8 Fantasy Football Players Trending Up & Down (Week 4)

This will be objective and based on the numbers. We check the personal bias and wish-casting at the door, and we look at the data and dive in. Let’s take a look at fantasy football players trending up and down as we prepare for Week 4.

Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers

Trending up

Marquise Brown (WR-ARI)

Marquise Brown’s last 2 weeks have stood out:

Air%: 50.27%
Target% 34%
2 TDs
10.86 aDOT
94% snap% or better each week
3 of 5 RZ targets (60%)

The offense is not elite or even great but the usage is there we know the talent is as well. You could have worse options as your flex or as a backup wide receiver for depth and bye weeks.

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

What more is there to say about Sam LaPorta? He was a target hog this week (11 – 35.48 target%) and hauled in eight of them for 84 yards and a deep touchdown. He is proving to be reliable in the short game but can be a difference-maker and a playmaker for the Lions as we saw on that deep catch. With the tight end position being what it is so far, LaPorta has been impressive and is a huge boost to those who waited on a tight end.

Zack Moss (RB-IND)

The usage is off the charts. Among all running backs in the league, Zack Moss ranks:

2nd in snap%: 84.9%
1st in 3rd down snap%: 100%
1st in opp%: 42%
1st in carry%: 90.6%
1st in RBCarry%: 90.6%
Getting all the passing down and red zone work. He is getting all the touches he can handle weekly.

Tank Dell (WR-HOU)

In Week 3 he led receivers in target% (24.14%), air% (55.74%), aDOT (19.43), and receptions (5). This is the second straight week of Dell trending up and has dominated the usage among receivers. The big play ability is there and this team is a team that needs to throw to create scoring opportunities with the run game being a bit of a mess right now.

Romeo Doubs (WR-GB)

Romeo Doubs is trending in the right direction. The snaps and usage took a big step forward in Week 3:

3 straight weeks of increased snap%: 48%/76%/86%
Led receivers in Week 3 in, Air% (30.78%), snap% (86%), and target% (27.91%)
Highest route total of the season: 43 – more than weeks 1 and 2 combined.

Trending down

Khalil Herbert (RB-CHI)

Khalil Herbert has not lived up to draft day cost. There is no clear path to getting there either given the current utilization of this offense.

He is almost splitting the snaps evenly with Roschon Johnson
Only 2 of the 10 red zone rush attempts. Justin Fields and Johnson eat into these more than you’d like.
Get’s half the 3rd down snaps (50%)
Only 32.4% of all the Bears’ rush attempts and if you only look at running back carries he only gets 51.1% of those.

Ultimately, it is difficult to bank on a player with limited opportunities in a bad offense with a run-first quarterback.

Joshua Kelley (RB-LAC)

Joshua Kelley is the guy right now. Garnering at least 73% of the snaps or more in the last 2 weeks but has done nothing with this increased opportunity. Not to mention this is a team that often needs to pass to stay in games and he lacks the same level of passing game utilization that Austin Ekeler has. Kelley with only three targets over three weeks is less than ideal. He is more of the touchdown-or-bust type moving forward given the lack of passing game usage and success as strictly a runner in the early going.

Juwan Johnson (TE-NO)

He is dominating the snaps among the tight ends on this team – at least 70% snap% in each week. The issue is the lack of a role in the passing game.

Only 1 red zone target of the 17 total
T-3rd on the team in target%: 11.88%
4th on the team in Air%: 7.56%
Only 7 receptions for 61 yards through 3 weeks. He is not a focal point of this offense by any means.

Now with Derek Carr having shoulder issues, this could make things worse.

On the Peripheral

These are simply players to keep your eye on as we enter Week 4.

Josh Downs (WR-IND)

Downs is becoming a PPR asset. Still more of the deeper league variety but getting peppered with targets and is the slot guy scooping up all the short-yard passes. Has become the clear No. 2 option behind Michael Pittman Jr. and should continue to provide more of a floor than ceiling in full PPR formats

Kyle Pitts (TE-ATL)

Paced all pass catchers in Week 3 in multiple areas. We know the talent is there but can the production ever become consistent?

D.J. Moore (WR-CHI)

Another year where the QB play is crushing him. Moore is as talented a wide receiver as a team could ask for but he can only do so much about his QB play. Moore will go as Fields goes and is likely to be inconsistent in the process.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN)

He is still the most targeted receiver on this team but he is not doing a whole lot with these targets. This passing game has yet to get going but whenever they do get on the same page Hopkins could become a consistent producer until then proceed with caution.

-Mike Kurland