Week 1 of professional football is finally here! We have spent the months of the offseason researching and mock drafting to ensure we have the most stacked roster in our leagues when the season comes.
Now that it’s here, we must make the correct decisions to help build the optimal lineup to win our week. Whether you play redraft, dynasty or even DFS, this article will provide stats to help you decide which player should be in your Week 1 lineup.
Let’s get it started.
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Seven Stats To Know Before Setting Your Week 1 Lineup
1. Antonio Gibson: The PPR Machine
This week, the Washington Commanders face the Arizona Cardinals. New head coach Jonathan Gannon came from Philadelphia and brought the motto of the 76ers: “Trust The Process.” With that motto in mind, they have been on a fire sale all preseason. This game could get ugly fast, especially for the Arizona defense.
As a fantasy manager, these are the moments we love to see fall in our laps. Now, we understand the Commanders have multiple running backs. However, Antonio Gibson is the explosive playmaker of the two running backs in Washington, and now he profiles as the sole pass-catching back with the departure of J.D. McKissic.
Gibson will face a defense this week that allowed the most receiving touchdowns to running backs last season. That same defense also allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs and third-most receptions. When it was all said and done, the Cardinals allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to running backs. With the defense getting worse this offseason, expect more of the same to start 2023 and start Gibson in Week 1.
2. We’re on To Cincinnati
The Bengals’ pass-catching options, specifically Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, could be in for a spectacular day against the Cleveland Browns’ defense. The Browns’ new defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, loves to show the opponent a ton of single-high coverage so he can bring extra players into the box.
Joe Burrow is incredible vs. single-high coverage. He is first in yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt (YPA) and has the best TD rate. We understand there is concern about Burrow dealing with the injury he sustained in the preseason, especially against this potent pass-rushing scheme. However, if you drafted two quarterbacks to play it safe because you took Burrow early, you need to roll the dice because this could be a ceiling game for Burrow, Chase, Higgins and even Tyler Boyd.
3. The Vikings Volume King Will Be Crowned Week 1
Alexander Mattison has taken over this backfield after the departure of Dalvin Cook and instantly became the subject of multiple debates on Twitter (or is it X?). Mattison has an average draft position (ADP) of 60, landing him in the running back dead zone. His first matchup is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which used to strike fear in the heart of fantasy managers.
Do not let that scare you, as Mattison will receive the volume you need to land that victory in Week 1. Why are we so confident? Last season, Dalvin Cook, even with Mattison on the roster, reached his highest snap percentage (72%) of his entire NFL career. The Vikings will lean heavily on one running back, with the rest only filling in for brief spells. With the Minnesota defense still on the lower end of talent in the NFL, the offense will have to continue producing at a faster pace, allowing Mattison to receive volume and ceiling potential weekly.
In Week 1, he faces the Buccaneers’ defense that has injuries on all three levels, including to Calijah Kancey, SirVocea Dennis and Antoine Winfield Jr. These injuries should allow for the potential of explosive plays to walk hand in hand with the volume Mattison should receive Week 1.
If that doesn’t excite you, the Buccaneers were tied for the third most receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs in 2022. The defense will have their hands full with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, allowing Mattison to land a mismatch on most routes.
4. Death, Taxes & DK Metcalf Producing Against the Los Angeles Rams
Dk Metcalf is one of the best wide receivers in the game and always has the potential to create a high-ceiling production level for our fantasy teams. Metcalf gets to face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. The Rams no longer have Jalen Ramsey, and Seattle’s sensational rookie, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, will not be fully healthy.
This means that Metcalf should be a lock in your lineups this week, no matter who else you have on your roster. Metcalf averages over 4.5 receptions, 65 yards and half a touchdown – good for 14 FPPG average – when facing the Rams. Even if you are loaded at your wide receiver position, ensure Metcalf is in your lineups for Week 1.
5. Gerald Everett: the Secret Slot Weapon for Justin Herbert
Last season, Gerald Everett had a career-high in yards after the catch with 361. With Everett possessing athletic stats such as an 87th percentile 40-yard dash, 73rd percentile speed score and a 93rd percentile burst score, Everett is the unspoken weapon in this Los Angeles Chargers offense. This season, Everett should be used more in the aggressive, tight-end-loving scheme of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
The Chargers also face a Miami Dolphins defense that allowed the third-most receptions to tight ends, eighth-most yards and third-most touchdowns to the position last season. The Dolphins also allowed the fourth most FPPG (9.1) to tight ends. Combine that with Everett seeing the eighth-most slot snaps and nine-most overall routes run at the position, and he could be a sneaky week-winning tight end in this looming shootout in Los Angeles.
6. Luke Musgrave, Talented but Risky in Week 1
If you read any of my work, you know that I am the drumline leader for Luke Musgrave. His size and athletic profile are the perfect combination for fantasy success. However, in Week 1, you should fade this stellar rookie. The Bears’ defense allowed the second-fewest receptions, third-fewest yards and fifth-fewest FPPG to the tight end position a year ago.
7. David vs. Goliath in New England
All games are won in the battle at the line. This motto could be a worrying thought if you roster any of the Patriots’ offensive players. In 2022, the Patriots gave up the most sacks of any Patriots team in the last decade. Also, in 2022, The Philadelphia Eagles had four players reach double-digit sacks.
We enter 2023, and the Patriots’ offensive line is struggling with injury and production, while the Philadelphia Eagles have added Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. It could be a long day for Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of this Patriots offense. Week 1 may be a “fade all Patriots” narrative.
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