6 Players the Experts Target & Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Preseason is fun, but we’re ready for the good stuff. Another week or so of fantasy drafts, and then we’ll be watching NFL games that count.

As we enter the home stretch of fantasy draft season, FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing players in whom they’ve gained or lost confidence over the last month, how to handle the Buccaneers’ top fantasy performers, favorite late-round targets and more. Here’s the full article, and below we dive into one of the sections.

Here’s a chance to offer some final words to fantasy managers who have drafts this week. Which one player do you most want to urge them to draft, and why? Which one player do you most want to urge them NOT to draft, and why?

Andrew Erickson: Just draft Nick Chubb. The Browns have no idea what the RB2 situation is behind him. Jerome Ford was supposed to be the guy, but he’s been hurt all preseason. I’m guessing that’s why they traded for Pierre Strong — after he failed to separate in Patriots training camp. The answer to the Browns backfield is to just draft Nick Chubb.

You can’t draft Jerry Jeudy right now … and this is coming from somebody who has been extremely high on Jeudy throughout the process. But this hamstring injury has barely moved his ADP. In two recent drafts I was in, Jeudy was drafted as the WR28 and WR32. You need way more of a discount than that for a guy with a severe hamstring injury. I will not consider Jeudy until his price matches that of at least a fantasy WR4.

Derek Brown: In the second round of every draft, select Tony Pollard and thank me at the end of the year. Pollard is the easiest second-round pick in recent memory. He has been mispriced all offseason. Pollard is Austin Ekeler 2.0. Don’t miss out on a league-winning second-round pick.

Don’t look now, but Jaylen Warren has been a big-play machine for Pittsburgh anytime he has touched the ball. Najee Harris might open as the team’s workhorse, but I doubt he will keep that role all season long. Warren’s talent is too great to deny. He’s too explosive to keep off the field, especially on passing downs, where he’s already proven to be the better receiver. Harris is a must-avoid in all drafts.

Pat Fitzmaurice: As a rookie, Drake London had a 29.4% target share and was targeted on 32.4% of his pass routes. He averaged 2.07 yards per route run — 14th-best among receivers with at least 30 catches. Yes, the Falcons will be run-heavy, and QB Desmond Ridder is a mystery box. I don’t care. London is a 6-4, 219-pound velociraptor who had a wildly impressive rookie year as a 21-year-old despite iffy QB play. Don’t overthink it.

I can’t understand why people are drafting Jerick McKinnon in the middle rounds of managed (non-best-ball) leagues. McKinnon averaged 4.2 carries and 7.5 touches a game last season. It’s nice that he’s involved in the passing game, but while McKinnon had 56 catches for 512 yards last season, there were only five games in which he had more than three receptions. And McKinnon’s TD production in 2022 was downright fluky. He scored 10 TDs on 128 touches last year. That’s not happening again. If you draft McKinnon in a managed league, good luck figuring out when to start him because touchdowns are wildly unpredictable, and McKinnon simply doesn’t get enough touches for you to ever feel entirely comfortable plugging him into your lineup.