy football season, and it’s time to get busy or die trying.

Each week, we look at the safest and riskiest starts to help you prepare for all the action. Here are Week 4’s best and worst options.

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8 Risky & Safe Fantasy Football Starts: Week 4 (2023)

Riskiest

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) vs. Jaguars

With the ever-growing popularity of the NFL overseas, we see anomalies and stats that, generally, we might not pay attention to. One of those stats you should prepare yourself to hear in Week 4 is that Kyle Pitts has scored in London in 100% of his appearances there. Unfortunately for Pitts, that totals one appearance almost two years ago in his rookie season. Across Pitts’ 30 NFL appearances, he has totaled three touchdowns, a total that was beaten by 29 other tight ends in 2022 alone. Pitts was billed as a difference maker at a position where players are routinely touchdown-dependant, but he simply isn’t a touchdown scorer for the near future until Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder are shown the door.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) vs. Cardinals

The 49ers have a wealth of talent at almost every position, and it makes very little sense to rush a player like Brandon Aiyuk back from injury when the Niners’ hopes rest and fall upon the ability to make a deep playoff run. Aiyuk missed the Week 3 fixture against the New York Giants with a shoulder injury after securing 14 targets in the opening two games, turning them into 172 receiving yards and two touchdowns. This play becomes risky because the Niners play one of the worst defenses in the league, the Arizona Cardinals. The Niners should have far and away enough talent to beat the Cardinals without leaning into Aiyuk’s talents, and a savvy head coach would choose this opportunity to rest a player on the cusp of a breakout.

Marvin Mims (WR – DEN) vs. Bears

When it comes to yards per route run, Marvin Mims leads all NFL wide receivers with 7.2, a total that leads 151 other wide receivers through three weeks. Unfortunately for Mims, he ranks 118th in route participation at a 22% rate. It’s unclear why Mims isn’t playing more so far when he’s truly flashed to date, but trying to roll him out into your starting lineup for Week 4 would be a difficult decision when it’s been clear that Sean Payton doesn’t view him as an every down player right now. Russell Wilson‘s days may be numbered.

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS) vs. Eagles

The Commanders’ offense is the very definition of unsexy, playing into a rookie quarterback with mediocre levels of upside while hoping the supporting cast will do enough to keep everyone in a job for one more year at the most. What does feel secure, for now at least, is Brian Robinson’s role. Over the last 12 weeks of NFL football, only Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb have more 10+ yard carries than Robinson. Over Robinson’s last 15 NFL games, he has touched the ball 9, 17, 22, 8, 15, 26, 15, 21, 23, 13, 23, 25, 21, 21 and 10 times. Robinson is simply the cheapest workhorse running back you can acquire right now, and with a matchup against the Eagles defense, you might be able to acquire him cheaply.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. Chiefs

The Jets are in a state of denial deeper than anything Aaron Rodgers has ever perpetuated, given that they still continue to roll out Zach Wilson as the starting quarterback and force players like Garrett Wilson to go out there and try to catch uncatchable targets from an at best, XFL quarterback. Wilson’s promising career is ticking over, with him now averaging 10.0 PPR points in games with Zach Wilson and 17.29 in those with other quarterbacks playing. The Chief’s defense has allowed a 48% catch rate to wide receivers through three games, which is the second-best amount. Look for the Chiefs’ defense to destroy this Jet’s offense line and make Garrett Wilson’s Week 4 a very painful one.

Safest Starts

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) vs. Raiders

The Chargers’ veteran wide receiver has been wide receiver one overall for the last two weeks running, and the last time he finished outside of the top 30 wide receivers was Week 7 of 2022 when he played only 32% of the snaps. Allen is simply an alpha wide receiver right now, and with Mike Williams lost to an ACL injury, Allen’s uptick is only going to get stronger. Regardless of opposition, we’re talking about a top 10 wide receiver for the rest of the season.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) vs. Bills

During the offseason, people would grumble about the fact that Tagovailoa could possibly retire at any given point, and fantasy managers would be left holding the bag. Since then, Tua has been the QB1, QB26 and QB2 overall in fantasy points as his gel with Mike McDaniel’s system continues to flourish. Through three weeks, Tua is first in yards per attempt (10.1), first in passer rating (121.9), sixth in completion percentage (71.3) and first in PFF QB grades. The Dolphins face the Bills in Week 4, who have faced the fewest pass attempts through three weeks (75) but also haven’t really been tested. The Dolphins will do that, and you should have faith in them on the back of the demolition of Denver.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Titans

It was fair to worry about the Bengals’ offense before Week 3. After all, he totaled 17.2 PPR points while the Bengals offense looked truly awful, and everyone and their mother had questions about Joe Burrow‘s health. After Week 3’s comfortable destruction of the LA Rams, where Chase totaled 12 touches for 141 yards, Chase reestablished himself as one of the true alphas of the NFL. In Week 4, the Bengals face the pass-funnel Titans defense, who are solid against the run but have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (149.8), along with the fourth most receiving yardage (684) and the fourth-highest catch rate (75%). The Titans simply can’t stop the Bengals, and Chase is a layup start this week.