Welcome to Week 4 and now that we have three weeks of research, we can build a pattern to help us identify how to build our lineups across all fantasy football formats. Some of these stats may seem simple, but they will help you decide how to attack your lineup and what you may face in your opponent’s lineup. Please read through them all to guarantee success in your fantasy leagues. Plus, that third one is a real eye-opener (That is what we call a professional tease!)
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6 Stats to Know Before Setting Your Lineup: Week 4 (2023)
It’s The Motion Of Miami’s Ocean
Did you know that according to ESPN’s Sports Analytics member Seth Walder, the Miami Dolphins used motion in 59% of plays in 2023? The Miami Dolphins are one of the fastest teams in the league and now Mike McDaniel is incorporating an arena football “running start” into plays. Imagine having to catch Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill when they are playing above the “0-60” style of most plays used in the NFL. If teams have no answer for this style of play, leaning into all of the Miami Dolphins offense, regardless of competition across the field, is the clever play for your lineup in all fantasy football formats.
Jerome Ford The Human Pinball Machine
Jerome Ford has only 41 carries but already has seven broken tackles. Ford’s counterpoint, Kareem Hunt, is also dealing with several injuries after his return to the NFL. With this combination, Jerome Ford should continue to dominate as an RB2 for your lineup, and you can play him confidently, knowing that in the red zone, Ford has a chance to break through for a touchdown.
Can The Real Dameon Pierce Please Stand Up?
Dameon Pierce entered this season with the title “workhorse back” slapped to his fantasy value by a plethora of fantasy football analysts. Thankfully, I wasn’t one of those analyst. He has struggled, to say the least, to start the year. One stat that proves his struggle is his Rushing Yards Before Contact Per Attempt. Dameon Pierce averages just 1.4 yards, while Devin Singletary averages 2.4, a full yard better than the starting running back.
What does this stat mean? Well, this stat leans on two different areas: the offensive line and a running back vision. Since Singletary is more efficient, we can’t blame the offensive line solely. Instead, let’s focus on Dameon Pierce and question whether he is a good player or a JAG (just another guy). He struggled to be efficient last season and only created fantasy value because of volume. With only 20 more carries than Singletary and only 30 more yards than his counterpart, Pierce should be reevaluated by the fantasy football community.
The Air Raid Attack Continues In New Orleans
Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and may be unable to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. If that happens, we have Jameis Winston waiting in the wings to help propel the Saints to a division victory. However, does that mean the offense needs to change with Winston under center?
We don’t believe so. Derek Carr had a deep throw % that was second in the NFL (behind limited plays by Mike White) at 18.5%. Jameis Winston, in his limited time, hit 12.5% in the same statistic. Winston may have a chance at a revenge game against his former team, although he only threw for 234 yards last time. This time, Jameis Winston has Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, a healthy Michael Thomas and a fresh from-suspension Alvin Kamara. Pay attention to this gunslinger if he has to take over the reins for Carr this weekend.
Happily Ever After In LA
The partnership between Justin Herbert and Kellen Moore is off to an incredible start for the 2023 NFL season. Herbert has landed himself in the early MVP talks with his stats and has shown he can lead an explosive offense. The LA Chargers’ offense has molded to Moore’s system, which leans on being aggressive and playing downfield. Let’s break down a few stats about Justin Herbert’s game.
First, Justin Herbert has increased his average target depth by almost two yards. Herbert’s ADOT is 8.37 in 2023. These stats reveal that Herbert will earn us bundles of fantasy points on every throw.
Herbert also utilizes the RPO game more this season (even with Austin Ekeler injured). Last season, Herbert used RPO 3.4% of the time. In 2023, Herbert used RPO 9.87% of the time. The beautiful part of an RPO game is how your first target is usually hyper-targeted on those plays. Usually, you hyper-target your best player. Enter Keenan Allen. Especially after the season-ending injury to Mike Williams, utilizing Keenan Allen will be critical to Herbert’s success. Right now, Herbert is completing 1st read throws at a 71.1% clip. As fantasy football managers, we should expect this pairing to reach Stafford/Megatron levels this season, especially with how Kellen Moore loves to use the slot wide receiver.
This pairing is a match made in heaven for the LA Chargers.
Tua To Tyreek Will Never Slow Down
The Alpha and the Omega of this article is the Miami Dolphins. Right now, as an offense, they are the beginning and the end of any statistical article. We just spoke of first reads within an offense and a quarterback who loves to target that first read. Well, Tua Tagovialoa is one of those quarterbacks. Tua targets his first read 80% of the time, and why wouldn’t he? His first target is Tyreek Hill and as we discussed before, they are using motion at an unreal pace. Stopping a speed demon like Tyreek Hill is hard enough before you add the extra motion. With Tua targeting Tyreek Hill so much, the opposing cornerback must also have world-class endurance to survive the whole game. The Miami Dolphins have taken speed to another level in the NFL.
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Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter (X) at @jpep20. Good luck with Week four and let’s get those wins!